An agent-based approach to modelling driver route choice behaviour under the influence of real-time information

This paper presents an agent-based approach to modelling individual driver behaviour under the influence of real-time traffic information. The driver behaviour models developed in this study are based on a behavioural survey of drivers which was conducted on a congested commuting corridor in Brisbane, Australia. Commuters' responses to travel information were analysed and a number of discrete choice models were developed to determine the factors influencing drivers' behaviour and their propensity to change route and adjust travel patterns. Based on the results obtained from the behavioural survey, the agent behaviour parameters which define driver characteristics, knowledge and preferences were identified and their values determined. A case study implementing a simple agent-based route choice decision model within a microscopic traffic simulation tool is also presented. Driver-vehicle units (DVUs) were modelled as autonomous software components that can each be assigned a set of goals to achieve and a database of knowledge comprising certain beliefs, intentions and preferences concerning the driving task. Each DVU provided route choice decision-making capabilities, based on perception of its environment, that were similar to the described intentions of the driver it represented. The case study clearly demonstrated the feasibility of the approach and the potential to develop more complex driver behavioural dynamics based on the belief-desire-intention agent architecture. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A mixture model-based approach to the clustering of microarray expression data

Motivation: This paper introduces the software EMMIX-GENE that has been developed for the specific purpose of a model-based approach to the clustering of microarray expression data, in particular, of tissue samples on a very large number of genes. The latter is a nonstandard problem in parametric cluster analysis because the dimension of the feature space (the number of genes) is typically much greater than the number of tissues. A feasible approach is provided by first selecting a subset of the genes relevant for the clustering of the tissue samples by fitting mixtures of t distributions to rank the genes in order of increasing size of the likelihood ratio statistic for the test of one versus two components in the mixture model. The imposition of a threshold on the likelihood ratio statistic used in conjunction with a threshold on the size of a cluster allows the selection of a relevant set of genes. However, even this reduced set of genes will usually be too large for a normal mixture model to be fitted directly to the tissues, and so the use of mixtures of factor analyzers is exploited to reduce effectively the dimension of the feature space of genes. Results: The usefulness of the EMMIX-GENE approach for the clustering of tissue samples is demonstrated on two well-known data sets on colon and leukaemia tissues. For both data sets, relevant subsets of the genes are able to be selected that reveal interesting clusterings of the tissues that are either consistent with the external classification of the tissues or with background and biological knowledge of these sets.

Listening to the 'voices' of students with severe learning difficulties through a task-based approach to research and learning in physical education

In this article, Hayley Fitzgerald, Anne Jobling and David Kirk consider the physical education and sporting experiences of a group of students with severe learning difficulties. Their study is thought provoking, not only because of the important and somewhat neglected subject matter, but equally for the research approach adopted. The way in which the study engaged with the students and the insights gained from that engagement will be of particular interest to practitioner researchers.

A Z based approach to verifying security protocols

Security protocols preserve essential properties, such as confidentiality and authentication, of electronically transmitted data. However, such properties cannot be directly expressed or verified in contemporary formal methods. Via a detailed example, we describe the phases needed to formalise and verify the correctness of a security protocol in the state-oriented Z formalism.

A border-based approach for hiding sensitive frequent itemsets

Sharing data among organizations often leads to mutual benefit. Recent technology in data mining has enabled efficient extraction of knowledge from large databases. This, however, increases risks of disclosing the sensitive knowledge when the database is released to other parties. To address this privacy issue, one may sanitize the original database so that the sensitive knowledge is hidden. The challenge is to minimize the side effect on the quality of the sanitized database so that nonsensitive knowledge can still be mined. In this paper, we study such a problem in the context of hiding sensitive frequent itemsets by judiciously modifying the transactions in the database. To preserve the non-sensitive frequent itemsets, we propose a border-based approach to efficiently evaluate the impact of any modification to the database during the hiding process. The quality of database can be well maintained by greedily selecting the modifications with minimal side effect. Experiments results are also reported to show the effectiveness of the proposed approach. © 2005 IEEE

Applying a disciplined approach to the development of a context-aware communication application

Pervasive computing applications must be engineered to provide unprecedented levels of flexibility in order to reconfigure and adapt in response to changes in computing resources and user requirements. To meet these challenges, appropriate software engineering abstractions and infrastructure are required as a platform on which to build adaptive applications. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of a disciplined, model-based approach to engineer a context-aware Session Initiation Protocol (SIP) based communication application. This disciplined approach builds on our previously developed conceptual models and infrastructural components, which enable the description, acquisition, management and exploitation of arbitrary types of context and user preference information to enable adaptation to context changes

