91 resultados para Database search Evidential value Bayesian decision theory Influence diagrams
em University of Queensland eSpace - Australia
Resumo:
A survey study of twenty-two Australian CEOs and their subordinates assessed relationships between Australian leader motives, Australian value based leader behaviour, subordinate tall poppy attitudes and subordinate commitment, effectiveness, motivation and satisfaction (CEMS). On the whole, the results showed general support for value based leadership processes. Subsequent regression analyses of the second main component of Value Based Leadership Theory, value based leader behaviour, revealed that the collectivistic, inspirational, integrity and visionary behaviour sub-scales of the construct were positively related with subordinate CEMS. Although the hypothesis that subordinate tall poppy attitudes would moderate value based leadership processes was not clearly supported, subsequent regression analyses found that subordinate tall poppy attitudes were negatively related with perceptions of value based leader behaviour and CEMS. These findings suggest complex relationships between the three constructs, and the proposed model for the Australian context is accordingly amended. Overall, the research supports the need to consider cultural-specific attitudes in management development.
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1. A model of the population dynamics of Banksia ornata was developed, using stochastic dynamic programming (a state-dependent decision-making tool), to determine optimal fire management strategies that incorporate trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and fuel reduction. 2. The modelled population of B. ornata was described by its age and density, and was exposed to the risk of unplanned fires and stochastic variation in germination success. 3. For a given population in each year, three management strategies were considered: (i) lighting a prescribed fire; (ii) controlling the incidence of unplanned fire; (iii) doing nothing. 4. The optimal management strategy depended on the state of the B. ornata population, with the time since the last fire (age of the population) being the most important variable. Lighting a prescribed fire at an age of less than 30 years was only optimal when the density of seedlings after a fire was low (< 100 plants ha(-1)) or when there were benefits of maintaining a low fuel load by using more frequent fire. 5. Because the cost of management was assumed to be negligible (relative to the value of the persistence of the population), the do-nothing option was never the optimal strategy, although lighting prescribed fires had only marginal benefits when the mean interval between unplanned fires was less than 20-30 years.
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The role of gender differences in the consumption of goods and services is well established in many areas of consumer behaviour and computer use and yet there has been only limited research into such gender-based differences in the information search behaviour of Internet users. This paper reports the gender-based results of an exploratory study of consumer external information search of the web. The study investigated consumer characteristics, web search behaviour, and the post web search outcomes of purchase decision status and consumer judgements of search usefulness and satisfaction. Gender-based differences are reported in all three areas. Consideration of the results suggests they are issues which could inhibit the adoption of online purchasing by female web users. The implications of these results are discussed and a future research agenda proposed.
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1. Establishing biological control agents in the field is a major step in any classical biocontrol programme, yet there are few general guidelines to help the practitioner decide what factors might enhance the establishment of such agents. 2. A stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) approach, linked to a metapopulation model, was used to find optimal release strategies (number and size of releases), given constraints on time and the number of biocontrol agents available. By modelling within a decision-making framework we derived rules of thumb that will enable biocontrol workers to choose between management options, depending on the current state of the system. 3. When there are few well-established sites, making a few large releases is the optimal strategy. For other states of the system, the optimal strategy ranges from a few large releases, through a mixed strategy (a variety of release sizes), to many small releases, as the probability of establishment of smaller inocula increases. 4. Given that the probability of establishment is rarely a known entity, we also strongly recommend a mixed strategy in the early stages of a release programme, to accelerate learning and improve the chances of finding the optimal approach.
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We report a further characterization of the genomic region containing the soybean supernodulation gene NTS-1. We performed a search for new markers linked to NTS-1 by combining DNA amplification fingerprinting (DAF) and bulked segregant analysis (BSA). The search resulted in one cloned polymorphism (B44-456) linked in trans, 8.5cM from the locus. Southern hybridization showed duplication of the B44-456 sequence in the soybean genome. Additionally, a DNA database search revealed one Arabidopsis thaliana genomic clone from chromosome I possessing 62% homology to the B44-456 marker. A relatively low number of polymorphisms were identified by several PCR marker technologies for this soybean genomic region, providing an additional support for its highly conserved and/or duplicated organization.
