Nonstationary brand variables in category management: A cointegration perspective

Category-management models serve to assist in the development of plans for pricing and promotions of individual brands. Techniques to solve the models can have problems of accuracy and interpretability because they are susceptible to spurious regression problems due to nonstationary time-series data. Improperly stated nonstationary systems can reduce the accuracy of the forecasts and undermine the interpretation of the results. This is problematic because recent studies indicate that sales are often a nonstationary time-series. Newly developed correction techniques can account for nonstationarity by incorporating error-correction terms into the model when using a Bayesian Vector Error-Correction Model. The benefit of using such a technique is that shocks to control variates can be separated into permanent and temporary effects and allow cointegration of series for analysis purposes. Analysis of a brand data set indicates that this is important even at the brand level. Thus, additional information is generated that allows a decision maker to examine controllable variables in terms of whether they influence sales over a short or long duration. Only products that are nonstationary in sales volume can be manipulated for long-term profit gain, and promotions must be cointegrated with brand sales volume. The brand data set is used to explore the capabilities and interpretation of cointegration.

Screening for leprosy in immigrants: A decision analysis model

Almost all leprosy cases reported in industrialized countries occur amongst immigrants or refugees from developing countries where leprosy continues to be an important health issue. Screening for leprosy is an important question for governments in countries with immigration and refugee programmes. A decision analysis framework is used to evaluate leprosy screening. The analysis uses a set of criteria and parameters regarding leprosy screening, and available data to estimate the number of cases which would be detected by a leprosy screening programme of immigrants from countries with different leprosy prevalences, compared with a policy of waiting for immigrants who develop symptomatic clinical diseases to present for health care. In a cohort of 100,000 immigrants from high leprosy prevalence regions (3.6/10,000), screening would detect 32 of the 42 cases which would arise in the destination country over the 14 years after migration; from medium prevalence areas (0.7/10,000) 6.3 of the total 8.1 cases would be detected, and from low prevalence regions (0.2/10,600) 1.8 of 2.3 cases. Using Australian data, the migrant mix would produce 74 leprosy cases from 10 years intake; screening would detect 54, and 19 would be diagnosed subsequently after migration. Screening would only produce significant case-yield amongst immigrants from regions or social groups with high leprosy prevalence. Since the number of immigrants to Australia from countries of higher endemnicity is not large routine leprosy screening would have a small impact on case incidence.

Referral to rehabilitation following traumatic brain injury: practitioners and the process of decision-making

The study aimed to examine the factors influencing referral to rehabilitation following traumatic brain injury (TBI) by using social problems theory as a conceptual model to focus on practitioners and the process of decision-making in two Australian hospitals. The research design involved semi-structured interviews with 18 practitioners and observations of 10 team meetings, and was part of a larger study on factors influencing referral to rehabilitation in the same settings. Analysis revealed that referral decisions were influenced primarily by practitioners' selection and their interpretation of clinical and non-clinical patient factors. Further, practitioners generally considered patient factors concurrently during an ongoing process of decision-making, with the combinations and interactions of these factors forming the basis for interpretations of problems and referral justifications. Key patient factors considered in referral decisions included functional and tracheostomy status, time since injury, age, family, place of residence and Indigenous status. However, rate and extent of progress, recovery potential, safety and burden of care, potential for independence and capacity to cope were five interpretative themes, which emerged as the justifications for referral decisions. The subsequent negotiation of referral based on patient factors was in turn shaped by the involvement of practitioners. While multi-disciplinary processes of decision-making were the norm, allied health professionals occupied a central role in referral to rehabilitation, and involvement of medical, nursing and allied health practitioners varied. Finally, the organizational pressures and resource constraints, combined with practitioners' assimilation of the broader efficiency agenda were central factors shaping referral. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Information giving and decision-making in patients with advanced cancer: A systematic review

Patients with advanced, non-curable cancer face difficult decisions on further treatment, where a small increase in survival time must be balanced against: the toxicity of the treatment. If patients want to be involved in these decisions, in keeping with current notions of autonomy and empowerment, they also require to be adequately informed both on the treatments proposed and on their own disease status and prognosis. A systematic review was performed on decision-making and information provision in patients with advanced cancer. Studies of interventions to improve information giving and encourage participation in decision-making were reviewed, including both randomised controlled trials and uncontrolled studies. Almost all patients expressed a desire for full information, but only about two-thirds wished to participate actively in decision-making. Higher educational level, younger age and female sex were predictive of a desire to participate in decision-making. Active decision-making was more common in patients with certain cancers (e.g. breast) than others (e.g. prostate). A number of simple interventions including question prompt sheets, audio-taping of consultations and patient decision aids have been shown to facilitate such involvement. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

It's all very well, in theory: Theoretical perspectives and their applications in contemporary pedagogical research

Current debates about educational theory are concerned with the relationship between knowledge and power and thereby issues such as who possesses a truth and how have they arrived at it, what questions are important to ask, and how should they best be answered. As such, these debates revolve around questions of preferred, appropriate, and useful theoretical perspectives. This paper overviews the key theoretical perspectives that are currently used in physical education pedagogy research and considers how these inform the questions we ask and shapes the conduct of research. It also addresses what is contested with respect to these perspectives. The paper concludes with some cautions about allegiances to and use of theories in line with concerns for the applicability of educational research to pressing social issues.

