Design options for sample-based mortality surveillance

Background Reliable information on causes of death is a fundamental component of health development strategies, yet globally only about one-third of countries have access to such information. For countries currently without adequate mortality reporting systems there are useful models other than resource-intensive population-wide medical certification. Sample-based mortality surveillance is one such approach. This paper provides methods for addressing appropriate sample size considerations in relation to mortality surveillance, with particular reference to situations in which prior information on mortality is lacking. Methods The feasibility of model-based approaches for predicting the expected mortality structure and cause composition is demonstrated for populations in which only limited empirical data is available. An algorithm approach is then provided to derive the minimum person-years of observation needed to generate robust estimates for the rarest cause of interest in three hypothetical populations, each representing different levels of health development. Results Modelled life expectancies at birth and cause of death structures were within expected ranges based on published estimates for countries at comparable levels of health development. Total person-years of observation required in each population could be more than halved by limiting the set of age, sex, and cause groups regarded as 'of interest'. Discussion The methods proposed are consistent with the philosophy of establishing priorities across broad clusters of causes for which the public health response implications are similar. The examples provided illustrate the options available when considering the design of mortality surveillance for population health monitoring purposes.

Recent developments on a nearshore, terrigenous-influenced reef: Low Isles Reef, Australia

Low Isles Reef is the most southerly located of 46 coral reef platforms unique to the inner shelf of the northern Great Barrier Reef Province, Australia, which support both sea grass and mangrove growth. Such reefs develop in areas that are influenced by river flood plumes and where interreef sediments are dominated by terrigenous mud. Low Isles Reef has long been a popular tourist destination. Informal reports of decreasing visibility, a decline in scleractinian corals, and increases in soft coral and macroalgae have sparked speculation that agricultural activities in coastal catchments are affecting the reef. Comparison of the modern surface of Low Isles Reef with historical surveys and photographs dating back to 1928 allows quantification of modern sedimentary processes, rates of change, and factors influencing reef development. Results indicate that changes on Low Isles Reef are related to remobilization of coarse sediment during storm events and gradual shoreline retreat associated with rising sea level. Retreat of shingle ramparts and elongate ridges of coral debris toward the reef interior has led to the infilling of subtidal ponds on the reef top, which supported hard coral colonies in 1928. The gradual development of a composite shingle rampart along the windward margin has promoted an increase (;150%) in the area of the reef top covered by mangroves. On the leeward margin, a decrease in hard corals since 1950 may reflect a rising contribution of organic debris from the expanding mangrove swamp. Results suggest that recent changes on Low Isles Reef can be explained in the context of natural processes. Further study is needed before the effects of agricultural activities in coastal catchments on reef health can be confirmed.

Australia: new screening method for cold tolerance during the reproducitve stage in rice

Low temperature, particularly during the reproductive stage of the development of rice, limits productivity in the Riverina region of New South Wales (NSW). This study primarily examined genotypic differences in cold damage that are associated with low temperature during reproductive development. Results from experiments in temperature-controlled rooms and the cold water facility were combined with four years of field experiments, which used natural exposure to low temperature to examine the response of over 50 cultivars from diverse origins. Plants were exposed to day/night air temperatures of 27°/13°C in temperature-controlled rooms and to a constant temperature of 19°C in the cold water facility. Low temperature treatments were imposed from panicle initiation (PI) to 50% heading. In field experiments several techniques were used to increase the likelihood of inducing cold damage such as sequential sowing dates (five to eight sowing dates each year), shallow water depths (5cm) and high nitrogen rates (e.g. 300kgN ha-1). Several cultivars were identified that were more cold tolerant than Australia’s commercial cultivars.

Knockdown of zebrafish crim1 results in a bent tail phenotype with defects in somite and vascular development

The Crim1 gene encodes a transmembrane protein containing six cysteine-rich repeats similar to those found in the BMP antagonist, chordin (chd). To investigate its physiological role, zebrafish crim1 was cloned and shown to be both maternally and zygotically expressed during zebrafish development in sites including the vasculature, intermediate cell mass. notochord, and otic vesicle. Bent or hooked tails with U-shaped somites were observed in 85% of morphants from 12 hpf. This was accompanied by a loss of muscle pioneer cells. While morpholino knockdown of crim1 showed some evidence of ventralisation, including expansion of the intermediate cell mass (ICM), reduction in head size bent tails and disruption to the somites and notochord, this did not mimic the classically ventralised phenotype, as assessed by the pattern of expression of the dorsal markers chordin, otx2 and the ventral markers eve1, pax2.1, tall and gata1 between 75% epiboly and six-somites. From 24 hpf, morphants displayed an expansion of the ventral mesoderm-derived ICM, as evidenced by expansion of tall. Imo2 and crim1 itself. Analysis of the crim1 morphant phenotype in Tg(fli:EGFP) fish showed a clear reduction in the endothelial cells forming the intersegmental vessels and a loss of the dorsal longitudinal anastomotic vessel (DLAV). Hence, the primary role of zebrafish crim1 is likely to be the regulation of somitic and vascular development. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.