Social inequalities in male mortality, and in male mortality from smoking: indirect estimation from national death rates in England and Wales, Poland, and North America

Background There are substantial social inequalities in adult male mortality in many countries. Smoking is often more prevalent among men of lower social class, education, or income. The contribution of smoking to these social inequalities in mortality remains uncertain. Methods The contribution of smoking to adult mortality in a population can be estimated indirectly from disease-specific death rates in that population (using absolute lung cancer rates to indicate proportions due to smoking of mortality from certain other diseases). We applied these methods to 1996 death rates at ages 35-69 years in men in three different social strata in four countries, based on a total of 0.6 million deaths. The highest and lowest social strata were based on social class (professional vs unskilled manual) in England and Wales, neighbourhood income (top vs bottom quintile) in urban Canada, and completed years of education (more than vs less than 12 years) in the USA and Poland. Results In each country, there was about a two-fold difference between the highest and the lowest social strata in overall risks of dying among men aged 35-69 years (England and Wales 21% vs 43%, USA 20% vs 37%, Canada 21% vs 34%, Poland 26% vs 50%: four-country mean 22% vs 41%, four-country mean absolute difference 19%). More than half of this difference in mortality between the top and bottom social strata involved differences in risks of being killed at age 35-69 years by smoking (England and Wales 4% vs 19%, USA 4% vs 15%, Canada 6% vs 13%, Poland 5% vs 22%: four-country mean 5% vs 17%, four-country mean absolute difference 12%). Smoking-attributed mortality accounted for nearly half of total male mortality in the lowest social stratum of each country. Conclusion In these populations, most, but not all, of the substantial social inequalities in adult male mortality during the 1990s were due to the effects of smoking. Widespread cessation of smoking could eventually halve the absolute differences between these social strata in the risk of premature death.

Extinction times for a birth-death process with two phases

Many populations have a negative impact on their habitat or upon other species in the environment if their numbers become too large. For this reason they are often subjected to some form of control. One common control regime is the reduction regime: when the population reaches a certain threshold it is controlled (for example culled) until it falls below a lower predefined level. The natural model for such a controlled population is a birth-death process with two phases, the phase determining which of two distinct sets of birth and death rates governs the process. We present formulae for the probability of extinction and the expected time to extinction, and discuss several applications. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Secondary prevention of renal and cardiovascular disease: Results of a renal and cardiovascular treatment program in an Australian aboriginal community

Australian Aborigines are experiencing an epidemic of renal and cardiovascular disease. In late 1995 we introduced a treatment program into the Tiwi community, which has a three- to fivefold increase in death rates and a recent annual incidence of treated ESRD of 2760 per million. Eligible for treatment were people with hypertension, diabetics with micro or overt albuminuria, and all people with overt albuminuria. Treatment centered around use of perindopril (Coversyl, Servier), with other agents added to reach BP goals; attempts to control glucose and lipid levels; and health education. Thirty percent of the adult population, or 267 people, were enrolled, with a mean follow up of 3.39 yr. Clinical parameters were followed every 6 mo, and rates of terminal endpoints were compared with those of 327 historical controls matched for baseline disease severity, followed in the pretreatment program era. There was a dramatic reduction in BP in the treatment group, which was sustained through 3 yr of treatment. Albuminuria and GFR stabilized or improved. Rates of natural deaths were reduced by an estimated 50% (P = 0.012); renal deaths were reduced by 57% (P = 0.038); and nonrenal deaths by 46% (P = 0.085). Survival benefit was suggested at all levels of overt albuminuria, and regardless of diabetes status, baseline BP, or prior administration of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEI). No significant benefit was apparent among people without overt albuminuria, nor among those with GFR less than 60 ml/min. An estimated 13 renal deaths and 10 nonrenal deaths were prevented, with the number-needed-to-treat to avoid one terminal event of only 11.6. Falling deaths and renal failure in the whole community support these estimates. The program was extremely cost-effective. Programs like this should be introduced to all high-risk communities as a matter of urgency.

