A framework for electricity price spike analysis with advanced data mining methods

There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.

Data partitioning for parallel spatial join processing

The cost of spatial join processing can be very high because of the large sizes of spatial objects and the computation-intensive spatial operations. While parallel processing seems a natural solution to this problem, it is not clear how spatial data can be partitioned for this purpose. Various spatial data partitioning methods are examined in this paper. A framework combining the data-partitioning techniques used by most parallel join algorithms in relational databases and the filter-and-refine strategy for spatial operation processing is proposed for parallel spatial join processing. Object duplication caused by multi-assignment in spatial data partitioning can result in extra CPU cost as well as extra communication cost. We find that the key to overcome this problem is to preserve spatial locality in task decomposition. We show in this paper that a near-optimal speedup can be achieved for parallel spatial join processing using our new algorithms.

Dietary trends: Estimates from food supply and survey data

Objective: To illustrate methodological issues involved in estimating dietary trends in populations using data obtained from various sources in Australia in the 1980s and 1990s. Methods: Estimates of absolute and relative change in consumption of selected food items were calculated using national data published annually on the national food supply for 1982-83 to 1992-93 and responses to food frequency questions in two population based risk factor surveys in 1983 and 1994 in the Hunter Region of New South Wales, Australia. The validity of estimated food quantities obtained from these inexpensive sources at the beginning of the period was assessed by comparison with data from a national dietary survey conducted in 1983 using 24 h recall. Results: Trend estimates from the food supply data and risk factor survey data were in good agreement for increases in consumption of fresh fruit, vegetables and breakfast food and decreases in butter, margarine, sugar and alcohol. Estimates for trends in milk, eggs and bread consumption, however, were inconsistent. Conclusions: Both data sources can be used for monitoring progress towards national nutrition goals based on selected food items provided that some limitations are recognized. While data collection methods should be consistent over time they also need to allow for changes in the food supply (for example the introduction of new varieties such as low-fat dairy products). From time to time the trends derived from these inexpensive data sources should be compared with data derived from more detailed and quantitative estimates of dietary intake.

A comparative study of telephone versus onsite completion of the WOMAC 3.0 Osteoarthritis Index

Objective. Outcome assessment in clinical trials using the Western Ontario and McMaster University (WOMAC 3.0) Osteoarthritis Index is traditionally achieved through self-administration of the Index. However, in other areas of clinical measurement, telephone administration has been shown to be a reliable method of acquiring data that are both accurate and complete. To address this issue in knee osteoarthritis (OA), we conducted a comparative study of telephone administration by interviewer of WOMAC LK3.0 versus onsite self-completion at the hospital. Methods. Fifty consenting patients with knee OA were randomized to complete the WOMAC LK3.0 Index by telephone interview one day, followed by onsite completion the following day, or vice versa. Neither patients nor interviewers had access to any prior scores. Results. The mean age of the 50 patients was 66.3 years (range 44-82); 34 (68%) were female and 16 (32%) male. There was excellent agreement between the mean office and telephone scores, with mean differences for the WOMAC LK3.0 pain, stiffness, and function subscale scores and total score of 0.09, 0.12, 0.78, and 0.98, respectively. These differences were well within the respective protocol defined equivalence criteria of +/- 1.7, +/- 0.9, +/- 6.4, and +/- 9.1, and represented differences from office scores of 0.9, 2.6, 2.4, and 2.2%, respectively. Conclusion. The use of telephone interviews for the WOMAC LK3.0 Index is a valid method of obtaining OA outcome measurements. These observations have important implications for designing data acquisition strategies for future OA clinical trials and for longterm observational studies.

Fitting genetic models to twin data with binary and ordered categorical responses: A comparison of structural equation modelling and Bayesian hierarchical models

We compare Bayesian methodology utilizing free-ware BUGS (Bayesian Inference Using Gibbs Sampling) with the traditional structural equation modelling approach based on another free-ware package, Mx. Dichotomous and ordinal (three category) twin data were simulated according to different additive genetic and common environment models for phenotypic variation. Practical issues are discussed in using Gibbs sampling as implemented by BUGS to fit subject-specific Bayesian generalized linear models, where the components of variation may be estimated directly. The simulation study (based on 2000 twin pairs) indicated that there is a consistent advantage in using the Bayesian method to detect a correct model under certain specifications of additive genetics and common environmental effects. For binary data, both methods had difficulty in detecting the correct model when the additive genetic effect was low (between 10 and 20%) or of moderate range (between 20 and 40%). Furthermore, neither method could adequately detect a correct model that included a modest common environmental effect (20%) even when the additive genetic effect was large (50%). Power was significantly improved with ordinal data for most scenarios, except for the case of low heritability under a true ACE model. We illustrate and compare both methods using data from 1239 twin pairs over the age of 50 years, who were registered with the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Twin Registry (ATR) and presented symptoms associated with osteoarthritis occurring in joints of the hand.

