El Nino and arboviral disease prediction

Recent El Nino events have stimulated interest in the development of modeling techniques to forecast extremes of climate and related health events. Previous studies have documented associations between specific climate variables (particularly temperature and rainfall) and outbreaks of arboviral disease. In some countries, such diseases are sensitive to Fl Nino. Here we describe a climate-based model for the prediction of Ross River virus epidemics in Australia. From a literature search and data on case notifications, we determined in which years there were epidemics of Ross River virus in southern Australia between 1928 and 1998. Predictor variables were monthly Southern Oscillation index values for the year of an epidemic or lagged by 1 year. We found that in southeastern states, epidemic years were well predicted by monthly Southern Oscillation index values in January and September in the previous year. The model forecasts that there is a high probability of epidemic Ross River virus in the southern states of Australia in 1999. We conclude that epidemics of arboviral disease can, at least in principle, be predicted on the basis of climate relationships.

Influence of magnetically-induced E-fields on cardiac electric activity during MRI: A modeling study

In modern magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), patients are exposed to strong, time-varying gradient magnetic fields that may be able to induce electric fields (E-fields)/currents in tissues approaching the level of physiological significance. In this work we present theoretical investigations into induced E-fields in the thorax, and evaluate their potential influence on cardiac electric activity under the assumption that the sites of maximum E-field correspond to the myocardial stimulation threshold (an abnormal circumstance). Whole-body cylindrical and planar gradient coils were included in the model. The calculations of the induced fields are based on an efficient, quasi-static, finite-difference scheme and an anatomically realistic, whole-body model. The potential for cardiac stimulation was evaluated using an electrical model of the heart. Twelve-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) signals were simulated and inspected for arrhythmias caused by the applied fields for both healthy and diseased hearts. The simulations show that the shape of the thorax and the conductive paths significantly influence induced E-fields. In healthy patients, these fields are not sufficient to elicit serious arrhythmias with the use of contemporary gradient sets. However, raising the strength and number of repeated switching episodes of gradients, as is certainly possible in local chest gradient sets, could expose patients to increased risk. For patients with cardiac disease, the risk factors are elevated. By the use of this model, the sensitivity of cardiac pathologies, such as abnormal conductive pathways, to the induced fields generated by an MRI sequence can be investigated. (C) 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Mapping hippocampal and ventricular change in Alzheimer disease

We developed an anatomical mapping technique to detect hippocampal and ventricular changes in Alzheimer disease (AD). The resulting maps are sensitive to longitudinal changes in brain structure as the disease progresses. An anatomical surface modeling approach was combined with surface-based statistics to visualize the region and rate of atrophy in serial MRI scans and isolate where these changes link with cognitive decline. Fifty-two high-resolution MRI scans were acquired from 12 AD patients (age: 68.4 +/- 1.9 years) and 14 matched controls (age: 71.4 +/- 0.9 years), each scanned twice (2.1 +/- 0.4 years apart). 3D parametric mesh models of the hippocampus and temporal horns were created in sequential scans and averaged across subjects to identify systematic patterns of atrophy. As an index of radial atrophy, 3D distance fields were generated relating each anatomical surface point to a medial curve threading down the medial axis of each structure. Hippocampal atrophic rates and ventricular expansion were assessed statistically using surface-based permutation testing and were faster in AD than in controls. Using color-coded maps and video sequences, these changes were visualized as they progressed anatomically over time. Additional maps localized regions where atrophic changes linked with cognitive decline. Temporal horn expansion maps were more sensitive to AD progression than maps of hippocampal atrophy, but both maps correlated with clinical deterioration. These quantitative, dynamic visualizations of hippocampal atrophy and ventricular expansion rates in aging and AD may provide a promising measure to track AD progression in drug trials. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling the development of acquired clinical immunity to Plasmodium falciparum malaria

Individuals living in regions where malaria is endemic develop an acquired immunity to malaria which enables them to remain asymptomatic while still carrying parasites. Field studies indicate that cumulative exposure to a variety of diverse Plasmodium parasites is required for the transition from symptomatic to asymptomatic malaria. This study used a simulation model of the within-host dynamics of P. falciparum to investigate the development of acquired clinical immunity under different transmission conditions and levels of parasite diversity. Antibodies developed to P. falciparum erythrocyte membrane protein 1 (PfEMP1), a clonally variant molecule, were assumed to be a key human immunological response to P. falciparum infection, along with responses to clonally conserved but polymorphic antigens. The time to the development of clinical immunity was found to be proportional to parasite diversity and inversely proportional to transmission intensity. The effect of early termination of symptomatic infections by chemotherapy was investigated and found not to inhibit the host's ability to develop acquired immunity. However, the time required to achieve this state was approximately double that compared to when no treatment was administered. This study demonstrates that an immune response primarily targeted against PfEMP1 has the ability to reduce clinical symptoms of infections irrespective of whether treatment is administered, supporting its role in the development of acquired clinical immunity. The results also illustrate a novel use for simulation models of P. falciparum infections, investigation of the influence of intervention strategies on the development of naturally acquired clinical immunity.