Evaluation of the impact of natural enemies on Plutella xylostella L. (Lepidoptera: Yponomeutidae) populations on commercial Brassica farms

1 Accurate assessment of the impact of natural enemies on pest populations is fundamental to the design of robust integrated pest management programmes. In most situations, diseases, predators and parasitoids act contemporaneously on insect pest populations and the impact of individual natural enemies, or specific groups of natural enemies, is difficult to interpret. These problems are exacerbated in agro-ecosystems that are frequently disrupted by the application of insecticides. 2 A combination of life-table and natural enemy exclusion techniques was utilized to develop a method for the assessment of the impact of endemic natural enemies on Plutella xylostella populations on commercial Brassica farms. 3 At two of the experimental sites, natural enemies had no impact on P. xylostella survival, at two other sites, natural enemy impact was low but, at a fifth site, natural enemies drastically reduced the P. xylostella population. 4 The calculation of marginal death rates and associated k-values allowed the comparison of mortality factors between experimental sites, and indicated that larval disappearance was consistently the most important mortality factor, followed by egg disappearance, larval parasitism and pupal parasitism. The appropriateness of the methods and assumptions made to calculate the marginal death rates are discussed. 5 The technique represents a robust and easily repeatable method for the analysis of the activity of natural enemies of P. xylostella, which could be adapted for the study of other phytophagous pests.

Serious adverse events in the Australian National Evaluation of Pharmacotherapies for Opioid Dependence (NEPOD)

Aims The study estimated serious adverse event (SAE) rates among entrants to pharmacotherapies for opioid dependence, during treatment and after leaving treatment. Design A longitudinal study based on data from 12 trials included in the Australian National Evaluation of Pharmacotherapies for Opioid Dependence (NEPOD). Participants and settings A total of 1.244 heroin users and methadone patients treated in hospital, community and GP settings. Intervention Six trials included detoxification; all included treatment with methadone, buprenorphine, levo-alpha-acetyl-methadol (LAAM) or naltrexone. Findings During 394 person-years of observation, 79 SAEs of 28 types were recorded. Naltrexone participants experienced 39 overdoses per 100 person-years after leaving treatment (44% occurred within 2 weeks after stopping naltrexone). This was eight times the rate recorded among participants who left agonist treatment. Rates of all other SAEs were similar during treatment versus out of treatment, for both naltrexone-treated and agonist-treated participants. Five deaths occurred, all among participants who had left treatment, at a rate of six per 100 person-years. Total SAE rates during naltrexone and agonist treatments were similar (20, 14 per 100 person-years, respectively). Total SAE and death rates observed among participants who had left treatment were three and 19 times the corresponding rates during treatment. Conclusions Individuals who leave pharmacotherapies for opioid dependence experience higher overdose and death rates compared with those in treatment. This may be due partly to a participant self-selection effect rather than entirely to pharmacotherapy being protective. Clinicians should alert naltrexone treatment patients in particular about heroin overdose risks. Duty of care may extend beyond cessation of dosing.

Do socioeconomic gradients in women's health widen over time and with age

A population-based study was conducted to investigate changes over time in women's well-being and health service use by socio-cconomic status and whether these varied by age. Data from 12,328 mid-age women (aged 45-50 years in 1996) and 10,430 older women (aged 70-75 years) from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health were analysed. The main outcome measures were changes in the eight dimensions of the Short Form General Health Survey (SF-36) adjusted for baseline scores, lifestyle and behavioural factors; health care utilisation at Survey 2; and rate of deaths (older cohort only). Cross-sectional analyses showed clear socioeconomic differentials in well-being for both cohorts. Differential changes in health across tertiles of socioeconomic status (SES) were more evident in the mid-age cohort than in the older cohort. For the mid-aged women in the low SES tertile, declines in physical functioning (adjusted mean change of -2.4, standard error (SE) 1.1) and general health perceptions (-1.5, SE 1.1) were larger than the high SES group (physical functioning -0.8 SE 1.1, general health perceptions -0.8 SE 1.2). In the older cohort, changes in SF-36 scores over time were similar for all SES groups but women in the high SES group had lower death rates than women in the low SES group (relative risk: 0.79, 95% confidence interval 0.64-0.98). Findings suggest that SES differentials in physical health seem to widen during women's mid-adult years but narrow in older age. Nevertheless, SES remains an important predictor of health, health service use and mortality in older Australian women. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of gender on risk stratification by exercise and dobutamine stress echocardiography: long-term mortality in 4234 women and 6898 men

