Characterizing a tropical deforestation wave: a dynamic spatial analysis of a deforestation hotspot in the Colombian Amazon

Tropical deforestation is the major contemporary threat to global biodiversity, because a diminishing extent of tropical forests supports the majority of the Earth's biodiversity. Forest clearing is often spatially concentrated in regions where human land use pressures, either planned or unplanned, increase the likelihood of deforestation. However, it is not a random process, but often moves in waves originating from settled areas. We investigate the spatial dynamics of land cover change in a tropical deforestation hotspot in the Colombian Amazon. We apply a forest cover zoning approach which permitted: calculation of colonization speed; comparative spatial analysis of patterns of deforestation and regeneration; analysis of spatial patterns of mature and recently regenerated forests; and the identification of local-level hotspots experiencing the fastest deforestation or regeneration. The colonization frontline moved at an average of 0.84 km yr(-1) from 1989 to 2002, resulting in the clearing of 3400 ha yr(-1) of forests beyond the 90% forest cover line. The dynamics of forest clearing varied across the colonization front according to the amount of forest in the landscape, but was spatially concentrated in well-defined 'local hotspots' of deforestation and forest regeneration. Behind the deforestation front, the transformed landscape mosaic is composed of cropping and grazing lands interspersed with mature forest fragments and patches of recently regenerated forests. We discuss the implications of the patterns of forest loss and fragmentation for biodiversity conservation within a framework of dynamic conservation planning.

RSA-Grid: A grid computing based framework for power system reliability and security analysis

Grid computing is an emerging technology for providing the high performance computing capability and collaboration mechanism for solving the collaborated and complex problems while using the existing resources. In this paper, a grid computing based framework is proposed for the probabilistic based power system reliability and security analysis. The suggested name of this computing grid is Reliability and Security Grid (RSA-Grid). Then the architecture of this grid is presented. A prototype system has been built for further development of grid-based services for power systems reliability and security assessment based on probabilistic techniques, which require high performance computing and large amount of memory. Preliminary results based on prototype of this grid show that RSA-Grid can provide the comprehensive assessment results for real power systems efficiently and economically.

Dynamic stability of laminated FGM plates based on higher-order shear deformation theory

This paper conducts a dynamic stability analysis of symmetrically laminated FGM rectangular plates with general out-of-plane supporting conditions, subjected to a uniaxial periodic in-plane load and undergoing uniform temperature change. Theoretical formulations are based on Reddy's third-order shear deformation plate theory, and account for the temperature dependence of material properties. A semi-analytical Galerkin-differential quadrature approach is employed to convert the governing equations into a linear system of Mathieu-Hill equations from which the boundary points on the unstable regions are determined by Bolotin's method. Free vibration and bifurcation buckling are also discussed as subset problems. Numerical results are presented in both dimensionless tabular and graphical forms for laminated plates with FGM layers made of silicon nitride and stainless steel. The influences of various parameters such as material composition, layer thickness ratio, temperature change, static load level, boundary constraints on the dynamic stability, buckling and vibration frequencies are examined in detail through parametric studies.

MDA-based re-engineering with Object-Z

This paper describes a practical application of MDA and reverse engineering based on a domain-specific modelling language. A well defined metamodel of a domain-specific language is useful for verification and validation of associated tools. We apply this approach to SIFA, a security analysis tool. SIFA has evolved as requirements have changed, and it has no metamodel. Hence, testing SIFA’s correctness is difficult. We introduce a formal metamodelling approach to develop a well-defined metamodel of the domain. Initially, we develop a domain model in EMF by reverse engineering the SIFA implementation. Then we transform EMF to Object-Z using model transformation. Finally, we complete the Object-Z model by specifying system behavior. The outcome is a well-defined metamodel that precisely describes the domain and the security properties that it analyses. It also provides a reliable basis for testing the current SIFA implementation and forward engineering its successor.

Simulation modelling applied to runoff modelling using mapscript

Dynamic spatial analysis addresses computational aspects of space–time processing. This paper describes the development of a spatial analysis tool and modelling framework that together offer a solution for simulating landscape processes. A better approach to integrating landscape spatial analysis with Geographical Information Systems is advocated in this paper. Enhancements include special spatial operators and map algebra language constructs to handle dispersal and advective flows over landscape surfaces. These functional components to landscape modelling are developed in a modular way and are linked together in a modelling framework that performs dynamic simulation. The concepts and modelling framework are demonstrated using a hydrological modelling example. The approach provides a modelling environment for scientists and land resource managers to write and to visualize spatial process models with ease.

