High circulating levels of the dengue virus nonstructural protein NS1 early in dengue illness correlate with the development of dengue hemorrhagic fever

Infection with any 1 of 4 dengue viruses produces a spectrum of clinical illness ranging from a mild undifferentiated febrile illness to dengue fever (DF) to dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), a potentially life-threatening disease. The morbidity and mortality of DHF can be reduced by early hospitalization and careful supportive care. To determine its usefulness as a predictor of DHF, plasma levels of the secreted dengue virus nonstructural protein NS1 (sNS1) were measured daily in 32 children with dengue-2 virus infections participating in a prospective, hospital-based study. Free sNS1 levels in plasma correlated with viremia levels and were higher in patients with DHF than in those with DF. An elevated free sNS1 level (greater than or equal to600 ng/mL) within 72 h of illness onset identified patients at risk for developing DHF.

Dengue virus binding to human leukocyte cell lines: receptor usage differs between cell types and virus strains

Monocyte macrophages (M phi) are thought to be the principal target cells for the dengue viruses (DV), the cause of dengue fever and hemorrhagic fever. Cell attachment is mediated by the virus envelope (E) protein, but the host-cell receptors remain elusive. Currently, candidate receptor molecules include proteins, Fc receptors, glycosaminoglycans (GAGs) and lipopolysaccharide binding CD14-associated molecules. Here, we show that in addition to M phi, cells of the T- and B-cell lineages, and including cells lacking GAGs, can bind and become infected with DV. The level of virus binding varied widely between cell lines and, notably, between virus strains within a DV serotype. The latter difference may be ascribable to one or more amino acid differences in domain II of the E protein. Heparin had no significant effect on DV binding, while heparinase treatment of cells in all cases increased DV binding, further supporting the contention that GAGs are not required for DV binding and infection of human cells. In contrast to a recent report, we found that lipopolysaccharide (LPS) had either no effect or enhanced DV binding to, and infection of various human leukocyte cell lines, while in all virus-cell combinations, depletion of Ca2+/Mg2+ enhanced DV binding. This argues against involvement of beta (2) integrins in virus-host cell interactions, a conclusion in accord with the demonstration of three virus binding membrane proteins of < 75 kDa. Collectively, the results of this study question the purported exclusive importance of the E protein domain III in DV binding to host cells and point to a far more complex interaction between various target cells and, notably, individual DV strains. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Epidemiological significance of subterranean Aedes aegypti (Diptera : Culicidae) breeding sites to dengue virus infection in charters towers, 1993

The objective of this study was to determine the epidemiological significance of subterranean mosquito breeding sites to the 1993 outbreak of dengue fever (type 2) in the northern Queensland town of Charters Towers, Australia. In recent studies on subterranean mosquito breeding, containers such as wells and service manholes have been shown to be important breeding sites to Australia's only dengue vector, Aedes aegypti (L.). This study demonstrates a direct epidemiological association between subterranean breeding sites and dengue virus infection. The mean distance between residents seropositive for dengue 2 and the nearest subterranean container (113 m) was significantly less than for a randomly selected control (191 m), (F = 81.9; df = 1, 478; P < 0.001). Residents positive for dengue 2 antibodies was 2.47 (95% confidence interval 1.88-3.24) times higher for those living within 160 m of a well or service manhole, compared with those residing further away. These findings emphasize the importance of including subterranean water containers in Ae. aegypti surveillance and control programs.