Data-driven fuzzy analysis in quantitative mineral resource assessment

The integration of geo-information from multiple sources and of diverse nature in developing mineral favourability indexes (MFIs) is a well-known problem in mineral exploration and mineral resource assessment. Fuzzy set theory provides a convenient framework to combine and analyse qualitative and quantitative data independently of their source or characteristics. A novel, data-driven formulation for calculating MFIs based on fuzzy analysis is developed in this paper. Different geo-variables are considered fuzzy sets and their appropriate membership functions are defined and modelled. A new weighted average-type aggregation operator is then introduced to generate a new fuzzy set representing mineral favourability. The membership grades of the new fuzzy set are considered as the MFI. The weights for the aggregation operation combine the individual membership functions of the geo-variables, and are derived using information from training areas and L, regression. The technique is demonstrated in a case study of skarn tin deposits and is used to integrate geological, geochemical and magnetic data. The study area covers a total of 22.5 km(2) and is divided into 349 cells, which include nine control cells. Nine geo-variables are considered in this study. Depending on the nature of the various geo-variables, four different types of membership functions are used to model the fuzzy membership of the geo-variables involved. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Large scale experiments on gravel and mixed beaches: Experimental procedure, data documentation and initial results

This paper provides information on the experimental set-up, data collection methods and results to date for the project Large scale modelling of coarse grained beaches, undertaken at the Large Wave Channel (GWK) of FZK in Hannover by an international group of researchers in Spring 2002. The main objective of the experiments was to provide full scale measurements of cross-shore processes on gravel and mixed beaches for the verification and further development of cross-shore numerical models of gravel and mixed sediment beaches. Identical random and regular wave tests were undertaken for a gravel beach and a mixed sand/gravel beach set up in the flume. Measurements included profile development, water surface elevation along the flume, internal pressures in the swash zone, piezometric head levels within the beach, run-up, flow velocities in the surf-zone and sediment size distributions. The purpose of the paper is to present to the scientific community the experimental procedure, a summary of the data collected, some initial results, as well as a brief outline of the on-going research being carried out with the data by different research groups. The experimental data is available to all the scientific community following submission of a statement of objectives, specification of data requirements and an agreement to abide with the GWK and EU protocols. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Facilitating soil-and plant-water research through the use of TDR

The development of TDR for measurement of soil water content and electrical conductivity has resulted in a large shift in measurement methods for a breadth of soil and hydrological characterization efforts. TDR has also opened new possibilities for soil and plant research. Five examples show how TDR has enhanced our ability to conduct our soil- and plant-water research. (i) Oxygen is necessary for healthy root growth and plant development but quantitative evaluation of the factors controlling oxygen supply in soil depends on knowledge of the soil water content by TDR. With water content information we have modeled successfully some impact of tillage methods on oxygen supply to roots and their growth response. (ii) For field assessment of soil mechanical properties influencing crop growth, water content capability was added to two portable soil strength measuring devices; (a) A TDT (Time Domain Transmittivity)-equipped soil cone penetrometer was used to evaluate seasonal soil strengthwater content relationships. In conventional tillage systems the relationships are dynamic and achieve the more stable no-tillage relationships only relatively late in each growing season; (b) A small TDR transmission line was added to a modified sheargraph that allowed shear strength and water content to be measured simultaneously on the same sample. In addition, the conventional graphing procedure for data acquisition was converted to datalogging using strain gauges. Data acquisition rate was improved by more than a factor of three with improved data quality. (iii) How do drought tolerant plants maintain leaf water content? Non-destructive measurement of TDR water content using a flat serpentine triple wire transmission line replaces more lengthy procedures of measuring relative water content. Two challenges remain: drought-stressed leaves alter salt content, changing electrical conductivity, and drought induced changes in leaf morphology affect TDR measurements. (iv) Remote radar signals are reflected from within the first 2 cm of soil. Appropriate calibration of radar imaging for soil water content can be achieved by a parallel pair of blades separated by 8 cm, reaching 1.7 cm into soil and forming a 20 cm TDR transmission line. The correlation between apparent relative permittivity from TDR and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) backscatter coefficient was 0.57 from an airborne flyover. These five examples highlight the diversity in the application of TDR in soil and plant research.

The BCD transient recorder revisited: firmware for the ISA-to-USB bridging card and software for the graphical user interface

This report describes recent updates to the custom-built data-acquisition hardware operated by the Center for Hypersonics. In 2006, an ISA-to-USB bridging card was developed as part of Luke Hillyard's final-year thesis. This card allows the hardware to be connected to any recent personal computers via a (USB or RS232) serial port and it provides a number of simple text-based commands for control of the hardware. A graphical user interface program was also updated to help the experimenter manage the data acquisition functions. Sampled data is stored in text files that have been compressed with the gzip for mat. To simplify the later archiving or transport of the data, all files specific to a shot are stored in a single directory. This includes a text file for the run description, the signal configuration file and the individual sampled-data files, one for each signal that was recorded.