Aims Prior research is limited with regard to the diagnostic and prognostic accuracy of commonplace cardiac imaging modalities in women. The aim of this study was to examine 5-year mortality in 4234 women and 6898 men undergoing exercise or dobutamine stress echocardiography at three hospitals. Methods and results Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate time to cardiac death in this multi-centre, observational registry. Of the 11 132 patients, women had a greater frequency of cardiac risk factors (P < 0.0001). However, men more often had a history of coronary disease including a greater frequency of echocardiographic wall motion abnormalities (P < 0.0001). During 5 years of follow-up, 103 women and 226 men died from ischaernic heart disease (P < 0.0001). Echocardiographic estimates of left ventricular function (P < 0.0001) and the extent of ischaernic watt motion abnormalities (P < 0.0001) were highly predictive of cardiac death. Risk-adjusted 5-year survival was 99.4, 97.6, and 95% for exercising women with no, single, and multi-vessel ischaemia (P < 0.0001). For women undergoing dobutamine stress, 5-year survival was 95, 89, and 86.6% for those with 0, 1, and 2-3 vessel ischaemia (P < 0.0001). Exercising men had a 2.0-fold higher risk at every level of worsening ischaemia (P < 0.0001). Significantly worsening cardiac survival was noted for the 1568 men undergoing dobutamine stress echocardiography (P < 0.0001); no ischaemia was associated with 92% 5-year survival as compared with death rates of &GE; 16% for men with ischaemia on dobutamine stress echocardiography (P < 0.0001). Conclusion Echocardiographic measures of inducible wall motion abnormalities and global and regional left ventricutar function are highly predictive of long-term outcome for women and men alike.

Diabetes as a tracer condition in international benchmarking of health systems

OBJECTIVE - To assess the performance of health systems using diabetes as a tracer condition. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - We generated a measure of case-fatality among young people with diabetes Using the mortalily-to-incidence ratio (M/I ratio) for 29 industrialized countries using published data on diabetes incidence and mortality. Standardized incidence rates for ages 0-14 years were extracted from the World Health Organization DiaMond Study for the period 1990-1994; data on death from diabetes for ages 0-39 years were obtained from the World Health Organization Mortality database and converted into age-standardized death rates for the period 1994-1998, using the European standard population. RESULTS - The MA ratio varied > 10-fold. These relative differences appear similar to those observed in cohort studies of mortality among young people with type I diabetes in five countries. A sensitivity analysis showed that using plausible assumptions about potential overestimation of diabetes as a cause of death and underestimation of incidence rates in the U.S. yields an M/I ratio that would still be twice as high as in the U.K. or Canada. CONCLUSIONS - The M/I ratio for diabetes provides a means of differentiating countries on quality of care for people with diabetes. It is solely an indicator of potential problems, a basis for Stimulating more detailed assessments of whether such problems exist, and what can be done to address them.

Is mortality from heart failure increasing in Australia? An analysis of official data on mortality for 1997-2003

Objective To assess whether trends in mortality from heart failure(HF) in Australia are due to a change in awareness of the condition or real changes in its epidemiology. Methods We carried out a retrospective analysis of official data on national mortality data between 1997 and 2003. A death was attributed to HF if the death certificate mentioned HF as either the underlying cause of death (UCD) or among the contributory factors. Findings From a total of 907 242 deaths, heart failure was coded as the UCD for 29 341 (3.2%) and was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate in 135 268 (14.9%). Between 1997 and 2003, there were decreases in the absolute numbers of deaths and in the age-specific and age-standardized mortality rates for HF either as UCD or mentioned anywhere for both sexes. HF was mentioned for 24.6% and 17.8% of deaths attributed to ischaemic heart disease and circulatory disease, respectively, and these proportions remained unchanged over the period of study. In addition, HF as UCD accounted for 8.3% of deaths attributed to circulatory disease and this did not change materially from 1997 to 2003. Conclusion The decline in mortality from HF measured as either number of deaths or rate probably reflects a real change in the epidemiology of HF. Population-based studies are required to determine accurately the contributions of changes in incidence, survival and demographic factors to the evolving epidemiology of HF.