Interval breast cancers in an Australian mammographic screening program

Objective: To determine the incidence of interval cancers which occurred in the first 12 months after mammographic screening at a mammographic screening service. Design: Retrospective analysis of data obtained by crossmatching the screening Service and the New South Wales Central Cancer Registry databases. Setting: The Central & Eastern Sydney Service of BreastScreen NSW. Participants: Women aged 40-69 years at first screen, who attended for their first or second screen between 1 March 1988 and 31 December 1992. Main outcome measures: Interval-cancer rates per 10 000 screens and as a proportion of the underlying incidence of breast cancer (as estimated by the underlying rate in the total NSW population). Results: The 12-month interval-cancer incidence per 10 000 screens was 4.17 for the 40-49 years age group (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.35-9.73) and 4.64 for the 50-69 years age group (95% CI, 2.47-7.94). Proportional incidence rates were 30.1% for the 40-49 years age group (95% CI, 9.8-70.3) and 22% for the 50-69 years age group (95% CI, 11.7-37.7). There was no significant difference between the proportional incidence rate for the 50-69 years age group for the Central & Eastern Sydney Service and those of major successful overseas screening trials. Conclusion: Screening quality was acceptable and should result in a significant mortality reduction in the screened population. Given the small number of cancers involved, comparison of interval-cancer statistics of mammographic screening programs with trials requires age-specific or age-adjusted data, and consideration of confidence intervals of both program and trial data.

Opioid overdose mortality in Australia, 1964-1997: birth-cohort trends

Objective: To examine trends in rates of opioid overdose deaths from 1964 to 1997 in different birth cohorts. Design: Age-period-cohort analysis of national data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Main outcome measures: Annual population rates of death attributed to opioid dependence or accidental opioid poisoning in people aged 15-44 years, by sex and birth cohort tin five-year intervals, 1940-1944 to 1975-1979). Results: The rate of opioid overdose deaths increased 55-fold between 1964 and 1997, from 1.3 to 71.5 per million population aged 15-44 years. The rate of opioid overdose deaths also increased substantially over the eight birth cohorts, with an incidence rate ratio of 20.70 (95% confidence interval, 13.60-31.46) in the 1975-1979 cohort compared with the 1940-1944 cohort. The age at which the cumulative rate of opioid overdose deaths reached 300 per million fell in successive cohorts (for men, from 28 years among those born 1955-1959 to 22 years among those born 1965-1974; for women, from 33 years among those born 1955-1959 to 27 years among those born 1965-1969). Conclusions: Heroin use in Australia largely began in the early 1970s and rates of heroin use have markedly increased in birth cohorts born since 1950.

Geographical variation in the penetrance of CDKN2A mutations for melanoma

Background: Germline mutations in the CDKN2A gene, which encodes two proteins (p16INK4A and p14ARF), are the most common cause of inherited susceptibility to melanoma. We examined the penetrance of such mutations using data from eight groups from Europe, Australia and the United States that are part of The Melanoma Genetics Consortium Methods: We analyzed 80 families with documented CDKN2A mutations and multiple cases of cutaneous melanoma. We modeled penetrance for melanoma using a logistic regression model incorporating survival analysis. Hypothesis testing was based on likelihood ratio tests. Covariates included gender, alterations in p14APF protein, and population melanoma incidence rates. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: The 80 analyzed families contained 402 melanoma patients, 320 of whom were tested for mutations and 291 were mutation carriers. We also tested 713 unaffected family members for mutations and 194 were carriers. Overall, CDKN2A mutation penetrance was estimated to be 0.30 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.12 to 0.62) by age 50 years and 0.67 (95% CI = 0.31 to 0.96) by age 80 years. Penetrance was not statistically significantly modified by gender or by whether the CDKN2A mutation altered p14ARF protein. However, there was a statistically significant effect of residing in a location with a high population incidence rate of melanoma (P = .003). By age 50 years CDKN2A mutation penetrance reached 0.13 in Europe, 0.50 in the United States, and 0.32 in Australia; by age 80 years it was 0.58 in Europe, 0.76 in the United States, and 0.91 in Australia. Conclusions: This study, which gives the most informed estimates of CDKN2A mutation penetrance available, indicates that the penetrance varies with melanoma population incidence rates. Thus, the same factors that affect population incidence of melanoma may also mediate CDKN2A penetrance.

