Power generation investment opportunities evaluation: A comparison between net present value and real options approach

To evaluate an investment project in the competitive electricity market, there are several key factors that affects the project's value: the present value that the project could bring to investor, the possible future course of actions that investor has and the project's management flexibility. The traditional net present value (NPV) criteria has the ability to capture the present value of the project's future cash flow, but it fails to assess the value brought by market uncertainty and management flexibility. By contrast with NPV, the real options approach (ROA) method has the advantage to combining the uncertainty and flexibility in evaluation process. In this paper, a framework for using ROA to evaluate the generation investment opportunity has been proposed. By given a detailed case study, the proposed framework is compared with NPV and showing a different results

Modern environmental improvement pathways for the coal power generation industry in Australia

In this work we assess the pathways for environmental improvement by the coal utilization industry for power generation in Australia. In terms of resources, our findings show that coal is a long term resource of concern as coal reserves are likely to last for the next 500 years or more. However, our analysis indicates that evaporation losses of water in power generation will approach 1000 Gl (gigalitres) per year, equivalent to a consumption of half of the Australian residential population. As Australia is the second driest continent on earth, water consumption by power generators is a resource of immediate concern with regards to sustainability. We also show that coal will continue to play a major role in energy generation in Australia and, hence, there is a need to employ new technologies that can minimize environmental impacts. The major technologies to reduce impacts to air, water and soils are addressed. Of major interest, there is a major potential for developing sequestration processes in Australia, in particular by enhanced coal bed methane (ECBM) recovery at the Bowen Basin, South Sydney Basin and Gunnedah Basin. Having said that, CO2 capture technologies require further development to support any sequestration processes in order to comply with the Kyoto Protocol. Current power generation cycles are thermodynamic limited, with 35-40% efficiencies. To move to a high efficiency cycle, it is required to change technologies of which integrated gasification combined cycle plus fuel cell is the most promising, with efficiencies expected to reach 60-65%. However, risks of moving towards an unproven technology means that power generators are likely to continue to use pulverized fuel technologies, aiming at incremental efficiency improvements (business as usual). As a big picture pathway, power generators are likely to play an increasing role in regional development; in particular EcoParks and reclaiming saline water for treatment as pressures to access fresh water supplies will significantly increase.

Sustainability metrics for coal power generation in Australia

The basis of this work was to investigate the relative environmental impacts of various power generators knowing that all plants are located in totally different environments and that different receptors will experience different impacts. Based on IChemE sustainability metrics paradigm, we calculated potential environmental indicators (P-EI) that represent the environmental burden of masses of potential pollutants discharged into different receiving media. However, a P-EI may not be of significance, as it may not be expressed at all in different conditions, so to try and include some receiver significance we developed a methodology to take into account some specific environmental indicators (S-EI) that refer to the environmental attributes of a specific site. In this context, we acquired site specific environmental data related to the airsheds and water catchment areas in different locations for a limited number of environmental indicators such as human health (carcinogenic) effects, atmospheric acidification, photochemical (ozone) smog and eutrophication. The S-EI results from this particular analysis show that atmospheric acidification has highest impact value while health risks due to fly ash emissions are considered not to be as significant. This is due to the fact that many coal power plants in Australia are located in low population density air sheds. The contribution of coal power plants to photochemical (ozone) smog and eutrophication were not significant. In this study, we have considered emission related data trends to reflect technology performance (e.g., P-EI indicators) while a real sustainability metric can be associated only with the specific environmental conditions of the relevant sites (e.g., S-EI indicators).

Optimization of pipeline transport for CO2 sequestration

Coal fired power generation will continue to provide energy to the world for the foreseeable future. However, this energy use is a significant contributor to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and, hence, global warming. Capture and disposal Of CO2 has received increased R&D attention in the last decade as the technology promises to be the most cost effective for large scale reductions in CO2 emissions. This paper addresses CO2 transport via pipeline from capture site to disposal site, in terms of system optimization, energy efficiency and overall economics. Technically, CO2 can be transported through pipelines in the form of a gas, a supercritical. fluid or in the subcooled liquid state. Operationally, most CO2 pipelines used for enhanced oil recovery transport CO2 as a supercritical fluid. In this paper, supercritical fluid and subcooled liquid transport are examined and compared, including their impacts on energy efficiency and cost. Using a commercially available process simulator, ASPEN PLUS 10.1, the results show that subcooled liquid transport maximizes the energy efficiency and minimizes the Cost Of CO2 transport over long distances under both isothermal and adiabatic conditions. Pipeline transport of subcooled liquid CO2 can be ideally used in areas of cold climate or by burying and insulating the pipeline. In very warm climates, periodic refrigeration to cool the CO2 below its critical point of 31.1 degrees C, may prove economical. Simulations have been used to determine the maximum safe pipeline distances to subsequent booster stations as a function of inlet pressure, environmental temperature and ground level heat flux conditions. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The role of carbon in fuel cells

Carbon possesses unique electrical and structural properties that make it an ideal material for use in fuel cell construction. In alkaline, phosphoric acid and proton-exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs), carbon is used in fabricating the bipolar plate and the gas-diffusion layer. It can also act as a support for the active metal in the catalyst layer. Various forms of carbon - from graphite and carbon blacks to composite materials - have been chosen for fuel-cell components. The development of carbon nanotubes and the emergence of nanotechnology in recent years has therefore opened up new avenues of matenials development for the low-temperature fuel cells, particularly the hydrogen PEMFC and the direct methanol PEMFC. Carbon nanotubes and aerogels are also being investigated for use as catalyst support, and this could lead to the production of more stable, high activity catalysts, with low platinum loadings (< 0.1 Mg cm(-2)) and therefore low cost. Carbon can also be used as a fuel in high-temperature fuel cells based on solid oxide, alkaline or molten carbonate technology. In the direct carbon fuel cell (DCFC), the energy of combustion of carbon is converted to electrical power with a thermodynamic efficiency close to 100%. The DCFC could therefore help to extend the use of fossil fuels for power generation as society moves towards a more sustainable energy future. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic cost benefit analysis of generation investment in a deregulated electricity market

