Secular trend in the development of fatness during childhood and adolescence

This study examined the development of fatness, as indexed by skinfold thickness, in healthy Caucasian children and adolescents residing in the same location in Canada in the 1960s and the 1990s. The data comes from two longitudinal studies, conducted approximately 30 years apart, of children aged 8-16 years. The first study (1964-1973) annually measured 207 males and 140 females. The second investigation (1991-1997) repeatedly measured 113 males and 115 females. Identical measurement tools and protocols were used for height, body mass, and skinfolds. Maturational age was estimated as a measure in years from age of peak height velocity. Males from the second investigation matured significantly (P < 0.05) earlier. Multilevel regression modeling was utilized to determine developmental curves for the individuals within the two populations. When differences in height, body mass, and maturity were controlled, skinfold thicknesses of the males and females in the second study were significantly greater (P < 0.05) than age- and sex-matched peers in the first study. This was not seen in models of the BMI. The results suggest that when maturity and size were controlled, the fatness of children and adolescents increased over 30 years. (C) 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Human behaviour modelled as a statistico-deterministic turing machine

'Free will' and its corollary, the concept of individual responsibility are keystones of the justice system. This paper shows that if we accept a physics that disallows time reversal, the concept of 'free will' is undermined by an integrated understanding of the influence of genetics and environment on human behavioural responses. Analysis is undertaken by modelling life as a novel statistico-deterministic version of a Turing machine, i.e. as a series of transitions between states at successive instants of time. Using this model it is proven by induction that the entire course of life is independent of the action of free will. Although determined by prior state, the probability of transitions between states in response to a standard environmental stimulus is not equal to 1 and the transitions may differ quantitatively at the molecular level and qualitatively at the level of the whole organism. Transitions between states correspond to behaviours. It is shown that the behaviour of identical twins (or clones), although determined, would be incompletely predictable and non-identical, creating an illusion of the operation of 'free will'. 'Free will' is a convenient construct for current judicial systems and social control because it allows rationalization of punishment for those whose behaviour falls outside socially defined norms. Indeed, it is conceivable that maintenance of ideas of free will has co-evolved with community morality to reinforce its operation. If the concept is free will is to be maintained it would require revision of our current physical theories.

Deterministic generation of tailored-optical-coherent-state superpositions

Pulsed coherent excitation of a two-level atom strongly coupled to a resonant cavity mode will create a superposition of two coherent states of opposite amplitudes in the field. By choosing proper parameters of interaction time and pulse shape the field after the pulse will be almost disentangled from the atom and can be efficiently outcoupled through cavity decay. The fidelity of the generation approaches unity if the atom-field coupling strength is much larger than the atomic and cavity decay rates. This implies a strong difference between even and odd output photon number counts. Alternatively, the coherence of the two generated field components can be proven by phase-dependent annihilation of the generated nonclassical superposition state by a second pulse.

Alpha-cellulose δ13C variation in mangrove tree rings correlates well with annual sea level trend between 1982 and 1999

A pilot study of tree rings in a modern mangrove tree (Rhizophora apiculata) from Leizhou Peninsula, northern South China Sea shows that ( 1) the tree-rings are annual; ( 2) the ring widths decrease; and ( 3) their alpha-cellulose delta(13)C values increase from 1982 to 1999 AD, consistent with the trends of annual sea level, salinity and sea surface temperatures in the same period. We propose that such changes were caused by increasingly longer duration of waterlogging in response to sea-level rise. If this is the case, alpha-cellulose delta(13)C in mangrove tree rings can be used as a potential indicator of past sea level fluctuations.

Thirty-year recovery trend in the once depleted Hawaiian green sea turtle stock

The green sea turtle is one of the long-lived species that comprise the charismatic marine megafauna. The green turtle has a long history of human exploitation with some stocks extinct. Here we report on a 30-year study of the nesting abundance of the green turtle stock endemic to the Hawaiian Archipelago. We show that there has been a substantial long-term increase in abundance of this once seriously depleted stock following cessation of harvesting since the 1970s. This population increase has occurred in a far shorter period of time than previously thought possible. There was also a distinct 3-4 year periodicity in annual nesting abundance that might be a function of regional environmental stochasticity that synchronises breeding behaviour throughout the Archipelago. This is one of the few reliable long-term population abundance time series for a large long-lived marine species, which are needed for gaining insights into the recovery process of long-lived marine species and long-term ecological processes. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Water quality condition and trend in North Queensland waterways

The Queensland Environmental Protection Agency monitored water quality at 133 sites in North Queensland waterways between Cooktown and Bundaburg from 1992 to 2001. Condition of the waterways was rated by comparing recent data with the Queensland Water Quality Guidelines. Long-term trends were analysed using a censored regression technique that incorporates the effects of flow, temperature, seasonality and allows for long-term non-linear trends. Many sites were in good condition; those in poor condition were usually impacted by point source discharges; those in moderate condition were usually impacted by agricultural land use. There were no consistent long-term trends across the whole region. Recommendations for future programs include incorporating pressure indicators, ensuring high standards of quality assurance, including covariates such as rainfall in trend assessment and continuing programs over more than 10 years to allow detection of trends due to changes in land-use. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect on trend estimates of the difference between survey respondents and non-respondents: Results from 27 populations in the WHO MONIICA Project

Introduction: In the World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA (multinational MONItoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease) Project considerable effort was made to obtain basic data on non-respondents to community based surveys of cardiovascular risk factors. The first purpose of this paper is to examine differences in socio-economic and health profiles among respondents and non-respondents. The second purpose is to investigate the effect of non-response on estimates of trends. Methods:Socio-economic and health profile between respondents and non-respondents in the WHO MONICA Project final survey were compared. The potential effect of non-response on the trend estimates between the initial survey and final survey approximately ten years later was investigated using both MONICA data and hypothetical data. Results: In most of the populations, non-respondents were more likely to be single, less well educated, and had poorer lifestyles and health profiles than respondents. As an example of the consequences, temporal trends in prevalence of daily smokers are shown to be overestimated in most populations if they were based only on data from respondents. Conclusions: The socio-economic and health profiles of respondents and non-respondents differed fairly consistently across 27 populations. Hence, the estimators of population trends based on respondent data are likely to be biased. Declining response rates therefore pose a threat to the accuracy of estimates of risk factor trends in many countries.