Causality detection on US mutual fund movements using evolutionary subset time-series

In this paper we develop an evolutionary kernel-based time update algorithm to recursively estimate subset discrete lag models (including fullorder models) with a forgetting factor and a constant term, using the exactwindowed case. The algorithm applies to causality detection when the true relationship occurs with a continuous or a random delay. We then demonstrate the use of the proposed evolutionary algorithm to study the monthly mutual fund data, which come from the 'CRSP Survivor-bias free US Mutual Fund Database'. The results show that the NAV is an influential player on the international stage of global bond and stock markets.

A complex systems approach to the value of ecological resources

A theory of value sits at the core of every school of economic thought and directs the allocation of resources to competing uses. Ecological resources complicate the modem neoclassical approach to determining value due to their complex nature, considerable non-market values and the difficulty in assigning property rights. Application of the market model through economic valuation only provides analytical solutions based on virtual markets, and neither the demand nor supply-side techniques of valuation can adequately consider the complex set of biophysical and ecological relations that lead to the provision of ecosystem goods and services. This paper sets out a conceptual framework for a complex systems approach to the value of ecological resources. This approach is based on there being both an intrinsic quality of ecological resources and a subjective evaluation by the consumer. Both elements are necessary for economic value. This conceptual framework points the way towards a theory of value that incorporates both elements, so has implications for principles by which ecological resources can be allocated. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Does client size affect cleaner fish choice of client? An empirical test using client fish models

To determine whether the choice of client fishes in the cleaner fish Labroides dimidiatus was influenced by client size, cleaner fish were given a choice of equal amount of food spread on large and small client redfin butterflyfish Chaetodon trifasciatus models. All large models received bites from cleaners compared to 27% for small models. Seventy-nine per cent of cleaners took their first bite from the large fish model. The results suggest that client size may affect cleaner fish choice.

Warranty and discrete preventive maintenance

Preventive maintenance actions over the warranty period have an impact on the warranty servicing cost to the manufacturer and the cost to the buyer of fixing failures over the life of the product after the warranty expires. However, preventive maintenance costs money and is worthwhile only when these costs exceed the reduction in other costs. The paper deals with a model to determine when preventive maintenance actions (which rejuvenate the unit) carried out at discrete time instants over the warranty period are worthwhile. The cost of preventive maintenance is borne by the buyer. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Two empirical hydrocyclone models revisited

There has been an abundance of literature on the modelling of hydrocyclones over the past 30 years. However, in the comminution area at least, the more popular commercially available packages (e.g. JKSimMet, Limn, MODSIM) use the models developed by Nageswararao and Plitt in the 1970s, either as published at that time, or with minor modification. With the benefit of 30 years of hindsight, this paper discusses the assumptions and approximations used in developing these models. Differences in model structure and the choice of dependent and independent variables are also considered. Redundancies are highlighted and an assessment made of the general applicability of each of the models, their limitations and the sources of error in their model predictions. This paper provides the latest version of the Nageswararao model based on the above analysis, in a form that can readily be implemented in any suitable programming language, or within a spreadsheet. The Plitt model is also presented in similar form. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Energy level statistics for models of coupled single-mode Bose-Einstein condensates

We study the distribution of energy level spacings in two models describing coupled single-mode Bose-Einstein condensates. Both models have a fixed number of degrees of freedom, which is small compared to the number of interaction parameters, and is independent of the dimensionality of the Hilbert space. We find that the distribution follows a universal Poisson form independent of the choice of coupling parameters, which is indicative of the integrability of both models. These results complement those for integrable lattice models where the number of degrees of freedom increases with increasing dimensionality of the Hilbert space. Finally, we also show that for one model the inclusion of an additional interaction which breaks the integrability leads to a non-Poisson distribution.

Effects of potential models on the adsorption of ethane and ethylene on graphitized thermal carbon black. Study of two-dimensional critical temperature and isosteric heat versus loading

Adsorption of ethylene and ethane on graphitized thermal carbon black and in slit pores whose walls are composed of graphene layers is studied in detail to investigate the packing efficiency, the two-dimensional critical temperature, and the variation of the isosteric heat of adsorption with loading and temperature. Here we used a Monte Carlo simulation method with a grand canonical Monte Carlo ensemble. A number of two-center Lennard-Jones (LJ) potential models are investigated to study the impact of the choice of potential models in the description of adsorption behavior. We chose two 2C-LJ potential models in our investigation of the (i) UA-TraPPE-LJ model of Martin and Siepmann (J. Phys. Chem. B 1998,102, 25692577) for ethane and Wick et al. (J. Phys. Chem. B 2000,104, 8008-8016) for ethylene and (ii) AUA4-LJ model of Ungerer et al. (J. Chem. Phys. 2000,112, 5499-5510) for ethane and Bourasseau et al. (J. Chem. Phys. 2003, 118, 3020-3034) for ethylene. These models are used to study the adsorption of ethane and ethylene on graphitized thermal carbon black. It is found that the solid-fluid binary interaction parameter is a function of adsorbate and temperature, and the adsorption isotherms and heat of adsorption are well described by both the UA-TraPPE and AUA models, although the UA-TraPPE model performs slightly better. However, the local distributions predicted by these two models are slightly different. These two models are used to explore the two-dimensional condensation for the graphitized thermal carbon black, and these values are 110 K for ethylene and 120 K for ethane.

