An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Parental occupation and Ewing's sarcoma: Pooled and meta-analysis

Etiologic data on Ewing's sarcoma family of tumors (ESFT) are limited, with only 5 case-control studies reported. Interesting associations, particularly related to parental occupation, have been noted, but results are somewhat inconsistent. We conducted a pooled analysis of 3 case-control studies to assess the overall associations between parental occupation and ESFT. The pooled analysis provided data on parental occupational exposure on 199 cases of ESFT and 1,451 controls. The pooled odds ratio for the periconception and gestation periods were 2.3 (95% CI = 1.3-4.1) for children whose fathers had worked on farms and 3.9 (95% CI 1.6-9.9) for those whose mothers had farmed. For the periconception and gestation periods, there was a 3.5-fold increased risk for those with both parents having farmed and a doubling of risk for those with at least one parent having farmed; pattern of increasing risk with increasing number of years of postnatal parental exposure to farms was seen. No other occupational group (or more narrowly defined occupations) had other than minor inconsistent associations with the occurrence of ESFT. In addition, we conducted a meta-analysis of farm occupation (a main risk factor) including all 4 case-control studies that collected required information to consider parental occupation. Results of the meta-analysis were consistent with those from the pooled analysis. This collaborative analysis of available individual data on parental occupation and ESFT in the offspring provides evidence supporting the hypothesis of an association between ESFT and parental occupation in farming. © 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.