Modelling pre-clearing vegetation distribution using GIS-integrated statistical, ecological and data models: A case study from the wet tropics of Northeastern Australia

Traditional vegetation mapping methods use high cost, labour-intensive aerial photography interpretation. This approach can be subjective and is limited by factors such as the extent of remnant vegetation, and the differing scale and quality of aerial photography over time. An alternative approach is proposed which integrates a data model, a statistical model and an ecological model using sophisticated Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques and rule-based systems to support fine-scale vegetation community modelling. This approach is based on a more realistic representation of vegetation patterns with transitional gradients from one vegetation community to another. Arbitrary, though often unrealistic, sharp boundaries can be imposed on the model by the application of statistical methods. This GIS-integrated multivariate approach is applied to the problem of vegetation mapping in the complex vegetation communities of the Innisfail Lowlands in the Wet Tropics bioregion of Northeastern Australia. The paper presents the full cycle of this vegetation modelling approach including sampling sites, variable selection, model selection, model implementation, internal model assessment, model prediction assessments, models integration of discrete vegetation community models to generate a composite pre-clearing vegetation map, independent data set model validation and model prediction's scale assessments. An accurate pre-clearing vegetation map of the Innisfail Lowlands was generated (0.83r(2)) through GIS integration of 28 separate statistical models. This modelling approach has good potential for wider application, including provision of. vital information for conservation planning and management; a scientific basis for rehabilitation of disturbed and cleared areas; a viable method for the production of adequate vegetation maps for conservation and forestry planning of poorly-studied areas. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Distribution of the monarch butterfly, Danaus plexippus (L.) (Lepidoptera : Nymphalidae), in western North America

The standard model for the migration of the monarch butterfly in western North America has hitherto been movement in the autumn to overwintering sites in coastal California, followed by a return inland by most individuals in the spring. This model is based largely on observational and limited tagging and recovery data. In this paper we test the model by plotting many years of museum and collection records on a monthly basis on a map of the region. Our plots suggest a movement of Oregon, Washington and other north-western populations of summer butterflies to California in the autumn, but movement of more north-easterly populations (e.g. from Idaho and Montana) along two pathways through Nevada, Utah and Arizona to Mexico. The more westerly of these two pathways may follow the Colorado River south as indicated by museum records and seasonal temperature data. The eastern pathway may enter northern Utah along the western scarp of the Wasatch Mountains and run south through Utah and Arizona. Further analysis of distributions suggests that monarch butterflies in the American West occur primarily along rivers, and there are observations indicating that autumn migrants often follow riparian corridors. More data are needed to test our new model; we suggest the nature of the data required. (c) 2005 The Linnean Society of London.