Impact of potential models on adsorption of linear molecules on carbon black

In this paper, we investigate the effects of potential models on the description of equilibria of linear molecules (ethylene and ethane) adsorption on graphitized thermal carbon black. GCMC simulation is used as a tool to give adsorption isotherms, isosteric heat of adsorption and the microscopic configurations of these molecules. At the heart of the GCMC are the potential models, describing fluid-fluid interaction and solid-fluid interaction. Here we studied the two potential models recently proposed in the literature, the UA-TraPPE and AUA4. Their impact in the description of adsorption behavior of pure components will be discussed. Mixtures of these components with nitrogen and argon are also studied. Nitrogen is modeled a two-site plus discrete charges while argon as a spherical particle. GCMC simulation is also used for generating simulation mixture isotherms. It is found that co-operation between species occurs when the surface is fractionally covered while competition is important when surface is fully loaded.

Oscillatory regulation of hes1: Discrete stochastic delay modelling and simulation

Discrete stochastic simulations are a powerful tool for understanding the dynamics of chemical kinetics when there are small-to-moderate numbers of certain molecular species. In this paper we introduce delays into the stochastic simulation algorithm, thus mimicking delays associated with transcription and translation. We then show that this process may well explain more faithfully than continuous deterministic models the observed sustained oscillations in expression levels of hes1 mRNA and Hes1 protein.

Physiologically based synthetic models of hepatic disposition

Current Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models are inductive. We present an additional, different approach that is based on the synthetic rather than the inductive approach to modeling and simulation. It relies on object-oriented programming A model of the referent system in its experimental context is synthesized by assembling objects that represent components such as molecules, cells, aspects of tissue architecture, catheters, etc. The single pass perfused rat liver has been well described in evaluating hepatic drug pharmacokinetics (PK) and is the system on which we focus. In silico experiments begin with administration of objects representing actual compounds. Data are collected in a manner analogous to that in the referent PK experiments. The synthetic modeling method allows for recognition and representation of discrete event and discrete time processes, as well as heterogeneity in organization, function, and spatial effects. An application is developed for sucrose and antipyrine, administered separately and together PBPK modeling has made extensive progress in characterizing abstracted PK properties but this has also been its limitation. Now, other important questions and possible extensions emerge. How are these PK properties and the observed behaviors generated? The inherent heuristic limitations of traditional models have hindered getting meaningful, detailed answers to such questions. Synthetic models of the type described here are specifically intended to help answer such questions. Analogous to wet-lab experimental models, they retain their applicability even when broken apart into sub-components. Having and applying this new class of models along with traditional PK modeling methods is expected to increase the productivity of pharmaceutical research at all levels that make use of modeling and simulation.

Modelling pre-clearing vegetation distribution using GIS-integrated statistical, ecological and data models: A case study from the wet tropics of Northeastern Australia

Traditional vegetation mapping methods use high cost, labour-intensive aerial photography interpretation. This approach can be subjective and is limited by factors such as the extent of remnant vegetation, and the differing scale and quality of aerial photography over time. An alternative approach is proposed which integrates a data model, a statistical model and an ecological model using sophisticated Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques and rule-based systems to support fine-scale vegetation community modelling. This approach is based on a more realistic representation of vegetation patterns with transitional gradients from one vegetation community to another. Arbitrary, though often unrealistic, sharp boundaries can be imposed on the model by the application of statistical methods. This GIS-integrated multivariate approach is applied to the problem of vegetation mapping in the complex vegetation communities of the Innisfail Lowlands in the Wet Tropics bioregion of Northeastern Australia. The paper presents the full cycle of this vegetation modelling approach including sampling sites, variable selection, model selection, model implementation, internal model assessment, model prediction assessments, models integration of discrete vegetation community models to generate a composite pre-clearing vegetation map, independent data set model validation and model prediction's scale assessments. An accurate pre-clearing vegetation map of the Innisfail Lowlands was generated (0.83r(2)) through GIS integration of 28 separate statistical models. This modelling approach has good potential for wider application, including provision of. vital information for conservation planning and management; a scientific basis for rehabilitation of disturbed and cleared areas; a viable method for the production of adequate vegetation maps for conservation and forestry planning of poorly-studied areas. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.