Exposing extinction risk analysis to pathogens: Is disease just another form of density dependence?

In the United States and several other countries., the development of population viability analyses (PVA) is a legal requirement of any species survival plan developed for threatened and endangered species. Despite the importance of pathogens in natural populations, little attention has been given to host-pathogen dynamics in PVA. To study the effect of infectious pathogens on extinction risk estimates generated from PVA, we review and synthesize the relevance of host-pathogen dynamics in analyses of extinction risk. We then develop a stochastic, density-dependent host-parasite model to investigate the effects of disease on the persistence of endangered populations. We show that this model converges on a Ricker model of density dependence under a suite of limiting assumptions, including. a high probability that epidemics will arrive and occur. Using this modeling framework, we then quantify: (1) dynamic differences between time series generated by disease and Ricker processes with the same parameters; (2) observed probabilities of quasi-extinction for populations exposed to disease or self-limitation; and (3) bias in probabilities of quasi-extinction estimated by density-independent PVAs when populations experience either form of density dependence. Our results suggest two generalities about the relationships among disease, PVA, and the management of endangered species. First, disease more strongly increases variability in host abundance and, thus, the probability of quasi-extinction, than does self-limitation. This result stems from the fact that the effects and the probability of occurrence of disease are both density dependent. Second, estimates of quasi-extinction are more often overly optimistic for populations experiencing disease than for those subject to self-limitation. Thus, although the results of density-independent PVAs may be relatively robust to some particular assumptions about density dependence, they are less robust when endangered populations are known to be susceptible to disease. If potential management actions involve manipulating pathogens, then it may be useful to. model disease explicitly.

Statistical modeling and projections of lung cancer mortality in 4 industrialized countries

The purpose of this work was to model lung cancer mortality as a function of past exposure to tobacco and to forecast age-sex-specific lung cancer mortality rates. A 3-factor age-period-cohort (APC) model, in which the period variable is replaced by the product of average tar content and adult tobacco consumption per capita, was estimated for the US, UK, Canada and Australia by the maximum likelihood method. Age- and sex-specific tobacco consumption was estimated from historical data on smoking prevalence and total tobacco consumption. Lung cancer mortality was derived from vital registration records. Future tobacco consumption, tar content and the cohort parameter were projected by autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) estimation. The optimal exposure variable was found to be the product of average tar content and adult cigarette consumption per capita, lagged for 2530 years for both males and females in all 4 countries. The coefficient of the product of average tar content and tobacco consumption per capita differs by age and sex. In all models, there was a statistically significant difference in the coefficient of the period variable by sex. In all countries, male age-standardized lung cancer mortality rates peaked in the 1980s and declined thereafter. Female mortality rates are projected to peak in the first decade of this century. The multiplicative models of age, tobacco exposure and cohort fit the observed data between 1950 and 1999 reasonably well, and time-series models yield plausible past trends of relevant variables. Despite a significant reduction in tobacco consumption and average tar content of cigarettes sold over the past few decades, the effect on lung cancer mortality is affected by the time lag between exposure and established disease. As a result, the burden of lung cancer among females is only just reaching, or soon will reach, its peak but has been declining for I to 2 decades in men. Future sex differences in lung cancer mortality are likely to be greater in North America than Australia and the UK due to differences in exposure patterns between the sexes. (c) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Simulation of Brugada syndrome using cellular and three-dimensional whole-heart modeling approaches

Brugada syndrome (BS) is a genetic disease identified by an abnormal electrocardiogram ( ECG) ( mainly abnormal ECGs associated with right bundle branch block and ST-elevation in right precordial leads). BS can lead to increased risk of sudden cardiac death. Experimental studies on human ventricular myocardium with BS have been limited due to difficulties in obtaining data. Thus, the use of computer simulation is an important alternative. Most previous BS simulations were based on animal heart cell models. However, due to species differences, the use of human heart cell models, especially a model with three-dimensional whole-heart anatomical structure, is needed. In this study, we developed a model of the human ventricular action potential (AP) based on refining the ten Tusscher et al (2004 Am. J. Physiol. Heart Circ. Physiol. 286 H1573 - 89) model to incorporate newly available experimental data of some major ionic currents of human ventricular myocytes. These modified channels include the L-type calcium current (ICaL), fast sodium current (I-Na), transient outward potassium current (I-to), rapidly and slowly delayed rectifier potassium currents (I-Kr and I-Ks) and inward rectifier potassium current (I-Ki). Transmural heterogeneity of APs for epicardial, endocardial and mid-myocardial (M) cells was simulated by varying the maximum conductance of IKs and Ito. The modified AP models were then used to simulate the effects of BS on cellular AP and body surface potentials using a three-dimensional dynamic heart - torso model. Our main findings are as follows. (1) BS has little effect on the AP of endocardial or mid-myocardial cells, but has a large impact on the AP of epicardial cells. (2) A likely region of BS with abnormal cell AP is near the right ventricular outflow track, and the resulting ST-segment elevation is located in the median precordium area. These simulation results are consistent with experimental findings reported in the literature. The model can reproduce a variety of electrophysiological behaviors and provides a good basis for understanding the genesis of abnormal ECG under the condition of BS disease.

