Spontaneous combustion and simulation of mine fires and their effects on mine ventilation systems

The structure of a comprehensive research project into mine fires study applying the Ventgraph mine fire simulation software, preplanning of escape scenarios and general interaction with rescue responses is outlined. The project has Australian Coal Association Research Program (ACARP) funding and also relies on substantial mining company site support. This practical input from mine operators is essential and allows the approach to be introduced in the most creditable way. The effort is built around the introduction of fire simulation computer software to the Australian mining industry and the consequent modelling of fire scenarios in selected different mine layouts. Application of the simulation software package to the changing mine layouts requires experience to achieve realistic outcomes. Most Australian mines of size currently use a ventilation network simulation program. Under the project a small subroutine has been written to transfer the input data from the existing mine ventilation network simulation program to ‘Ventgraph’. This has been tested successfully. To understand fire simulation behaviour on the mine ventilation system, it is necessary to understood the possible effects of mine fires on various mine ventilation systems correctly first. Case studies demonstrating the possible effects of fires on some typical Australian coal mine ventilation circuits have been examined. The situation in which there is some gas make at the face and effects with fire have also been developed to emphasise how unstable and dangerous situations may arise. The primary objective of the part of the study described in this paper is to use mine fire simulation software to gain better understanding of how spontaneous combustion initiated fires can interact with the complex ventilation behaviour underground during a substantial fire. It focuses on the simulation of spontaneous combustion sourced heatings that develop into open fires. Further, it examines ventilation behaviour effects of spontaneous combustion initiated pillar fires and examines the difficulties these can be present if a ventilation reversal occurs. It also briefly examines simulation of use of the inertisation to assist in mine recovery. Mine fires are recognised across the world as a major hazard issue. New approaches allowing improvement in understanding their consequences have been developed as an aid in handling this complex area.

Events in Indonesia: exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting methods in complex crisis situations

The desire to know the future is as old as humanity. For the tourism industry the demand for accurate foretelling of the future course of events is a task that consumes considerable energy and is of great significance to investors. This paper examines the issue of forecasting by comparing forecasts of inbound tourism made prior to the political and economic crises that engulfed Indonesia from 1997 onwards with actual arrival figures. The paper finds that current methods of forecasting are not able to cope with unexpected crises and other disasters and that alternative methods need to be examined including scenarios, political risk and application of chaos theory. The paper outlines a framework for classifying shocks according to a scale of severity, probability, type of event, level of certainty and suggested forecasting tools for each scale of shock. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ethics and health systems research in 'post'-conflict situations

Although considerable attention has been given to ethical issues related to clinical research in developing countries, in particular related to HIV therapy, there has been limited focus on health systems research, despite its increasing importance in the light of current trends in development assistance. This paper examines ethical issues related to health systems research in 'post'-conflict situations, addressing both generic issues for developing countries and those issues specific to 'post'-conflict societies, citing examples from the author's Cambodian experience. It argues that the destruction of health infrastructure results in a loss of structures and processes that would otherwise protect prospective research subjects who are part of vulnerable populations. It identifies the growth of health systems research as part of a trend towards sectoral and programmatic development assistance, the emergence of 'knowledge generation' as a form of research linked to development, and the potential for conflict where multilateral and bilateral donors are both primary funders and users of health systems research. It also examines the position of the health system researcher in relation to the sponsors of this research, and the health system being analysed.

Responding to interpersonal and physically provoking situations in classrooms: emotional intensity in children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder

The present research investigated the emotional functioning of children with and without Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), in order to examine the relationships between emotional intensity and classroom-based responses to physically and interpersonally provoking situations. Seventy children (35 with ADHD and 35 without ADHD) in Years 3–8 participated and were matched on age, gender, grade, and school class. Each child was observed individually in the classroom over two 20-min periods. The Responses to Interpersonal and Physically Provoking Situations Observation Schedule was used to record the frequency and severity of responses and the triggers for these during the observational periods. Children later rated their emotional intensity in response to hypothetical scenarios on the Emotional Intensity Scale for Children. Results revealed children with ADHD displayed significantly more frequent and severe challenging and solitary off-task behaviours, and significantly more frequent vocalisations and severe interactional off-task behaviours. For triggers, environmental and teacher-initiated distractions were significantly more frequently observed in children with ADHD. There were no differences in ratings of emotional intensity between children with and without ADHD, although a number of significant and meaningful correlations were observed between positive emotional intensity scores and responses and triggers.