Interactive expectations

In modeling expectation formation, economic agents are usually viewed as forming expectations adaptively or in accordance with some rationality postulate. We offer an alternative nonlinear model where agents exchange their opinions and information with each other. Such a model yields multiple equilibria, or attracting distributions, that are persistent but subject to sudden large jumps. Using German Federal Statistical Office economic indicators and German IFO Poll expectational data, we show that this kind of model performs well in simulation experiments. Focusing upon producers' expectations in the consumption goods sector, we also discover evidence that structural change in the interactive process occurred over the period of investigation (1970-1998). Specifically, interactions in expectation formation seem to have become less important over time.

International Grassland Congress Outlook: An historical review and future expectations

Features of the history of the International Grassland Congress are mentioned. Aspects of a number of failed themes in grassland science are described with respect to molecular biology, intensive systems of ruminant production, carbohydrate use in plant growth, plant succession and range condition, and stocking method. Future expectations are focused on meeting a balance of objectives, maintaining reductionist science, taking new initiatives in plant improvement and in the development of animal production systems, and reducing barriers to international trade. The adoption of grassland science depends upon the growth of new learning, especially through cyclical interaction between scientists and farmers.

Expectations of the effects of drinking on couple relationship functioning: An assessment of women in distressed relationships who consume alcohol at harmful levels

Based on a cognitive-social learning model of alcohol use, it was hypothesised that women with both alcohol and relationship problems would endorse more positive expectations of the effects of alcohol consumption on their relationship and would report lower relational efficacy than women without relationship or alcohol problems. Measures of relationship-referent alcohol expectancies and relational efficacy were completed by 174 married women with both alcohol and relationship problems (n = 20), alcohol problems alone (it = 26), relationship problems alone (n = 30), or neither problem (n = 98). Women without either alcohol or relationship problems strongly rejected expectations of enhanced relationship functioning (e.g., enhanced intimacy, increased emotional expression) following alcohol consumption, whereas women with both alcohol and relationship problems were ambivalent about these positive expectations. Women with both problems also reported lower relational efficacy than the other groups of women. Negative expectations about the effect of alcohol consumption on relationships in women with low relational efficacy may inhibit harmful drinking. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inflation expectations, interest rates and arbitrary income transfers

Unexpected inflation, disinflation or deflation cause arbitrary income transfers between an economy's borrowers and lenders. This redistribution results from distorted real interest rates that are too high when price level changes are over-predicted and too low when they are under-predicted. This article shows that in Australia's case, inflation expectations were mostly biased upwards throughout the 1990s, according to the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research series and to a new derived series based on bond yields, implying that real interest rates were too high over this time. In turn, this caused substantial arbitrary income transfers from debtors to creditors, estimated to have averaged up to 3 per cent of gross domestic product over the period.

Network structures: Working differently and changing expectations

There is a growing need for innovative methods of dealing with complex, social problems. New types of collaborative efforts have emerged as a result of the inability of more traditional bureaucratic hierarchical arrangements such as departmental program, to resolve these problems. Network structures are one such arrangement that Is at the forefront of this movement. Although collaboration through network structures establishes an innovative response to dealing with social issues, there remains an expectation that outcomes and processes are based on traditional ways of working. It is necessary for practitioners and policy makers alike to begin to understand the realities of what can be expected from network structures in order to maximize the benefits of these unique mechanisms.

Do rural consumers expect a prescription from their GP visit? Investigation of patients' expectations for a prescription and doctors' prescribing decisions in rural Australia

Objective: To assess patients’ expectation for receiving a prescription and GPs’ perceptions of patient expectation for a prescription. Design: Matched questionnaire study completed by patients and GPs. Setting: Seven general practices in rural Queensland, Australia. Subjects: The subjects were 481 patients consulting 17 GPs. Main outcome measures: Patients’ expectation for receiving a prescription and GPs’ perceptions of patients’ expectation. Results: Ideal expectation (hope) for a prescription was expressed by 57% (274/481) of patients. Sixty-six per cent (313/481) thought it was likely that the doctor would actually give them a prescription. Doctors accurately predicted hope or lack of hope for a prescription in 65% (314/481) of consultations, but were inaccurate in 19% (93/481). A prescription was written in 55% of consultations. No increase in patients’ expectation, doctors’ perceptions of expectation, or decision to prescribe were detected for patients living a greater distance from the doctors. Conclusions: Rural patients demonstrated similar rates of hope for a prescription to those found in previous urban studies. Rural doctors seem to be similarly ‘accurate’ and ‘inaccurate’ in determining patients’ expectations. Rates of prescribing were comparable to urban rates. Distance was not found to increase the level of patient expectation, affect the doctors’ perception or to influence the decision to prescribe.