Morphosyntactic and syntactic priming: an investigation of underlying processing mechanisms and the effects of Parkinson’s disease

There is now considerable evidence to suggest that non-demented people with Parkinson's disease (PD) experience difficulties using the morphosyntactic aspects of language. It remains unclear, however, at precisely which point in the processing of morphosyntax, these difficulties emerge. The major objective of the present study was to examine the impact of PD on the processes involved in accessing morphosyntactic information in the lexicon. Nineteen people with PD and 19 matched control subjects participated in the study which employed on-line word recognition tasks to examine morphosyntactic priming for local grammatical dependencies that occur both within (e.g. is going) and across (e.g. she gives) phrasal boundaries (Experiments 1 and 2, respectively). The control group evidenced robust morphosyntactic priming effects that were consistent with the involvement of both pre- (Experiment 1) and post-lexical (Experiment 2) processing routines. Whilst the participants with PD also recorded priming for dependencies within phrasal boundaries (Experiment 1), priming effects were observed over an abnormally brief time course. Further, in contrast to the controls, the PD group failed to record morphosyntactic priming for constructions that crossed phrasal boundaries (Experiment 2). The results demonstrate that attentionally mediated mechanisms operating at both the pre- and post-lexical stages of processing are able to contribute to morphosyntactic priming effects. In addition, the findings support the notion that, whilst people with PD are able to access morphosyntactic information in a normal manner, the time frame in which this information remains available for processing is altered. Deficits may also be experienced at the post-lexical integrational stage of processing.

Discourse priming of homophones in individuals with dominant subcortical lesions, cortical lesions, and Parkinson’s disease

An on-line priming experiment was used to investigate discourse-level processing in four matched groups of subjects: individuals with nonthalamic subcortical lesions (NSL) ( n =10), normal control subjects ( n =10), subjects with Parkinsons disease (PD) ( n =10), and subjects with cortical lesions ( n =10). Subjects listened to paragraphs that ended in lexical ambiguities, and then made speeded lexical decisions on visual letter strings that were: nonwords, matched control words, contextually appropriate associates of the lexical ambiguity, contextually inappropriate associates of the ambiguity, and inferences (representing information which could be drawn from the paragraphs but was not explicitly stated). Targets were presented at an interstimulus interval (ISI) of 0 or 1000ms. NSL and PD subjects demonstrated priming for appropriate and inappropriate associates at the short ISI, similar to control subjects and cortical lesion subjects, but were unable to demonstrate selective priming of the appropriate associate and inference words at the long ISI. These results imply intact automatic lexical processing and a breakdown in discourse-based meaning selection and inference development via attentional/strategic mechanisms.

The prediction of disease risk in genomic medicine

In recent years, the phrase 'genomic medicine' has increasingly been used to describe a new development in medicine that holds great promise for human health. This new approach to health care uses the knowledge of an individual's genetic make-up to identify those that are at a higher risk of developing certain diseases and to intervene at an earlier stage to prevent these diseases. Identifying genes that are involved in disease aetiology will provide researchers with tools to develop better treatments and cures. A major role within this field is attributed to 'predictive genomic medicine', which proposes screening healthy individuals to identify those who carry alleles that increase their susceptibility to common diseases, such as cancers and heart disease. Physicians could then intervene even before the disease manifests and advise individuals with a higher genetic risk to change their behaviour - for instance, to exercise or to eat a healthier diet - or offer drugs or other medical treatment to reduce their chances of developing these diseases. These promises have fallen on fertile ground among politicians, health-care providers and the general public, particularly in light of the increasing costs of health care in developed societies. Various countries have established databases on the DNA and health information of whole populations as a first step towards genomic medicine. Biomedical research has also identified a large number of genes that could be used to predict someone's risk of developing a certain disorder. But it would be premature to assume that genomic medicine will soon become reality, as many problems remain to be solved. Our knowledge about most disease genes and their roles is far from sufficient to make reliable predictions about a patient’s risk of actually developing a disease. In addition, genomic medicine will create new political, social, ethical and economic challenges that will have to be addressed in the near future.