A rogue is a rogue is a rogue: US foreign policy and the Korean nuclear crisis

Two nuclear crises recently haunted the Korean peninsula, one in 1993/4, the other in 2002/3. In each case the events-were strikingly similar: North Korea made public its ambition to acquire nuclear weapons and withdrew from the Nonproliferation Treaty. Then the situation rapidly deteriorated until the peninsular was literally on the verge of war. The dangers of North Korea's actions, often interpreted as nuclear brinkmanship, are evident. and much discussed, but not so the underlying patterns that have shaped the conflict in the first place. This article sheds light on some of them. It examines the role of the United States in the crisis, arguing that Washington's inability to see North Korea as anything but a threatening 'rogue state' seriously hinders both an adequate understanding and possible resolution of the conflict. Particularly significant is the current policy of pre-emptive strikes against rogue states, for it reinforces half a century of American nuclear threats towards North Korea. The problematic role of these threats has been largely obscured, not least because the highly technical discourse of security analysis has managed to present the strategic situation on the peninsula in a manner that attributes responsibility for the crisis solely to North Korea's actions, even if the situation is in reality far more complex and interactive.

Phase behavior, crystallization, and morphology in thermosetting blends of a biodegradable poly(ethylene glycol)-type epoxy resin and poly(ε-caprolactone)

Thermosetting blends of a biodegradable poly(ethylene glycol)-type epoxy resin (PEG-ER) and poly(epsilon-caprolactone) (PCL) were prepared via an in situ curing reaction of poly(ethylene glycol) diglycidyl ether (PEGDGE) and maleic anhydride (MAH) in the presence of PCL. The miscibility, phase behavior, crystallization, and morphology of these blends were investigated. The uncured PCL/PEGDGE blends were miscible, mainly because of the entropic contribution, as the molecular weight of PEGDGE was very low. The crystallization and melting behavior of both PCL and the poly(ethylene glycol) (PEG) segment of PEGDGE were less affected in the uncured PCL/PEGDGE blends because of the very close glass-transition temperatures of PCL and PEGDGE. However, the cured PCL/PEG-ER blends were immiscible and exhibited two separate glass transitions, as revealed by differential scanning calorimetry and dynamic mechanical analysis. There existed two phases in the cured PCL/PEG-ER blends, that is, a PCL-rich phase and a PEG-ER crosslinked phase composed of an MAH-cured PEGDGE network. The crystallization of PCL was slightly enhanced in the cured blends because of the phase-separated nature; meanwhile, the PEG segment was highly restricted in the crosslinked network and was noncrystallizable in the cured blends. The phase structure and morphology of the cured PCL/PEG-ER blends were examined with scanning electron microscopy; a variety of phase morphologies were observed that depended on the blend composition. (C) 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Single-subject research designs and data analyses for assessing elite athletes' conditioning

Research in conditioning (all the processes of preparation for competition) has used group research designs, where multiple athletes are observed at one or more points in time. However, empirical reports of large inter-individual differences in response to conditioning regimens suggest that applied conditioning research would greatly benefit from single-subject research designs. Single-subject research designs allow us to find out the extent to which a specific conditioning regimen works for a specific athlete, as opposed to the average athlete, who is the focal point of group research designs. The aim of the following review is to outline the strategies and procedures of single-subject research as they pertain to.. the assessment of conditioning for individual athletes. The four main experimental designs in single-subject research are: the AB design, reversal (withdrawal) designs and their extensions, multiple baseline designs and alternating treatment designs. Visual and statistical analyses commonly used to analyse single-subject data, and advantages and limitations are discussed. Modelling of multivariate single-subject data using techniques such as dynamic factor analysis and structural equation modelling may identify individualised models of conditioning leading to better prediction of performance. Despite problems associated with data analyses in single-subject research (e.g. serial dependency), sports scientists should use single-subject research designs in applied conditioning research to understand how well an intervention (e.g. a training method) works and to predict performance for a particular athlete.

