Coral reefs in a century of rapid environmental change

Coral reefs are the most diverse marine ecosystem and embrace possibly millions of plant, animal and protist species. Mutualistic symbioses are a fundamental feature of coral reefs that have been used to explain their structure, biodiversity and existence. Complex inter-relationships between hosts, habitats and symbionts belie closely coupled nutrient and community dynamics that create the circumstances for something from nothing (or the oasis in a nutrient desert). The flip side of these dynamics is a close dependency between species, which results in a series of non-linear relationships as conditions change. These responses are being highlighted as anthropogenic influences increase across the world's tropical and subtropical coastlines. Caribbean as well as Indo-Pacific coral populations are now in a serious decline in many parts of the world. This has resulted in a significant reorganization of how coral reef ecosystems function. Among the spectra of changes brought about by humans is rapid climate change. Mass coral bleaching - the loss of the dinoflagellate symbionts from reef-building corals - and mortality has affected the world's coral reefs with increasing frequency and intensity since the late 1970s. Mass bleaching events, which often cover thousands of square kilometres of coral reefs, are triggered by small increases (+1-3degreesC) in water temperature. These increases in sea temperature are often seen during warm phase weather conditions (e.g. ENSO) and are increasing in size and magnitude. The loss of living coral cover (e.g. 16% globally in 1998, an exceptionally warm year) is resulting in an as yet unspecified reduction in the abundance of a myriad of other species. Projections from general circulation models (GCM) used to project changes in global temperature indicate that conditions even under the mildest greenhouse gas emission scenarios may exceed the thermal tolerances of most reef-building coral communities. Research must now explore key issues such as the extent to which the thermal tolerances of corals and their symbionts are dynamic if bleaching and disease are linked; how the loss of high densities of reef-building coral will affect other dependent species; and, how the loss of coral populations will affect the millions of people globally who depend on coral reefs for their daily survival.

Three putative types of El Nino revealed by spatial variability in impact on Australian wheat yield

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon significantly impacts rainfall and ensuing crop yields in many parts of the world. In Australia, El Nino events are often associated with severe drought conditions. However, El Nino events differ spatially and temporally in their manifestations and impacts, reducing the relevance of ENSO-based seasonal forecasts. In this analysis, three putative types of El Nino are identified among the 24 occurrences since the beginning of the twentieth century. The three types are based on coherent spatial patterns (footprints) found in the El Nino impact on Australian wheat yield. This bioindicator reveals aligned spatial patterns in rainfall anomalies, indicating linkage to atmospheric drivers. Analysis of the associated ocean-atmosphere dynamics identifies three types of El Nino differing in the timing of onset and location of major ocean temperature and atmospheric pressure anomalies. Potential causal mechanisms associated with these differences in anomaly patterns need to be investigated further using the increasing capabilities of general circulation models. Any improved predictability would be extremely valuable in forecasting effects of individual El Nino events on agricultural systems.

Rainfall variability at decadal and longer time scales: signal or noise?

Rainfall variability occurs over a wide range of temporal scales. Knowledge and understanding of such variability can lead to improved risk management practices in agricultural and other industries. Analyses of temporal patterns in 100 yr of observed monthly global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure data show that the single most important cause of explainable, terrestrial rainfall variability resides within the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) frequency domain (2.5-8.0 yr), followed by a slightly weaker but highly significant decadal signal (9-13 yr), with some evidence of lesser but significant rainfall variability at interclecadal time scales (15-18 yr). Most of the rainfall variability significantly linked to frequencies tower than ENSO occurs in the Australasian region, with smaller effects in North and South America, central and southern Africa, and western Europe. While low-frequency (LF) signals at a decadal frequency are dominant, the variability evident was ENSO-like in all the frequency domains considered. The extent to which such LF variability is (i) predictable and (ii) either part of the overall ENSO variability or caused by independent processes remains an as yet unanswered question. Further progress can only be made through mechanistic studies using a variety of models.

delta O-18, Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca records of Porites lutea corals from Leizhou Peninsula, northern South China Sea, and their applicability as paleoclimatic indicators

Combined seasonal to monthly resolution coral skeletal delta(18)O, Sr/Ca, and Mg/Ca records are reported for one modem and two late Holocene Porites lutea corals from a fringing reef at Leizhou Peninsula, the northern coast of the South China Sea (SCS). All the profiles for the period 1989-2000 reveal annual cycles well correlated with instrumental sea surface temperatures (SST), and display broad peaks in summer and narrow troughs in winter, reflecting seasonal growth rate variations. Calibration against instrumental SST yields the following equations: delta(18)O=-0.174(+/- 0.010)xSST(degrees C)-1.02(+/- 0.27) (MSWD=5.8), Sr/Ca-(mmol/mol)=-0.0424(+/- 0.0031)xSST(degrees C)+9.836(+/- 0.082) (MSWD=8.6), and Mg/Ca-(mmol/mol)=0.110(+/- 0.009)XSST(degrees C)+ 1.32(+/- 0.23) (MSWD=55). The scatter in the Mg/Ca-SST relationship is much larger than analytical uncertainties can account for, suggesting the presence of SST-unrelated components in the Mg/Ca variation. Calculated Sr/Ca-SST values for two later Holocene Porites lutea samples (U-series ages similar to 541 BC and similar to 487 AD, respectively) from the same reef suggest that SST in the SCS at similar to 541 BC was nearly as warm as in the 1990s (the warmest decade of the last century), but at similar to 487 AD, it was significantly cooler. This observation is consistent with climatic data reported in Chinese historic documents, confirming that the Sr/Ca-SST relationship is a reliable thermometer. Removing the SST component in the delta(18)O variation based on calculated Sr/Ca-SST values, the residual delta(18)O reflects the deviation of the Holocene seawater delta(18)O from the modem value, which is also a measure of the Holocene sea surface salinity (SSS) or the summer monsoon moisture level in mainland China. Such residual delta(18)O was close to zero at similar to 541 BC and -0.3 parts per thousand at similar to 487 AD, suggesting that it was as wet as in the 1990s at similar to 541 BC but significantly drier at similar to 487 AD in mainland China, which are also consistent with independent historic records. Calculated Mg/Ca-SST values for the two late Holocene corals are significantly lower than the Sr/Ca-SST values and are also in conflict with Chinese historic records, suggesting that coral Mg/Ca is not reliable proxy for SST. At comparable Sr/Ca ranges, fossil corals always display negative Mg/Ca offsets if compared with the modem coral of the same site. We interpret this observation as due to preferential loss of Mg during meteoric dissolution of cryptic Mg-calcite-bearing microbialites in the exposed fossil corals. Microbialites (MgO up to 17%, Sr only 100-300 ppm) are ubiquitous during reef-building processes and their presence in only a trace amount will have a significant impact on coral Mg/Ca ratios without detectable influence on coral Sr/Ca ratios. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Explaining point variability in the eastern Victoria river region, northern territory