A unified and complete construction of all finite dimensional irreducible representations of gl(2|2)

Representations of the non-semisimple superalgebra gl(2/2) in the standard basis are investigated by means of the vector coherent state method and boson-fermion realization. All finite-dimensional irreducible typical and atypical representations and lowest weight (indecomposable) Kac modules of gl(2/2) are constructed explicity through the explicit construction of all gl(2) circle plus gl(2) particle states (multiplets) in terms of boson and fermion creation operators in the super-Fock space. This gives a unified and complete treatment of finite-dimensional representations of gl(2/2) in explicit form, essential for the construction of primary fields of the corresponding current superalgebra at arbitrary level.

Preliminary experiences with a single-patient trials service in general practice

Objective: To pilot a single-patient trials (SPTs) service in general practice, designed to improve decision-making about long-term medications for chronic conditions. Design: 12-week within-patient, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, crossover comparison of ibuprofen with paracetamol for osteoarthritis, involving three pairs of two-week treatment periods for each participating patient. Setting and patients: Patients attending an academic general practice with a clinical diagnosis of osteoarthritis, with pain of at least a month's duration severe enough to warrant consideration of long-term non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) use. Main outcome measures: Pain and stiffness; measures of overall arthritis compared with previous fortnight; preference for NSAID at the end of each two-week treatment period; use of escape analgesia; side effects; and management changes as a result of the SPTs. Results: Eight of 14 patients completed SPTs. One was a clear responder to NSAIDs, five were non-responders, and two were indefinite. Of the five who were using NSAIDs before the SPT, two continued and three ceased using them. Clinically useful information assisted decision-making for all eight participants. Medication management changed for six. Conclusions: Single-patient trials can be successfully implemented in general practice and might be a valuable method for GPs to identify patients who respond to medication for chronic stable conditions such as osteoarthritis, in which individual response to medication is variable.

Progress in integrated assessment and modelling

Environmental processes have been modelled for decades. However. the need for integrated assessment and modeling (IAM) has,town as the extent and severity of environmental problems in the 21st Century worsens. The scale of IAM is not restricted to the global level as in climate change models, but includes local and regional models of environmental problems. This paper discusses various definitions of IAM and identifies five different types of integration that Lire needed for the effective solution of environmental problems. The future is then depicted in the form of two brief scenarios: one optimistic and one pessimistic. The current state of IAM is then briefly reviewed. The issues of complexity and validation in IAM are recognised as more complex than in traditional disciplinary approaches. Communication is identified as a central issue both internally among team members and externally with decision-makers. stakeholders and other scientists. Finally it is concluded that the process of integrated assessment and modelling is considered as important as the product for any particular project. By learning to work together and recognise the contribution of all team members and participants, it is believed that we will have a strong scientific and social basis to address the environmental problems of the 21st Century. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

ERP 'old/new' effects: memory strength and decisional factor(s)

Event-related potentials (ERPs) were recorded while subjects made old/new recognition judgments on new unstudied words and old words which had been presented at study either once ('weak') or three times ('strong'). The probability of an 'old' response was significantly higher for strong than weak words and significantly higher for weak than new words. Comparisons were made initially between ERPs to new, weak and strong words, and subsequently between ERPs associated with six strength-by-response conditions. The N400 component was found to be modulated by memory trace strength in a graded manner. Its amplitude was most negative in new word ERPs and most positive in strong word ERPs. This 'N400 strength effect' was largest at the left parietal electrode (in ear-referenced ERPs). The amplitude of the late positive complex (LPC) effect was sensitive to decision accuracy (and perhaps confidence). Its amplitude was larger in ERPs evoked by words attracting correct versus incorrect recognition decisions. The LPC effect had a left > right, centro-parietal scalp topography (in ear-referenced ERPs). Hence, whereas, the majority of previous ERP studies of episodic recognition have interpreted results from the perspective of dual-process models, we provide alternative interpretations of N400 and LPC old/new effects in terms of memory strength and decisional factor(s). (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Health for all beyond 2000: the demise of the Alma-Ata Declaration and primary health care in developing countries

Access to basic health services was affirmed as a fundamental human right in the Declaration of Alma-Ata in 1978. The model formally adopted for providing healthcare services was primary health care (PHC), which involved universal, community-based preventive and curative services, with substantial community involvement. PHC,did not achieve its goals for several reasons, including the refusal of experts and politicians in developed countries to accept the principle that communities should plan and implement their own heathcare services. Changes in economic philosophy led to the replacement of PHC by Health Sector Reform, based on market forces and the economic benefits of better health. It is time to abandon economic ideology and determine the methods that will provide access to basic healthcare services for all people.