Trends for in situ and invasive melanoma in Queensland, Australia, 1982-2002

Objectives Queensland, the north-eastern state of Australia, has the highest incidence of melanoma in the world. Control measures started earlier here than probably anywhere else in the world; early detection programmes started in the 1960s and primary prevention in the 1980s. Data from the population-based Queensland Cancer Registry therefore provide an internationally unique data source with which to assess trends for in situ and invasive melanomas and to consider the implications for early detection and primary prevention. Methods We used Poisson regression to estimate the annual percentage change in rates across 21 years of incidence data for in situ and invasive lesions, stratified by age and sex. Joinpoint analyses were used to assess whether there had been a statistically significant change in the trends. Results In situ melanomas increased by 10.4% (95% CI: 10.1%, 11.1%) per year among males and 8.4% (7.9%, 8.9%) per year among females. The incidence of invasive lesions also increased, but not as quickly; males 2.6% (2.4%, 2.8%), females 1.2% (0.9%, 1.5%). Valid data on thickness was only available for 1991 to 2002 and for this period thin-invasive lesions were increasing faster than thick-invasive lesions (for example, among males: thin 3.8%, thick 2.0%). We found some suggestive evidence of lower proportionate increase for the most recent years for both in-situ and invasive lesions, but this did not achieve statistical significance. Among people younger than 35 years, the incidence of invasive melanoma was stable and there was a suggestion of a birth cohort effect from about 1958. Mortality rates were stable across all ages, and there was a suggestion of decreasing rates among young women, although this did not achieve statistical significance. Conclusion Age-standardised incidence is continuing to increase and this, in combination with a shift to proportionately more in situ lesions, suggests that the stabilisation of mortality rates is due, in large part, to earlier detection. For primary prevention, after a substantial period of sustained effort in Queensland, there is some suggestive, but not definitive, evidence that progress is being made. Incidence rates are stabilising in those younger than 35 years and the proportionate increase for both in situ and invasive lesions appears to be lower for the most recent period compared with previous periods. However, even taking the most favourable view of these trends, primary prevention is unlikely to lead to decreases in the overall incidence rate of melanoma for at least another 20 years. Consequently, the challenge for primary prevention programmes will be to maintain momentum over the long term. If this can be achieved, the eventual public-health benefits are likely to be substantial.

Live Attenuated Chimeric Yellow Fever Dengue Type 2 (Chimeri Vax -DEN2) Vaccine: Phase 1 clinical trial for safety and immunogenicity

A randomized double-blind Phase I Trial was conducted to evaluate safety, tolerability, and immunogenicity of a yellow fever (YF)-dengue 2 (DEN2) chimera (ChimeriVax™-DEN2) in comparison to that of YF vaccine (YF-VAX®). Forty-two healthy YF naïve adults randomly received a single dose of either ChimeriVax™-DEN2 (high dose, 5 log plaque forming units [PFU] or low dose, 3 log PFU) or YF-VAXâ by the subcutaneous route (SC). To determine the effect of YF pre-immunity on the ChimeriVaxTM-DEN2 vaccine, 14 subjects previously vaccinated against YF received a high dose of ChimeriVax™-DEN2 as an open-label vaccine. Most adverse events were similar to YF-VAX® and of mild to moderate intensity, with no serious side-effects. One hundred percent and 92.3% of YF naïve subjects inoculated with 5.0 and 3.0 log10 PFU of ChimeriVaxTM-DEN2, respectively, seroconverted to wt DEN2 (strain 16681); 92% of subjects inoculated with YF-VAX® seroconverted to YF 17D virus but none of YF naïve subjects inoculated with ChimeriVax-DEN2 seroconverted to YF 17D virus. Low seroconversion rates to heterologous DEN serotypes 1, 3, and 4 were observed in YF naïve subjects inoculated with either ChimeriVax™-DEN2 or YF-VAX®. In contrast, 100% of YF immune subjects inoculated with ChimeriVax™-DEN2 seroconverted to all 4 DEN serotypes. Surprisingly, levels of neutralizing antibodies to DEN 1, 2, and 3 viruses in YF immune subjects persisted after 1 year. These data demonstrated that 1) the safety and immunogenicity profile of the ChimeriVax™-DEN2 vaccine is consistent with that of YF-VAX®, and 2) pre-immunity to YF virus does not interfere with ChimeriVaxTM-DEN2 immunization, but induces a long lasting and cross neutralizing antibody response to all 4 DEN serotypes. The latter observation can have practical implications toward development of a dengue vaccine.