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We present a novel maximum-likelihood-based algorithm for estimating the distribution of alignment scores from the scores of unrelated sequences in a database search. Using a new method for measuring the accuracy of p-values, we show that our maximum-likelihood-based algorithm is more accurate than existing regression-based and lookup table methods. We explore a more sophisticated way of modeling and estimating the score distributions (using a two-component mixture model and expectation maximization), but conclude that this does not improve significantly over simply ignoring scores with small E-values during estimation. Finally, we measure the classification accuracy of p-values estimated in different ways and observe that inaccurate p-values can, somewhat paradoxically, lead to higher classification accuracy. We explain this paradox and argue that statistical accuracy, not classification accuracy, should be the primary criterion in comparisons of similarity search methods that return p-values that adjust for target sequence length.
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A decision theory framework can be a powerful technique to derive optimal management decisions for endangered species. We built a spatially realistic stochastic metapopulation model for the Mount Lofty Ranges Southern Emu-wren (Stipiturus malachurus intermedius), a critically endangered Australian bird. Using diserete-time Markov,chains to describe the dynamics of a metapopulation and stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) to find optimal solutions, we evaluated the following different management decisions: enlarging existing patches, linking patches via corridors, and creating a new patch. This is the first application of SDP to optimal landscape reconstruction and one of the few times that landscape reconstruction dynamics have been integrated with population dynamics. SDP is a powerful tool that has advantages over standard Monte Carlo simulation methods because it can give the exact optimal strategy for every landscape configuration (combination of patch areas and presence of corridors) and pattern of metapopulation occupancy, as well as a trajectory of strategies. It is useful when a sequence of management actions can be performed over a given time horizon, as is the case for many endangered species recovery programs, where only fixed amounts of resources are available in each time step. However, it is generally limited by computational constraints to rather small networks of patches. The model shows that optimal metapopulation, management decisions depend greatly on the current state of the metapopulation,. and there is no strategy that is universally the best. The extinction probability over 30 yr for the optimal state-dependent management actions is 50-80% better than no management, whereas the best fixed state-independent sets of strategies are only 30% better than no management. This highlights the advantages of using a decision theory tool to investigate conservation strategies for metapopulations. It is clear from these results that the sequence of management actions is critical, and this can only be effectively derived from stochastic dynamic programming. The model illustrates the underlying difficulty in determining simple rules of thumb for the sequence of management actions for a metapopulation. This use of a decision theory framework extends the capacity of population viability analysis (PVA) to manage threatened species.
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Like many states and territories, South Australia has a legacy of marine reserves considered to be inadequate to meet current conservation objectives. In this paper we configured exploratory marine reserve systems, using the software MARXAN, to examine how efficiently South Australia's existing marine reserves contribute to quantitative biodiversity conservation targets. Our aim was to compare marine reserve systems that retain South Australia's existing marine reserves with reserve systems that are free to either ignore or incorporate them. We devised a new interpretation of irreplaceability to identify planning units selected more than could be expected from chance alone. This is measured by comparing the observed selection frequency for an individual planning unit with a predicted selection frequency distribution. Knowing which sites make a valuable contribution to efficient marine reserve system design allows us to determine how well South Australia's existing reserves contribute to reservation goals when representation targets are set at 5, 10, 15, 20, 30 and 50% of conservation features. Existing marine reserves that tail to contribute to efficient marine reserve systems constitute 'opportunity costs'. We found that despite spanning less than 4% of South Australian state waters, locking in the existing ad hoc marine reserves presented considerable opportunity costs. Even with representation targets set at 50%, more than halt of South Australia's existing marine reserves were selected randomly or less in efficient marine reserve systems. Hence, ad hoc marine reserve systems are likely to be inefficient and may compromise effective conservation of marine biodiversity.
Resumo:
Reports of traumatic injury to the anterior lower leg muscles are scarce, with only a handful of reports of traumatic injury to the tibialis anterior. A database search of Medline, Cinhal, and Sports Discus only revealed three such cases, and they did not result from a direct sporting injury. This report documents the case of a traumatic rupture of tibialis anterior muscle in a young female Gaelic football player. It details the surgical repair and management of tibialis anterior muscle and the physiotherapy rehabilitation to full function.