A new methodology is proposed for the analysis of generation capacity investment in a deregulated market environment. This methodology proposes to make the investment appraisal using a probabilistic framework. The probabilistic production simulation (PPC) algorithm is used to compute the expected energy generated, taking into account system load variations and plant forced outage rates, while the Monte Carlo approach has been applied to model the electricity price variability seen in a realistic network. The model is able to capture the price and hence the profitability uncertainties for generator companies. Seasonal variation in the electricity prices and the system demand are independently modeled. The method is validated on IEEE RTS system, augmented with realistic market and plant data, by using it to compare the financial viability of several generator investments applying either conventional or directly connected generator (powerformer) technologies. The significance of the results is assessed using several financial risk measures.

Microbial Fuel Cells: Methodology and Technology

Microbial fuel cell (MFC) research is a rapidly evolving field that lacks established terminology and methods for the analysis of system performance. This makes it difficult for researchers to compare devices on an equivalent basis. The construction and analysis of MFCs requires knowledge of different scientific and engineering fields, ranging from microbiology and electrochemistry to materials and environmental engineering. DescribingMFCsystems therefore involves an understanding of these different scientific and engineering principles. In this paper, we provide a review of the different materials and methods used to construct MFCs, techniques used to analyze system performance, and recommendations on what information to include in MFC studies and the most useful ways to present results.

Overcoming the problem of loss-in-capacity of calcium oxide in CO2 capture

Calcium oxide has been identified to be one of the best candidates for CO2 capture in zero-emission power-generation systems. However, it suffers a well-known problem of loss-in-capacity (i.e., its capacity of CO2 capture decreases after it undergoes cycles of carbonation/decarbonation). This problem is a potential obstacle to the adoption of the new technologies. This paper proposes a method of fabricating a CaO-based adsorbent without the problem of loss-in-capacity. An adsorbent was fabricated using the method and tested on a thermogravimetric analyzer. It was shown that the sorbent attained a utilization efficiency of more than 90% after 9 cycles of carbonation/decarbonation.

Hydrogen from coal: Production and utilisation technologies

Error condition detected Although coal may be viewed as a dirty fuel due to its high greenhouse emissions when combusted, a strong case can be made for coal to be a major world source of clean H-2 energy. Apart from the fact that resources of coal will outlast oil and natural gas by centuries, there is a shift towards developing environmentally benign coal technologies, which can lead to high energy conversion efficiencies and low air pollution emissions as compared to conventional coal fired power generation plant. There are currently several world research and industrial development projects in the areas of Integrated Gasification Combined Cycles (IGCC) and Integrated Gasification Fuel Cell (IGFC) systems. In such systems, there is a need to integrate complex unit operations including gasifiers, gas separation and cleaning units, water gas shift reactors, turbines, heat exchangers, steam generators and fuel cells. IGFC systems tested in the USA, Europe and Japan employing gasifiers (Texaco, Lurgi and Eagle) and fuel cells have resulted in energy conversions at efficiency of 47.5% (HHV) which is much higher than the 30-35% efficiency of conventional coal fired power generation. Solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) and molten carbonate fuel cells (MCFC) are the front runners in energy production from coal gases. These fuel cells can operate at high temperatures and are robust to gas poisoning impurities. IGCC and IGFC technologies are expensive and currently economically uncompetitive as compared to established and mature power generation technology. However, further efficiency and technology improvements coupled with world pressures on limitation of greenhouse gases and other gaseous pollutants could make IGCC/IGFC technically and economically viable for hydrogen production and utilisation in clean and environmentally benign energy systems. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Urinary arsenic, porphyrins and malondialdehyde in a population 16 years after arsenic mitigation program in Xinjian, China

Arsenic contamination of groundwater (0.05 to 0.84 mg/L) in Kuitun, Xinjiang was first found in 1970’s. Alternative clean surface water was introduced in 1985. We aimed to assess the exposure and heath outcome since the mitigation. In 2000, we collected a total of 360 urine samples from villagers from the endemic area and a nearby control area for arsenic (As), porphyrins and malondialdehyde (MDA) measurements. The averaged urinary As level of villagers from the endemic site (117±8.3 μg/g creatinine; 4.2 to 943.8 μg/g creat) was higher than that of the control site (73.6±3.2 μg/g creat). No significant differences were found in urinary porphyrins or MDA between the endemic and control sites. However, when the urinary arsenic was higher than 150 μg/g creat, these two biomarkers were higher in the exposed group than the control. Within the exposed group, villagers with arsenic-related skin symptoms had higher arsenic, uroporphyrin and MDA compared to those who had not shown symptoms. Sine the water mitigation, villagers whose urinary arsenic levels were 270 μg/g creat dropped from 20% to 10% of the population. Population with arsenic-related skin symptoms remained unchanged at 31%. We noted that 7.8% of those who had skin lesions were born after the implementation of intervention and that some villagers still prefer to drink the groundwater. Further, in the dry season, lack of surface water and electrical power breakdowns are to blame for failure to ensure continuous supply of clean water. It is concluded that despite the prompt action and successful water mitigation program to curb arsenic poisonings, it is essential to continue to monitor the health outcome of this population.