Quasi-stationarity in populations that are subject to large-scale mortality or emigration

We shall examine a model, first studied by Brockwell et al. [Adv Appl Probab 14 (1982) 709.], which can be used to describe the longterm behaviour of populations that are subject to catastrophic mortality or emigration events. Populations can suffer dramatic declines when disease, such as an introduced virus, affects the population, or when food shortages occur, due to overgrazing or fluctuations in rainfall. However, perhaps surprisingly, such populations can survive for long periods and, although they may eventually become extinct, they can exhibit an apparently stationary regime. It is useful to be able to model this behaviour. This is particularly true of the ecological examples that motivated the present study, since, in order to properly manage these populations, it is necessary to be able to predict persistence times and to estimate the conditional probability distribution of population size. We shall see that although our model predicts eventual extinction, the time till extinction can be long and the stationary exhibited by these populations over any reasonable time scale can be explained using a quasistationary distribution. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Forced emigration, favourable outcomes

The discipline of public health and preventive medicine in Australia and New Zealand had its genesis in the advocacy of 18th and 19th century military pioneers. Military (Royal Navy and British Army) surgeons were posted to Australia as part of their non-discretionary duty. Civilian doctors emigrated variously for adventure, escapism and gold fever. One group, a particularly influential group disproportionate to their numbers, came in one sense as forced emigrants because of chronic respiratory disease in general, and tuberculosis in particular. Tuberculosis was an occupational hazard of 19th century medical and surgical practice throughout western Europe. This paper analyses six examples of such emigration which had, perhaps unforeseen at the time, significant results in the advancement of public health. Such emigration was in one sense voluntary, but in another was forced upon the victims in their quest for personal survival. In Australia, such medical individuals became leading advocates and successful catalysts for change in such diverse fields as social welfare, public health, the preventive aspects of medical practice, child health, nutrition and medical education. A number of such public health pioneers today have no physical memorials; but their influence is to be seen in the ethos of medical practice in Australia and New Zealand today. Their memory is further perpetuated in the names of Australian native wildflowers and trees that symbolise not only a healthy environment but the longterm investment, accrued with interest, of the institution of public health measures for which their advocacy achieved much success.

Permian Palynofloral Assemblages of the Chaco-Paraná Basin (Argentina): Systematics and Stratigraphic Significance

Core samples from an upper Palaeozoic, partly glaciogene borehole section (Ordóñez: YPF Cd O es-1) in the southern Chaco-Paraná Basin (Córdoba Province, northeastern Argentina) have produced variable palynological results. Samples from the lower part of the section (i.e., from the diamictite-bearing upper Ordóñez Formation) proved non-palyniferous. Those from the overlying, essentially post-glacial Victoriano Rodríguez Formation yielded spore-pollen assemblages in varying concentrations and in good to excellent states of preservation, thus providing the material basis for the present account. The palynomorph taxa represented in the assemblages comprise 20 species of spores (distributed among 14 genera) and 25 species of pollen grains (14 genera). The majority of the species are described in systematic detail. One trilete spore species -Convolutispora archangelskyi- is newly proposed. Several other, possibly new species (three of trilete spores, one of monosaccate pollen) are represented insufficiently for other than informal naming. The following new combinations, also of trilete spore species, are instituted: Converrucosisporites confluens (Archangelsky & Gamerro, 1979), C. micronodosus (Balme & Hennelly, 1956), and Anapiculatisporites tereteangulatus (Balme & Hennelly, 1956). Sculptural intergradation (granulate through verrucate) among three species -Granulatisporites austroamericanus Archangelsky & Gamerro, 1979, C. confluens, and C. micronodosus- prompts their informal grouping, proposed herein, as the Converrucosisporites confluens Morphon, which is also recognizable elsewhere in the Gondwanan Permian. The possibility, if not the likelihood, that G. austroamericanus is conspecific with Microbaculispora tentula Tiwari, 1965 is canvassed. The palynologically productive borehole section of the Victoriano Rodríguez Formation studied here is assignable to the middle to upper Cristatisporites Zone and to the succeeding Striatites Zone, thus signifying an Early Permian age for this section and facilitating correlation with strata of the Paraná and Paganzo Basins. From this and prior work, the Ordóñez well sequence embracing the Ordóñez and Victoriano Rodríguez Formations includes, in addition to the latter two zones, the preceding (late Pennsylvanian) Potonieisporites-Lundbladispora Zone which is known from the lower to mid-upper part of the Ordóñez Formation. Thus, the Carboniferous-Permian boundary can be inferred to lie within the upper part of the latter formation