Environmental Risk Factors for Parkinson's Disease

Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a progressive, degenerative, neurological disease. The progressive disability associated with PD results in substantial burdens for those with the condition, their families and society in terms of increased health resource use, earnings loss of affected individuals and family caregivers, poorer quality of life, caregiver burden, disrupted family relationships, decreased social and leisure activities, and deteriorating emotional well-being. Currently, no cure is available and the efficacy of available treatments, such as medication and surgical interventions, decreases with longer duration of the disease. Whilst the cause of PD is unknown, genetic and environmental factors are believed to contribute to its aetiology. Descriptive and analytical epidemiological studies have been conducted in a number of countries in an effort to elucidate the cause, or causes, of PD. Rural residency, farming, well water consumption, pesticide exposure, metals and solvents have been implicated as potential risk factors for PD in some previous epidemiological studies. However, there is substantial disagreement between the results of existing studies. Therefore, the role of environmental exposures in the aetiology of PD remains unclear. The main component of this thesis consists of a case-control study that assessed the contribution of environmental exposures to the risk of developing PD. An existing, previously unanalysed, dataset from a local case-control study was analysed to inform the design of the new case-control study. The analysis results suggested that regular exposure to pesticides and head injury were important risk factors for PD. However, due to the substantial limitations of this existing study, further confirmation of these results was desirable with a more robustly designed epidemiological study. A new exposure measurement instrument (a structured interviewer-delivered questionnaire) was developed for the new case-control study to obtain data on demographic, lifestyle, environmental and medical factors. Prior to its use in the case-control study, the questionnaire was assessed for test-retest repeatability in a series of 32 PD cases and 29 healthy sex-, age- and residential suburb-matched electoral roll controls. High repeatability was demonstrated for lifestyle exposures, such as smoking and coffee/tea consumption (kappas 0.70-1.00). The majority of environmental exposures, including use of pesticides, solvents and exposure to metal dusts and fumes, also showed high repeatability (kappas >0.78). A consecutive series of 163 PD case participants was recruited from a neurology clinic in Brisbane. One hundred and fifty-one (151) control participants were randomly selected from the Australian Commonwealth Electoral Roll and individually matched to the PD cases on age (± 2 years), sex and current residential suburb. Participants ranged in age from 40-89 years (mean age 67 years). Exposure data were collected in face-to-face interviews. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using conditional logistic regression for matched sets in SAS version 9.1. Consistent with previous studies, ever having been a regular smoker or coffee drinker was inversely associated with PD with dose-response relationships evident for packyears smoked and number of cups of coffee drunk per day. Passive smoking from ever having lived with a smoker or worked in a smoky workplace was also inversely related to PD. Ever having been a regular tea drinker was associated with decreased odds of PD. Hobby gardening was inversely associated with PD. However, use of fungicides in the home garden or occupationally was associated with increased odds of PD. Exposure to welding fumes, cleaning solvents, or thinners occupationally was associated with increased odds of PD. Ever having resided in a rural or remote area was inversely associated with PD. Ever having resided on a farm was only associated with moderately increased odds of PD. Whilst the current study’s results suggest that environmental exposures on their own are only modest contributors to overall PD risk, the possibility that interaction with genetic factors may additively or synergistically increase risk should be considered. The results of this research support the theory that PD has a multifactorial aetiology and that environmental exposures are some of a number of factors to contribute to PD risk. There was also evidence of interaction between some factors (eg smoking and welding) to moderate PD risk.

Test–retest repeatability of self-reported environmental exposures in Parkinson’s disease cases and healthy controls

There is substantial disagreement among published epidemiological studies regarding environmental risk factors for Parkinson’s disease (PD). Differences in the quality of measurement of environmental exposures may contribute to this variation. The current study examined the test–retest repeatability of self-report data on risk factors for PD obtained from a series of 32 PD cases recruited from neurology clinics and 29 healthy sex-, age-and residential suburb-matched controls. Exposure data were collected in face-to-face interviews using a structured questionnaire derived from previous epidemiological studies. High repeatability was demonstrated for ‘lifestyle’ exposures, such as smoking and coffee/tea consumption (kappas 0.70–1.00). Environmental exposures that involved some action by the person, such as pesticide application and use of solvents and metals, also showed high repeatability (kappas>0.78). Lower repeatability was seen for rural residency and bore water consumption (kappa 0.39–0.74). In general, we found that case and control participants provided similar rates of incongruent and missing responses for categorical and continuous occupational, domestic, lifestyle and medical exposures.