Phase separation, porous structure, and cure kinetics in aliphatic epoxy resin containing hyperbranched polyester

Thermosetting blends of an aliphatic epoxy resin and a hydroxyl-functionalized hyperbranched polymer (HBP), aliphatic hyperbranched polyester Boltorn H40, were prepared using 4,4'-diaminodiphenylmethane (DDM) as the curing agent. The phase behavior and morphology of the DDM-cured epoxy/HBP blends with HBP content up to 40 wt% were investigated by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA), and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The cured epoxy/HBP blends are immiscible and exhibit two separate glass transitions, as revealed by DMA. The SEM observation showed that there exist two phases in the cured blends, which is an epoxy-rich phase and an HBP-rich phase, which is responsible for the two separate glass transitions. The phase morphology was observed to be dependent on the blend composition. For the blends with HBP content up to 10 wt%, discrete HBP domains are dispersed in the continuous cured epoxy matrix, whereas the cured blend with 40 wt% HBP exhibits a combined morphology of connected globules and bicominuous phase structure. Porous epoxy thermosets with continuous open structures on the order of 100-300 nm were formed after the HBP-rich phase was extracted with solvent from the cured blend with 40 wt% HBP. The DSC study showed that the curing rate is not obviously affected in the epoxy/HBP blends with HBP content up to 40 wt %. The activation energy values obtained are not remarkably changed in the blends; the addition of HBP to epoxy resin thus does not change the mechanism of cure reaction of epoxy resin with DDM. (c) 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Art after 9/11

This article examines ways in which art can help broaden understandings of contemporary security challenges, especially in view of the limits of conventional forms of strategic and policy analysis. The article focuses especially on responses to 9/11 in literature, the visual arts, architecture, and music, and considers some epistemological questions about the status of art as a way of knowing political events, like those of 9/11, that escape state-based forms of security analysis.

Analysis of dynamic process models for structural insight and model reduction .1. Structural identification measures

An important consideration in the development of mathematical models for dynamic simulation, is the identification of the appropriate mathematical structure. By building models with an efficient structure which is devoid of redundancy, it is possible to create simple, accurate and functional models. This leads not only to efficient simulation, but to a deeper understanding of the important dynamic relationships within the process. In this paper, a method is proposed for systematic model development for startup and shutdown simulation which is based on the identification of the essential process structure. The key tool in this analysis is the method of nonlinear perturbations for structural identification and model reduction. Starting from a detailed mathematical process description both singular and regular structural perturbations are detected. These techniques are then used to give insight into the system structure and where appropriate to eliminate superfluous model equations or reduce them to other forms. This process retains the ability to interpret the reduced order model in terms of the physico-chemical phenomena. Using this model reduction technique it is possible to attribute observable dynamics to particular unit operations within the process. This relationship then highlights the unit operations which must be accurately modelled in order to develop a robust plant model. The technique generates detailed insight into the dynamic structure of the models providing a basis for system re-design and dynamic analysis. The technique is illustrated on the modelling for an evaporator startup. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd

Analysis of dynamic models for structural insight and model reduction .2. A multi-stage compressor shutdown case-study

In this second paper, the three structural measures which have been developed are used in the modelling of a three stage centrifugal synthesis gas compressor. The goal of this case study is to determine the essential mathematical structure which must be incorporated into the compressor model to accurately model the shutdown of this system. A simple, accurate and functional model of the system is created via three structural measures. It was found that the model can be correctly reduced into its basic modes and that the order of the differential system can be reduced from 51(st) to 20(th). Of the 31 differential equational 21 reduce to algebraic relations, 8 become constants and 2 can be deleted thereby increasing the algebraic set from 70 to 91 equations. An interpretation is also obtained as to which physical phenomena are dominating the dynamics of the compressor add whether the compressor will enter surge during the shutdown. Comparisons of the reduced model performance against the full model are given, showing the accuracy and applicability of the approach. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd

Implications of seasonal climate forecasts on world wheat trade: a stochastic, dynamic analysis

Improvements in seasonal climate forecasts have potential economic implications for international agriculture. A stochastic, dynamic simulation model of the international wheat economy is developed to estimate the potential effects of seasonal climate forecasts for various countries' wheat production, exports and world trade. Previous studies have generally ignored the stochastic and dynamic aspects of the effects associated with the use of climate forecasts. This study shows the importance of these aspects. In particular with free trade, the use of seasonal forecasts results in increased producer surplus across all exporting countries. In fact, producers appear to capture a large share of the economic surplus created by using the forecasts. Further, the stochastic dimensions suggest that while the expected long-run benefits of seasonal forecasts are positive, considerable year-to-year variation in the distribution of benefits between producers and consumers should be expected. The possibility exists for an economic measure to increase or decrease over a 20-year horizon, depending on the particular sequence of years.