Extinction times for a general birth, death and catastrophe process

The birth, death and catastrophe process is an extension of the birth-death process that incorporates the possibility of reductions in population of arbitrary size. We will consider a general form of this model in which the transition rates are allowed to depend on the current population size in an arbitrary manner. The linear case, where the transition rates are proportional to current population size, has been studied extensively. In particular, extinction probabilities, the expected time to extinction, and the distribution of the population size conditional on nonextinction (the quasi-stationary distribution) have all been evaluated explicitly. However, whilst these characteristics are of interest in the modelling and management of populations, processes with linear rate coefficients represent only a very limited class of models. We address this limitation by allowing for a wider range of catastrophic events. Despite this generalisation, explicit expressions can still be found for the expected extinction times.

The Migration of Doctors and Nurses from South Pacific Island Nations

Little is known of the structure of the international migration of skilled health professionals. Accelerated migration of doctors and nurses from the Pacific island states of Fiji, Samoa and Tonga to the Pacific periphery is part of the globalization of health care. The findings from a recent survey of 251 doctors and nurses from the three island countries are reported here. Key determinants of both present migration status and future migration intentions were analyzed using econometric methods. Nurses' and doctors' propensities to migrate are influenced by both income and non-income factors, including ownership of businesses and houses. Migrants also tend to have more close relatives overseas, to have trained there, and so experienced superior working conditions. Migration propensities vary between countries, and between nurses and doctors within countries. Tongan nurses have a higher propensity to migrate, mainly because of greater relative earnings differentials, but are also more likely to return home. The role of kinship ties, relative income differentials and working conditions is evident in other developing country contexts. Remittances and return migration, alongside business investment, bring some benefits to compensate for the skill drain. National development policies should focus on encouraging return migration, alongside retention and recruitment, but are unlikely to prevent out migration. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On a railroad to nowhere: Irmgard Keun's 'D-Zug Dritter Klasse'

D-Zug dritter Klasse, the second novel Irmgard Keun published in exile from Nazi Germany, describes seven passengers on a Berlin-Paris express in 1937. Although it begins like a wide-ranging narrative of persecution and emigration, many of the passengers' stories develop in non-political, inconsequential, and downright farcical directions, a shift which scholars have struggled to explain. This article suggests that D-Zug is a novel of emigration in a personal and literary sense, interpreting the narrative's erratic trajectory as a conscious expression of Keun's fear that her continuing exile could stifle her political effectiveness and professional abilities as an antifascist author.

Evaluating trends in abundance of immature green turtles, Chelonia mydas, in the Greater Caribbean

Many long-lived marine species exhibit life history traits. that make them more vulnerable to overexploitation. Accurate population trend analysis is essential for development and assessment of management plans for these species. However, because many of these species disperse over large geographic areas, have life stages inaccessible to human surveyors, and/or undergo complex developmental migrations, data on trends in abundance are often available for only one stage of the population, usually breeding adults. The green turtle (Chelonia mydas) is one of these long-lived species for which population trends are based almost exclusively on either numbers of females that emerge to nest or numbers of nests deposited each year on geographically restricted beaches. In this study, we generated estimates of annual abundance for juvenile green turtles at two foraging grounds in the Bahamas based on long-term capture-mark-recapture (CMR) studies at Union Creek (24 years) and Conception Creek (13 years), using a two-stage approach. First, we estimated recapture probabilities from CMR data using the Cormack-Jolly-Seber models in the software program MARK; second, we estimated annual abundance of green turtles. at both study sites using the recapture probabilities in a Horvitz-Thompson type estimation procedure. Green turtle abundance did not change significantly in Conception Creek, but, in Union Creek, green turtle abundance had successive phases of significant increase, significant decrease, and stability. These changes in abundance resulted from changes in immigration, not survival or emigration. The trends in abundance on the foraging grounds did not conform to the significantly increasing trend for the major nesting population at Tortuguero, Costa Rica. This disparity highlights the challenges of assessing population-wide trends of green turtles and other long-lived species. The best approach for monitoring population trends may be a combination of (1) extensive surveys to provide data for large-scale trends in relative population abundance, and (2) intensive surveys, using CMR techniques, to estimate absolute abundance and evaluate the demographic processes' driving the trends.

Global flows of foreign talent: Identity anxieties in Singapore's ethnoscape

This paper draws on Appadurai's (1996) concept of ethnoscapes — the global flow of people or what has become increasingly popularized as the global flow of talent. Singapore has initiated a foreign talent policy to compete for a global pool of talent to make up for its shortfall of indigenous work-force. The rationale for recruiting foreign talent is informed by a nationalist competitive ideology to sustain Singapore in the new knowledge-based economy. This paper examines the competing and dissenting discourses surrounding the foreign talent policy. It argues that the mobility of migratory flow has transformative and disruptive effects at the level of culture and the identity landscape of Singapore, where its discursive cultural boundaries are drawn according to a nationalist framework. Drawing on theories and concepts of ‘diaspora’, ‘hybridity’, and ‘third space’, these are the political and cultural issues that this paper attempts to tease out. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]