Implications of seasonal climate forecasts on world wheat trade: a stochastic, dynamic analysis

Improvements in seasonal climate forecasts have potential economic implications for international agriculture. A stochastic, dynamic simulation model of the international wheat economy is developed to estimate the potential effects of seasonal climate forecasts for various countries' wheat production, exports and world trade. Previous studies have generally ignored the stochastic and dynamic aspects of the effects associated with the use of climate forecasts. This study shows the importance of these aspects. In particular with free trade, the use of seasonal forecasts results in increased producer surplus across all exporting countries. In fact, producers appear to capture a large share of the economic surplus created by using the forecasts. Further, the stochastic dimensions suggest that while the expected long-run benefits of seasonal forecasts are positive, considerable year-to-year variation in the distribution of benefits between producers and consumers should be expected. The possibility exists for an economic measure to increase or decrease over a 20-year horizon, depending on the particular sequence of years.

Prediction of slurry transport in SAG mills using SPH fluid flow in a dynamic DEM based porous media

DEM modelling of the motion of coarse fractions of the charge inside SAG mills has now been well established for more than a decade. In these models the effect of slurry has broadly been ignored due to its complexity. Smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) provides a particle based method for modelling complex free surface fluid flows and is well suited to modelling fluid flow in mills. Previous modelling has demonstrated the powerful ability of SPH to capture dynamic fluid flow effects such as lifters crashing into slurry pools, fluid draining from lifters, flow through grates and pulp lifter discharge. However, all these examples were limited by the ability to model only the slurry in the mill without the charge. In this paper, we represent the charge as a dynamic porous media through which the SPH fluid is then able to flow. The porous media properties (specifically the spatial distribution of porosity and velocity) are predicted by time averaging the mill charge predicted using a large scale DEM model. This allows prediction of transient and steady state slurry distributions in the mill and allows its variation with operating parameters, slurry viscosity and slurry volume, to be explored. (C) 2006 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Temporal variation in habitat use by nekton in a subtropical estuarine system

Utilisation by fish of different estuarine habitats is known to vary at many different temporal scales, however no study to date has examined how utilisation varies at all the relevant times scales simultaneously. Here, we compare the utilisation by fish of sandy, intertidal foreshore habitats in a subtropical estuary at four temporal scales: between major spawning periods (spring/ summer and winter), among months within spawning periods, between the full and new moon each month, and between night and day within those lunar phases. Comparisons of assemblage composition, abundance of individuals and of fish in seven different,ecological guilds' were used to identify the temporal scales at which fish varied their use of unvegetated sandy habitats in the lower Noosa Estuary, Queensland, Australia. Fish assemblages were sampled with a seine net at three different regions. The most numerically dominant species caught were southern herring (Herklotsichthys castelnaui: Clupeidae), sand whiting (Sillago ciliata: Sillaginidae), weeping toadfish (Torquigener pleurogramma: Tetraodomidae), and silver biddy (Gerres subfasciatus: Gerreidae). Considerable variation at a range of temporal scales from short term (day versus night) to longer term (spawning periods) was detected for all but one of the variables examined. The clearest patterns were observed for diurnal effects, where generally abundance was greater at night than during the day. There were also strong lunar effects, although there were no consistent patterns between full moon and new moon periods. Significant differences among months within spawning periods were more common than differences between the actual spawning periods. The results clearly indicate that utilisation of sandy, unvegetated estuarine habitats is very dynamic and highly variable in space and time. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.