A refined solution to the first terrestrial Pb-isotope paradox

The first terrestrial Pb-isotope paradox refers to the fact that on average, rocks from the Earth's surface (i.e. the accessible Earth) plot significantly to the right of the meteorite isochron in a common Pb-isotope diagram. The Earth as a whole, however, should plot close to the meteorite isochron, implying the existence of at least one terrestrial reservoir that plots to the left of the meteorite isochron. The core and the lower continental crust are the two candidates that have been widely discussed in the past. Here we propose that subducted oceanic crust and associated continental sediment stored as garnetite slabs in the mantle Transition Zone or mid-lower mantle are an additional potential reservoir that requires consideration. We present evidence from the literature that indicates that neither the core nor the lower crust contains sufficient unradiogenic Pb to balance the accessible Earth. Of all mantle magmas, only rare alkaline melts plot significantly to the left of the meteorite isochron. We interpret these melts to be derived from the missing mantle reservoir that plots to the left of the meteorite isochron but, significantly, above the mid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB)-source mantle evolution line. Our solution to the paradox predicts the bulk silicate Earth to be more radiogenic in Pb-207/Pb-204 than present-day MORB-source mantle, which opens the possibility that undegassed primitive mantle might be the source of certain ocean island basalts (OIB). Further implications for mantle dynamics and oceanic magmatism are discussed based on a previously justified proposal that lamproites and associated rocks could derive from the Transition Zone.

Motorcycle accident risk could be inflated by a time to arrival illusion

Purpose. Drivers adopt smaller safety margins when pulling out in front of motorcycles compared with cars. This could partly account for why the most common motorcycle/car accident involves a car violating a motorcyclist's right of way. One possible explanation is the size-arrival effect in which smaller objects are perceived to arrive later than larger objects. That is, drivers may estimate the time to arrival of motorcycles to be later than cars because motorcycles are smaller. Methods. We investigated arrival time judgments using a temporal occlusion paradigm. Drivers recruited from the student population (n = 28 and n = 33) saw video footage of oncoming vehicles and had to press a response button when they judged that vehicles would reach them. Results. In experiment 1, the time to arrival of motorcycles was estimated to be significantly later than larger vehicles (a car and a van) for different approach speeds and viewing times. In experiment 2, we investigated an alternative explanation to the size-arrival effect: that the smaller size of motorcycles places them below the threshold needed for observers to make an accurate time to arrival judgment using tau. We found that the motorcycle/car difference in arrival time estimates was maintained for very short occlusion durations when tau could be estimated for both motorcycles and cars. Conclusions. Results are consistent with the size-arrival effect and are inconsistent with the tau threshold explanation. Drivers estimate motorcycles will reach them later than cars across a range of conditions. This could have safety implications.