Identifying and predicting adolescent smokers' developmental trajectories

Very few studies have defined trajectories of smoking. In the present study, we modeled growth in adolescent smoking and empirically identified prototypical trajectories. We conceptualized escalation of smoking as a growth process and modeled rates of change and heterogeneity of these patterns using latent growth mixture modeling. The analysis identified six trajectories with low ambiguity about group membership (early rapid escalators, late rapid escalators, late moderate escalators, late slow escalators-smokers, stable puffers, and late slow escalators-puffers). A trajectory of quitters was not identified. We also examined predictors of the smoking trajectories. The predictors were assessed across the adolescent years and included variables related to smoking and other substance use, as well as a range of variables related to sociodemographic factors and mental health. Observed change in the pattern of predictors across age has implications for the mechanism of effect of these variables in relation to smoking trajectories, including predictors that differentiated among daily smokers, variables that may determine the trajectory (e.g., friends smoking), and variables that may result from the trajectory (e.g., marijuana use, less attachment to friends).

Adolescents' intentions to smoke as a predictor of smoking

Background. Adolescents' intentions to smoke are generally regarded as a valid and reliable predictor of subsequent smoking. This association is largely based on research with adults and needs a more detailed analysis for adolescents. Methods. Data on intentions and smoking status were collected as part of a longitudinal, birth-cohort study when the study members were 9, 11, 13, 15, 18, and 21 years of age. Results. The results showed that intention to smoke only had an important predictive power in the subgroup of previous nonsmokers. Among those already smoking (on a monthly basis or greater), previous level of smoking was a more important predictor of future behavior than intention to smoke. In addition, the effect of positive intention to smoke was nonlinear over age and had the greatest effect at age 15. Conclusion. The results indicated that in adolescence, measurement of intentions to smoke or not smoke cannot be assumed to be a general predictor of behavior at a later age for all groups of adolescents. (C) 2004 The Institute For Cancer Prevention and Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.