Stochastic dynamic programming for election timing: A game theory approach

In this paper, we consider dynamic programming for the election timing in the majoritarian parliamentary system such as in Australia, where the government has a constitutional right to call an early election. This right can give the government an advantage to remain in power for as long as possible by calling an election, when its popularity is high. On the other hand, the opposition's natural objective is to gain power, and it will apply controls termed as "boosts" to reduce the chance of the government being re-elected by introducing policy and economic responses. In this paper, we explore equilibrium solutions to the government, and the opposition strategies in a political game using stochastic dynamic programming. Results are given in terms of the expected remaining life in power, call and boost probabilities at each time at any level of popularity.

Quantifying the complexity of relative clause and cleft sentences

Explanations of the difficulty of relative-clause sentences implicate complexity but the measurement of complexity remains controversial. Four experiments investigated how far relational complexity (RC) theory, that has been found valid for cognitive development and human reasoning, accounts for the difficulty of 16 types of English, object- and subject-extracted relative-clause constructions. RC corresponds to the number of nouns assigned to thematic roles in the same decision. Complexity estimates based on RC and those based on maximal integration cost (MIC) were strongly correlated and accounted for similar variance in sentence difficulty (subjective ratings, comprehension accuracy, reading times). Consistent with RC theory, sentences that required more than 4 role assignments in the same decision were extremely difficult for many participants. Performance on nonlinguistic relational tasks predicted comprehension of object-extracted sentences, before and after controlling for subject-extractions. Working memory tasks predicted comprehension of object-extractions before controlling for subjectextractions. The studies extend the RC approach to a linguistic domain.