Slowing down a pine invasion despite uncertainty in demography and dispersal

1. Management decisions regarding invasive plants often have to be made quickly and in the face of fragmentary knowledge of their population dynamics. However, recommendations are commonly made on the basis of only a restricted set of parameters. Without addressing uncertainty and variability in model parameters we risk ineffective management, resulting in wasted resources and an escalating problem if early chances to control spread are missed. 2. Using available data for Pinus nigra in ungrazed and grazed grassland and shrubland in New Zealand, we parameterized a stage-structured spread model to calculate invasion wave speed, population growth rate and their sensitivities and elasticities to population parameters. Uncertainty distributions of parameters were used with the model to generate confidence intervals (CI) about the model predictions. 3. Ungrazed grassland environments were most vulnerable to invasion and the highest elasticities and sensitivities of invasion speed were to long-distance dispersal parameters. However, there was overlap between the elasticity and sensitivity CI on juvenile survival, seedling establishment and long-distance dispersal parameters, indicating overlap in their effects on invasion speed. 4. While elasticity of invasion speed to long-distance dispersal was highest in shrubland environments, there was overlap with the CI of elasticity to juvenile survival. In shrubland invasion speed was most sensitive to the probability of establishment, especially when establishment was low. In the grazed environment elasticity and sensitivity of invasion speed to the severity of grazing were consistently highest. Management recommendations based on elasticities and sensitivities depend on the vulnerability of the habitat. 5. Synthesis and applications. Despite considerable uncertainty in demography and dispersal, robust management recommendations emerged from the model. Proportional or absolute reductions in long-distance dispersal, juvenile survival and seedling establishment parameters have the potential to reduce wave speed substantially. Plantations of wind-dispersed invasive conifers should not be sited on exposed sites vulnerable to long-distance dispersal events, and trees in these sites should be removed. Invasion speed can also be reduced by removing seedlings, establishing competitive shrubs and grazing. Incorporating uncertainty into the modelling process increases our confidence in the wide applicability of the management strategies recommended here.

Modelling life history strategies with capture-recapture data: Evolutionary demography of the water skink Eulamprus tympanum

Matrix population models, elasticity analysis and loop analysis can potentially provide powerful techniques for the analysis of life histories. Data from a capture-recapture study on a population of southern highland water skinks (Eulamprus tympanum) were used to construct a matrix population model. Errors in elasticities were calculated by using the parametric bootstrap technique. Elasticity and loop analyses were then conducted to identify the life history stages most important to fitness. The same techniques were used to investigate the relative importance of fast versus slow growth, and rapid versus delayed reproduction. Mature water skinks were long-lived, but there was high immature mortality. The most sensitive life history stage was the subadult stage. It is suggested that life history evolution in E. tympanum may be strongly affected by predation, particularly by birds. Because our population declined over the study, slow growth and delayed reproduction were the optimal life history strategies over this period. Although the techniques of evolutionary demography provide a powerful approach for the analysis of life histories, there are formidable logistical obstacles in gathering enough high-quality data for robust estimates of the critical parameters.

Elasticity, yielding and episodicity in simple models of mantle convection

We explore the implications of refinements in the mechanical description of planetary constituents on the convection modes predicted by finite-element simulations. The refinements consist in the inclusion of incremental elasticity, plasticity (yielding) and multiple simultaneous creep mechanisms in addition to the usual visco-plastic models employed in the context of unified plate-mantle models. The main emphasis of this paper rests on the constitutive and computational formulation of the model. We apply a consistent incremental formulation of the non-linear governing equations avoiding the computationally expensive iterations that are otherwise necessary to handle the onset of plastic yield. In connection with episodic convection simulations, we point out the strong dependency of the results on the choice of the initial temperature distribution. Our results also indicate that the inclusion of elasticity in the constitutive relationships lowers the mechanical energy associated with subduction events.

Leaf water relations of Eucalyptus cloeziana and Eucalyptus argophloia in response to water deficit

Leaf water relations responses to limited water supply were determined in 7-month-old plants of a dry inland provenance of Eucalyptus argophloia Blakely and in a humid coastal provenance (Gympie) and a dry inland provenance (Hungry Hills) of Eucalyptus cloeziana F. Muell. Each provenance of E. cloeziana exhibited a lower relative water content at the turgor loss point, a lower apoplastic water content, a smaller ratio of dry mass to turgid mass and a lower bulk modulus of elasticity than the single provenance of E. argophloia. Osmotic potential at full turgor and water potential at the turgor loss point were significantly lower in E. argophloia and the inland provenance of E. cloeziana than in the coastal provenance of E. cloeziana. There was limited osmotic adjustment in response to soil drying in E. cloeziana, but not in E. argophloia. Between-species differences in water relations parameters were larger than those between the E. cloeziana provenances. Both E. cloeziana provenances maintained turgor under moderate water stress through a combination of osmotic and elastic adjustments. Eucalyptus argophloia had more rigid cell walls and reached lower water potentials with less reduction in relative water content than either of the E. cloeziana provenances, thereby enabling it to extract water from dryer soils.

Structural and mechanical properties of nanostructured granular alumina catalysts

Granular gamma-Al2O3 support and 8 wt % CuO/gamma-Al2O3 catalyst were synthesized by a sol-gel granulation method. The pore structure, crush strength, hardness, and elasticity of these sol-gel-derived catalysts were studied and compared with similar commercial catalysts prepared by non-sol-gel methods. Alumina and CuO-coated alumina granular particles prepared by different methods have different macro- and microstructure. The sol-gel-derived granular gamma-alumina and CuO-coated gamma-alumina granular particles have a structure defined by compact packing of uniform, nanosized gamma-alumina crystallites. They are characterized by a more uniform pore size distribution and larger surface area as compared to similar commercial samples with a structure defined by packing of aggregates consisting of nonuniform gamma-alumina crystallites. Because of the differences in the macro- and microstructure, the sol-gel-derived granular samples offer higher crush strength and greater hardness than the commercial samples.

The price elasticity of the Euro to movements in foreign reserves through European Central Bank intevention

The Euro has been used as the largest weighting element in a basket of currencies for forex arrangements adopted by several Central European countries outside the European Union (EU). The paper uses a new time-series approach to examine the relationship between the Euro exchange rate and the level of foreign reserves. It employs Zero-no-zero (ZNZ) patterned vector error-correction (VECM) modelling to investigate Granger causal relations among foreign reserves, the European Monetary Union money supply and the Euro exchange rate. The findings confirm that foreign reserves may influence movements in the Euro's exchange rate. Further, ZNZ patterned VECM modelling with exogenous variables is used to estimate the amount of foreign reserves currently required in order to again achieve a targetted Euro exchange rate

Energy consumption, economic growth and prices: A reassessment using panel VECM for developed and developing countries

This paper reinvestigates the energy consumption-GDP growth nexus in a panel error correction model using data on 20 net energy importers and exporters from 1971 to 2002. Among the energy exporters, there was bidirectional causality between economic growth and energy consumption in the developed countries in both the short and long run, while in the developing countries energy consumption stimulates growth only in the short run. The former result is also found for energy importers and the latter result exists only for the developed countries within this category. In addition, compared to the developing countries, the developed countries' elasticity response in terms of economic growth from an increase in energy consumption is larger although its income elasticity is lower and less than unitary. Lastly. the implications for energy policy calling for a more holistic approach are discussed. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.