Antitumor activity of 3-ingenyl angelate: Plasma membrane and mitochondrial disruption and necrotic cell death

Options for skin cancer treatment currently include surgery, radiotherapy, topical chemotherapy, cryosurgery, curettage, and electrodes-sication. Although effective, surgery is costly and unsuitable for certain patients. Radiotherapy can leave a poor cosmetic effect, and current chemotherapy is limited by low cure rates and extended treatment schedules. Here, we describe the preclinical activity of a novel topical chemotherapeutic agent for the treatment of skin cancer, 3-ingenyl angelate (PEP005), a hydrophobic diterpene ester isolated from the plant Euphorbia peplus. Three daily topical applications of 42 nmol (18 mug) of PEP005 cured a series of s.c. mouse tumors (B16 melanoma, LK2 UV-induced squamous cell carcinoma, and Lewis lung carcinoma; it = >14 tumors/group) and human tumors (DO4 melanoma, HeLa cervical carcinoma, and PC3 and DU145 prostate carcinoma; it = >4 tumors/group) previously established (5-10 mm(3)) on C57BL/6 or Fox1(nu) mice. The treatment produced a mild, short-term erythema and eschar formation but, ultimately, resulted in excellent skin cosmesis. The LD90 for PEP005 for a panel of tumor cell lines was 180-220 muM. Electron microscopy showed that treatment with PEP005 both ill vitro (230 tot) and ill vivo (42 nmol) rapidly caused swelling of mitochondria and cell death by primary necrosis. Cr-51 release, uptake of propidium iodide, and staining with the mitochondria dye JC1, revealed that PEP005 (230 muM) treatment of tumor cells ill vitro resulted in a rapid plasma membrane perturbation and loss of mitochondrial membrane potential. PEP005 thus emerges as a new topical anti-skin cancer agent that has a novel mode of action involving plasma membrane and mitochondrial disruption and primary necrosis, ultimately resulting in an excellent cosmetic outcome.

Extinction times for a general birth, death and catastrophe process

The birth, death and catastrophe process is an extension of the birth-death process that incorporates the possibility of reductions in population of arbitrary size. We will consider a general form of this model in which the transition rates are allowed to depend on the current population size in an arbitrary manner. The linear case, where the transition rates are proportional to current population size, has been studied extensively. In particular, extinction probabilities, the expected time to extinction, and the distribution of the population size conditional on nonextinction (the quasi-stationary distribution) have all been evaluated explicitly. However, whilst these characteristics are of interest in the modelling and management of populations, processes with linear rate coefficients represent only a very limited class of models. We address this limitation by allowing for a wider range of catastrophic events. Despite this generalisation, explicit expressions can still be found for the expected extinction times.

Subgeometric rates of convergence for a class of continuous-time Markov process

Let (Phi(t))(t is an element of R+) be a Harris ergodic continuous-time Markov process on a general state space, with invariant probability measure pi. We investigate the rates of convergence of the transition function P-t(x, (.)) to pi; specifically, we find conditions under which r(t) vertical bar vertical bar P-t (x, (.)) - pi vertical bar vertical bar -> 0 as t -> infinity, for suitable subgeometric rate functions r(t), where vertical bar vertical bar - vertical bar vertical bar denotes the usual total variation norm for a signed measure. We derive sufficient conditions for the convergence to hold, in terms of the existence of suitable points on which the first hitting time moments are bounded. In particular, for stochastically ordered Markov processes, explicit bounds on subgeometric rates of convergence are obtained. These results are illustrated in several examples.