This paper constructs a reduction sequence model for north Australian points from the eastern Victoria River region, and identifies a single continuum linking unifacial and bifacial point forms, with some divergence from this single reduction trajectory dependent upon artefact size. Chronological changes in reduction intensity between 5,000BP and the present are found to coincide with typological variation in points as well as changing emphasis on the extendibility of point reduction. It is suggested that changes in the extendibility of point reduction can be linked to intensified ENSO-driven climatic variability in the late Holocene that likely increased economic risk and warranted a substantial technological response, including the use of retouched toolkits with potential for longer use-lives.

Holocene depositional history of the Burdekin River delta of northeastern Australia: A model for a low-accommodation, highstand delta

The Burdekin River of northeastern Australia has constructed a substantial delta during the Holocene (delta plain area 1260 km2). The vertical succession through this delta comprises (1) a basal, coarse-grained transgressive lag overlying a continental omission surface, overlain by (2) a mud interval deposited as the coastal region was inundated by the postglacially rising sea, in turn overlain by (3) a generally sharp-based sand unit deposited principally in channel and mouth-bar environments with lesser volumes of floodplain and coastal facies. The Holocene Burdekin Delta was constructed as a series of at least thirteen discrete delta lobes, formed as the river avulsed. Each lobe consists of a composite sand body typically 5-8 m thick. The oldest lobes, formed during the latter stages of the postglacial sea-level rise (10-5.5 kyr BP), are larger than those formed during the highstand (5.5-3 kyr BP), which are in turn larger than those formed during the most recent slight sea-level lowering and stillstand (3-0 kyr BP). Radiocarbon ages and other stratigraphic data indicate that inter-avulsion period has decreased through time coincident with the decrease in delta lobe area. The primary control on Holocene delta architecture appears to have been a change from a pluvial climate known to characterize the region 12-4 kyr BP to the present drier, ENSO-dominated climate. In addition to decreasing the sediment supply via lower rates of chemical weathering, this change may have contributed to the shorter avulsion period by facilitating extreme variability of discharge. More frequent avulsion may also have been facilitated by the lengthening of the delta-plain channels as the system prograded seaward. Copyright © 2006, SEPM (Society for Sedimentary Geology).

Geochemical changes recorded in Lynch's Crater, Northeastern Australia, over the past 50 ka

There are many geochemical reconstructions of environmental change in the mid and high latitudes but relatively few in the tropical latitudes, despite their considerable potential for reconstructing environmental processes that cannot be identified using more traditional proxies. Here we present one reconstruction of environmental change for the tropics. This reconstruction covers the past 50 ka using a suite of geochemical data from the high-resolution sequence of Lynch's Crater in northeast Queensland, Australia, a region highly sensitive to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity. The 23 major oxides and trace elements measured Could be summarised by extracting three axes using principal components analysis (accounting for 72% of the variability). The data indicate that the greatest variability in the geochemical data accounted for erosional activity within the catchment that was associated with past changes in the frequency of ENSO activity (though this was less sensitive during wetter periods, probably as a result of buffering by high vegetation cover). The remaining variability was largely explained by elements that form complexes with organic compounds (e.g., humic acids) and those that are important nutrients for specific vegetation types (and therefore a measure of vegetation distribution). For more detailed reconstructions, further work is required to disentangle the complex controls of clements within sedimentary sequences. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

AUSLEM (AUStralian Land Erodibility Model): A tool for identifying wind erosion hazard in Australia

We present AUSLEM (AUStralian Land Erodibility Model), a land erodibility modelling system that utilizes a rule-set of surficial and climatic thresholds applied through a Geographic Information System (GIs) modelling framework to predict landscape susceptibility to wind erosion. AUSLEM is distinctive in that it quantitatively assesses landscape susceptibility to wind erosion at a 5 x 5 km. spatial resolution on a monthly time-step across Australia. The system was implemented for representative wet (1984), dry (1994), and average rainfall (1997) years with corresponding low, high and moderate dust storm day frequencies. Results demonstrate that AUSLEM can identify landscape erodibility, and provide an interpretation of the physical nature and distribution of erodible landscapes in Australia. Further, results offer an assessment of the dynamic tendencies of erodibility in space and time in response to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and seasonal synoptic scale climate variability. A comparative analysis of AUSLEM output with independent national and international wind erosion, atmospheric aerosol and dust event records indicates a high level of model competency. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.