An evaluation of the evidence for linkages between mangroves and fisheries: A synthesis of the literature and identification of research directions

There is a widely held paradigm that mangroves are critical for sustaining production in coastal fisheries through their role as important nursery areas for fisheries species. This paradigm frequently forms the basis for important management decisions on habitat conservation and restoration of mangroves and other coastal wetlands. This paper reviews the current status of the paradigm and synthesises the information on the processes underlying these potential links. In the past, the paradigm has been supported by studies identifying correlations between the areal and linear extent of mangroves and fisheries catch. This paper goes beyond the correlative approach to develop a new framework on which future evaluations can be based. First, the review identifies what type of marine animals are using mangroves and at what life stages. These species can be categorised as estuarine residents, marine-estuarine species and marine stragglers. The marine-estuarine category includes many commercial species that use mangrove habitats as nurseries. The second stage is to determine why these species are using mangroves as nurseries. The three main proposals are that mangroves provide a refuge from predators, high levels of nutrients and shelter from physical disturbances. The recognition of the important attributes of mangrove nurseries then allows an evaluation of how changes in mangroves will affect the associated fauna. Surprisingly few studies have addressed this question. Consequently, it is difficult to predict how changes in any of these mangrove attributes would affect the faunal communities within them and, ultimately, influence the fisheries associated with them. From the information available, it seems likely that reductions in mangrove habitat complexity would reduce the biodiversity and abundance of the associated fauna, and these changes have the potential to cause cascading effects at higher trophic levels with possible consequences for fisheries. Finally, there is a discussion of the data that are currently available on mangrove distribution and fisheries catch, the limitations of these data and how best to use the data to understand mangrove-fisheries links and, ultimately, to optimise habitat and fisheries management. Examples are drawn from two relatively data-rich regions, Moreton Bay (Australia) and Western Peninsular Malaysia, to illustrate the data needs and research requirements for investigating the mangrove-fisheries paradigm. Having reliable and accurate data at appropriate spatial and temporal scales is crucial for mangrove-fisheries investigations. Recommendations are made for improvements to data collection methods that would meet these important criteria. This review provides a framework on which to base future investigations of mangrove-fisheries links, based on an understanding of the underlying processes and the need for rigorous data collection. Without this information, the understanding of the relationship between mangroves and fisheries will remain limited. Future investigations of mangrove-fisheries links must take this into account in order to have a good ecological basis and to provide better information and understanding to both fisheries and conservation managers.

Preprocessing and time-frequency analysis of newborn EEG seizures

Neurological disease or dysfunction in newborn infants is often first manifested by seizures. Prolonged seizures can result in impaired neurodevelopment or even death. In adults, the clinical signs of seizures are well defined and easily recognized. In newborns, however, the clinical signs are subtle and may be absent or easily missed without constant close observation. This article describes the use of adaptive signal processing techniques for removing artifacts from newborn electroencephalogram (EEG) signals. Three adaptive algorithms have been designed in the context of EEG signals. This preprocessing is necessary before attempting a fine time-frequency analysis of EEG rhythmical activities, such as electrical seizures, corrupted by high amplitude signals. After an overview of newborn EEG signals, the authors describe the data acquisition set-up. They then introduce the basic physiological concepts related to normal and abnormal newborn EEGs and discuss the three adaptive algorithms for artifact removal. They also present time-frequency representations (TFRs) of seizure signals and discuss the estimation and modeling of the instantaneous frequency related to the main ridge of the TFR.

Refinements in stress echocardiographic techniques improve inter-institutional agreement in interpretation of dobutamine stress echocardiograms

Aims To determine the degree of inter-institutional agreement in the assessment of dobutamine stress echocardiograms using modern stress echo cardiographic technology in combination with standardized data acquisition and assessment criteria. Method and Results Among six experienced institutions, 150 dobutamine stress echocardiograms (dobutamine up to 40 mug.kg(-1) min(-1) and atropine up to I mg) were performed on patients with suspected coronary artery disease using fundamental and harmonic imaging following a consistent digital acquisition protocol. Each dobutamine stress echocardiogram was assessed at every institution regarding endocardial visibility and left ventricular wall motion without knowledge of any other data using standardized reading criteria. No patients were excluded due to poor image quality or inadequate stress level. Coronary angiography was performed within 4 weeks. Coronary angiography demonstrated significant coronary artery disease (less than or equal to50% diameter stenosis) in 87 patients. Using harmonic imaging an average of 5.2+/-0.9 institutions agreed on dobutamine stress echocardiogram results as being normal or abnormal (mean kappa 0.55; 95% CI 0.50-0.60). Agreement was higher in patients with no (equal assessment of dobutamine stress echocardiogram results by 5.5 +/- 0.8 institutions) or three-vessel coronary artery disease (5.4 +/- 0.8 institutions) and lower in one- or two- vessel disease (5.0 +/- 0.9 and 5.2 +/- 1.0 institutions, respectively-, P=0.041). Disagreement on test results was greater in only minor wall motion abnormalities. Agreement on dobutamine stress echocardiogram results was lower using fundamental imaging (mean kappa 0.49; 95% CI 0.44-0.54; P