Accounting for uncertainty in marine reserve design

Ecosystems and the species and communities within them are highly complex systems that defy predictions with any degree of certainty. Managing and conserving these systems in the face of uncertainty remains a daunting challenge, particularly with respect to developing networks of marine reserves. Here we review several modelling frameworks that explicitly acknowledge and incorporate uncertainty, and then use these methods to evaluate reserve spacing rules given increasing levels of uncertainty about larval dispersal distances. Our approach finds similar spacing rules as have been proposed elsewhere - roughly 20-200 km - but highlights several advantages provided by uncertainty modelling over more traditional approaches to developing these estimates. In particular, we argue that uncertainty modelling can allow for (1) an evaluation of the risk associated with any decision based on the assumed uncertainty; (2) a method for quantifying the costs and benefits of reducing uncertainty; and (3) a useful tool for communicating to stakeholders the challenges in managing highly uncertain systems. We also argue that incorporating rather than avoiding uncertainty will increase the chances of successfully achieving conservation and management goals.

Sustainable design practitioners: Why they must be at the centre of discussions on sustainable design education

Sustainable design education is vital for engineering students. This is to allow them to meet the challenges both engineering and the wider community will face in the future. This need has not only been mandated by Engineers Australia’s graduate attributes from an Australian perspective, but more widely the issue of sustainability is one of the greatest challenges humanity has ever faced. Engineers need to be at the forefront of this challenge, because we can not only do the greatest good, but have the potential to cause the greatest harm. The biggest question with respect to the education of engineers about sustainable design is what do engineers need to know, and how best to enable this learning. This paper argues that since the entire phenomenon of sustainable design is constantly growing and changing, it is only by looking at practitioners currently trying design sustainably, and their ways of experiencing sustainable design, can we hope to articulate what it is, and therefore what and how we need to teach engineering students. It also argues that to accommodate sustainable design within engineering, we need to go further and transform the engineering profession to enable it to meet the challenges that sustainability presents. © 2005, Australasian Association for Engineering Education