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A novel member of the human relaxin subclass of the insulin superfamily was recently discovered during a genomics database search and named relaxin-3. Like human relaxin-1 and relaxin-2, relaxin-3 is predicted to consist of a two-chain structure and three disulfide bonds in a disposition identical to that of insulin. To undertake detailed biophysical and biological characterization of the peptide, its chemical synthesis was undertaken. In contrast to human relaxin-1 and relaxin-2, however, relaxin-3 could not be successfully prepared by simple combination of the individual chains, thus necessitating recourse to the use of a regioselective disulfide bond formation strategy. Solid phase synthesis of the separate, selectively S-protected A and B chains followed by their purification and the subsequent stepwise formation of each of the three disulfides led to the successful acquisition of human relaxin-3. Comprehensive chemical characterization confirmed both the correct chain orientation and the integrity of the synthetic product. Relaxin-3 was found to bind to and activate native relaxin receptors in vitro and stimulate water drinking through central relaxin receptors in vivo. Recent studies have demonstrated that relaxin-3 will bind to and activate human LGR7, but not LGR8, in vitro. Secondary structural analysis showed it to adopt a less ordered confirmation than either relaxin-1 or relaxin-2, reflecting the presence in the former of a greater percentage of nonhelical forming amino acids. NMR spectroscopy and simulated annealing calculations were used to determine the three-dimensional structure of relaxin-3 and to identify key structural differences between the human relaxins.
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With marine biodiversity conservation the primary goal for reserve planning initiatives, a site's conservation potential is typically evaluated on the basis of the biological and physical features it contains. By comparison, socio-economic information is seldom a formal consideration of the reserve system design problem and generally limited to an assessment of threats, vulnerability or compatibility with surrounding uses. This is perhaps surprising given broad recognition that the success of reserve establishment is highly dependent on widespread stakeholder and community support. Using information on the spatial distribution and intensity of commercial rock lobster catch in South Australia, we demonstrate the capacity of mathematical reserve selection procedures to integrate socio-economic and biophysical information for marine reserve system design. Analyses of trade-offs highlight the opportunities to design representative, efficient and practical marine reserve systems that minimise potential loss to commercial users. We found that the objective of minimising the areal extent of the reserve system was barely compromised by incorporating economic design constraints. With a small increase in area (< 3%) and boundary length (< 10%), the economic impact of marine reserves on the commercial rock lobster fishery was reduced by more than a third. We considered also how a reserve planner might prioritise conservation areas using information on a planning units selection frequency. We found that selection frequencies alone were not a reliable guide for the selection of marine reserve systems, but could be used with approaches such as summed irreplaceability to direct conservation effort for efficient marine reserve design.
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The notion of being sure that you have completely eradicated an invasive species is fanciful because of imperfect detection and persistent seed banks. Eradication is commonly declared either on an ad hoc basis, on notions of seed bank longevity, or on setting arbitrary thresholds of 1% or 5% confidence that the species is not present. Rather than declaring eradication at some arbitrary level of confidence, we take an economic approach in which we stop looking when the expected costs outweigh the expected benefits. We develop theory that determines the number of years of absent surveys required to minimize the net expected cost. Given detection of a species is imperfect, the optimal stopping time is a trade-off between the cost of continued surveying and the cost of escape and damage if eradication is declared too soon. A simple rule of thumb compares well to the exact optimal solution using stochastic dynamic programming. Application of the approach to the eradication programme of Helenium amarum reveals that the actual stopping time was a precautionary one given the ranges for each parameter.
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How can empirical evidence of adverse effects from exposure to noxious agents, which is often incomplete and uncertain, be used most appropriately to protect human health? We examine several important questions on the best uses of empirical evidence in regulatory risk management decision-making raised by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s science-policy concerning uncertainty and variability in human health risk assessment. In our view, the US EPA (and other agencies that have adopted similar views of risk management) can often improve decision-making by decreasing reliance on default values and assumptions, particularly when causation is uncertain. This can be achieved by more fully exploiting decision-theoretic methods and criteria that explicitly account for uncertain, possibly conflicting scientific beliefs and that can be fully studied by advocates and adversaries of a policy choice, in administrative decision-making involving risk assessment. The substitution of decision-theoretic frameworks for default assumption-driven policies also allows stakeholder attitudes toward risk to be incorporated into policy debates, so that the public and risk managers can more explicitly identify the roles of risk-aversion or other attitudes toward risk and uncertainty in policy recommendations. Decision theory provides a sound scientific way explicitly to account for new knowledge and its effects on eventual policy choices. Although these improvements can complicate regulatory analyses, simplifying default assumptions can create substantial costs to society and can prematurely cut off consideration of new scientific insights (e.g., possible beneficial health effects from exposure to sufficiently low 'hormetic' doses of some agents). In many cases, the administrative burden of applying decision-analytic methods is likely to be more than offset by improved effectiveness of regulations in achieving desired goals. Because many foreign jurisdictions adopt US EPA reasoning and methods of risk analysis, it may be especially valuable to incorporate decision-theoretic principles that transcend local differences among jurisdictions.