Trends in the incidence, severity, and short-term outcome of stroke in Perth, Western Australia

Background and Purpose-This report describes trends in the key indices of cerebrovascular disease over 6 years from the end of the 1980s in a geographically defined segment of the city of Perth, Western Australia. Methods-Identical methods were used to find and assess all cases of suspected stroke in a population of approximately 134 000 residents in a triangular area of the northern suburbs of Perth. Case fatality was measured as vital status at 28 days after the onset of symptoms. Data for first-ever strokes and for all strokes for equivalent periods of 12 months in 1989-1990 and 1995-1996 were compared by age-standardized rates and proportions and Poisson regression. Results-There were 355 strokes in 328 patients and 251 first-ever strokes (71%) for 1989-1990 and 290 events in 281 patients and 213 first-ever strokes (73%) for 1995-1996. In Poisson models including age and period, overall trends in the incidence of both first-ever strokes (rate ratio = 0.75; 95% confidence limits, 0.63, 0.90) and all strokes (rate ratio = 0.73; 95% confidence limits, 0.62, 0.85) were obviously significant, but only the changes in men were independently significant. Case fatality did not change, and the balance between hemorrhagic and occlusive strokes in 1995-1996 was almost indistinguishable from that observed in 1989-1990. Conclusions-Our results, which are the only longitudinal population-based data available for Australia for key indices of stroke, suggest that it is a change in the frequency of stroke, rather than its outcome, that is chiefly responsible nationally for the fall in mortality from cerebrovascular disease.

Estimating HIV incidence rates from age prevalence data in epidemic situations

We present a method of estimating HIV incidence rates in epidemic situations from data on age-specific prevalence and changes in the overall prevalence over time. The method is applied to women attending antenatal clinics in Hlabisa, a rural district of KwaZulu/Natal, South Africa, where transmission of HIV is overwhelmingly through heterosexual contact. A model which gives age-specific prevalence rates in the presence of a progressing epidemic is fitted to prevalence data for 1998 using maximum likelihood methods and used to derive the age-specific incidence. Error estimates are obtained using a Monte Carlo procedure. Although the method is quite general some simplifying assumptions are made concerning the form of the risk function and sensitivity analyses are performed to explore the importance of these assumptions. The analysis shows that in 1998 the annual incidence of infection per susceptible woman increased from 5.4 per cent (3.3-8.5 per cent; here and elsewhere ranges give 95 per cent confidence limits) at age 15 years to 24.5 per cent (20.6-29.1 per cent) at age 22 years and declined to 1.3 per cent (0.5-2.9 per cent) at age 50 years; standardized to a uniform age distribution, the overall incidence per susceptible woman aged 15 to 59 was 11.4 per cent (10.0-13.1 per cent); per women in the population it was 8.4 per cent (7.3-9.5 per cent). Standardized to the age distribution of the female population the average incidence per woman was 9.6 per cent (8.4-11.0 per cent); standardized to the age distribution of women attending antenatal clinics, it was 11.3 per cent (9.8-13.3 per cent). The estimated incidence depends on the values used for the epidemic growth rate and the AIDS related mortality. To ensure that, for this population, errors in these two parameters change the age specific estimates of the annual incidence by less than the standard deviation of the estimates of the age specific incidence, the AIDS related mortality should be known to within +/-50 per cent and the epidemic growth rate to within +/-25 per cent, both of which conditions are met. In the absence of cohort studies to measure the incidence of HIV infection directly, useful estimates of the age-specific incidence can be obtained from cross-sectional, age-specific prevalence data and repeat cross-sectional data on the overall prevalence of HIV infection. Several assumptions were made because of the lack of data but sensitivity analyses show that they are unlikely to affect the overall estimates significantly. These estimates are important in assessing the magnitude of the public health problem, for designing vaccine trials and for evaluating the impact of interventions. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.