Chaos Theory as an Approach to Understanding MICE in Time of Crisis

MICE (meetings, incentives, conventions, and exhibitions), has generated high foreign exchange revenue for the economy worldwide. In Thailand, MICE tourists are recognized as ‘quality’ visitors, mainly because of their high-spending potential. Having said that, Thailand’s MICE sector has been influenced by a number of crises following September 11, 2001. Consequently, professionals in the MICE sector must be prepared to deal with such complex phenomena of crisis that might happen in the future. While a number of researches have examined the complexity of crises in the tourism context, there has been little focus on such issues in the MICE sector. As chaos theory provides a particularly good model for crisis situations, it is the aim of this paper to propose a chaos theory-based approach to the understanding of complex and chaotic system of the MICE sector in time of crisis.

An EM-based Semi-Parametric Mixture Model Approach to the Regression Analysis of Competing-Risks Data

We consider a mixture model approach to the regression analysis of competing-risks data. Attention is focused on inference concerning the effects of factors on both the probability of occurrence and the hazard rate conditional on each of the failure types. These two quantities are specified in the mixture model using the logistic model and the proportional hazards model, respectively. We propose a semi-parametric mixture method to estimate the logistic and regression coefficients jointly, whereby the component-baseline hazard functions are completely unspecified. Estimation is based on maximum likelihood on the basis of the full likelihood, implemented via an expectation-conditional maximization (ECM) algorithm. Simulation studies are performed to compare the performance of the proposed semi-parametric method with a fully parametric mixture approach. The results show that when the component-baseline hazard is monotonic increasing, the semi-parametric and fully parametric mixture approaches are comparable for mildly and moderately censored samples. When the component-baseline hazard is not monotonic increasing, the semi-parametric method consistently provides less biased estimates than a fully parametric approach and is comparable in efficiency in the estimation of the parameters for all levels of censoring. The methods are illustrated using a real data set of prostate cancer patients treated with different dosages of the drug diethylstilbestrol. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Modelling the population dynamics of the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni: a cohort-based approach incorporating the effects of weather

Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni (QFF) is arguably the most costly horticultural insect pest in Australia. Despite this, no model is available to describe its population dynamics and aid in its management. This paper describes a cohort-based model of the population dynamics of the Queensland fruit fly. The model is primarily driven by weather variables, and so can be used at any location where appropriate meteorological data are available. In the model, the life cycle is divided into a number of discreet stages to allow physiological processes to be defined as accurately as possible. Eggs develop and hatch into larvae, which develop into pupae, which emerge as either teneral females or males. Both females and males can enter reproductive and over-wintering life stages, and there is a trapped male life stage to allow model predictions to be compared with trap catch data. All development rates are temperature-dependent. Daily mortality rates are temperature-dependent, but may also be influenced by moisture, density of larvae in fruit, fruit suitability, and age. Eggs, larvae and pupae all have constant establishment mortalities, causing a defined proportion of individuals to die upon entering that life stage. Transfer from one immature stage to the next is based on physiological age. In the adult life stages, transfer between stages may require additional and/or alternative functions. Maximum fecundity is 1400 eggs per female per day, and maximum daily oviposition rate is 80 eggs/female per day. The actual number of eggs laid by a female on any given day is restricted by temperature, density of larva in fruit, suitability of fruit for oviposition, and female activity. Activity of reproductive females and males, which affects reproduction and trapping, decreases with rainfall. Trapping of reproductive males is determined by activity, temperature and the proportion of males in the active population. Limitations of the model are discussed. Despite these, the model provides a useful agreement with trap catch data, and allows key areas for future research to be identified. These critical gaps in the current state of knowledge exist despite over 50 years of research on this key pest. By explicitly attempting to model the population dynamics of this pest we have clearly identified the research areas that must be addressed before progress can be made in developing the model into an operational tool for the management of Queensland fruit fly. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Long-term outcome of a school-based, universal approach to prevention of depression in adolescents

In this study. the authors examined the 2-, 3-, and 4-year outcomes of a school-based, universal approach to the prevention of adolescent depression. Despite initial short-term positive effects, these benefits were not maintained over time. Adolescents who completed the teacher-administered cognitive-behavioral intervention did not differ significantly from adolescents in the monitoring-control condition in terms of changes in depressive symptoms, problem solving, attributional style, or other indicators of psychopathology from preintervention to 4-year follow-up. Results were equivalent irrespective of initial level of depressive symptoms.