Customer information system data pre-processing with feature selection techniques for non-technical losses prediction in an electricity market

Non-technical losses (NTL) identification and prediction are important tasks for many utilities. Data from customer information system (CIS) can be used for NTL analysis. However, in order to accurately and efficiently perform NTL analysis, the original data from CIS need to be pre-processed before any detailed NTL analysis can be carried out. In this paper, we propose a feature selection based method for CIS data pre-processing in order to extract the most relevant information for further analysis such as clustering and classifications. By removing irrelevant and redundant features, feature selection is an essential step in data mining process in finding optimal subset of features to improve the quality of result by giving faster time processing, higher accuracy and simpler results with fewer features. Detailed feature selection analysis is presented in the paper. Both time-domain and load shape data are compared based on the accuracy, consistency and statistical dependencies between features.

Load profiling and data mining techniques in electricity deregulated market

This paper presents load profiles of electricity customers, using the knowledge discovery in databases (KDD) procedure, a data mining technique, to determine the load profiles for different types of customers. In this paper, the current load profiling methods are compared using data mining techniques, by analysing and evaluating these classification techniques. The objective of this study is to determine the best load profiling methods and data mining techniques to classify, detect and predict non-technical losses in the distribution sector, due to faulty metering and billing errors, as well as to gather knowledge on customer behaviour and preferences so as to gain a competitive advantage in the deregulated market. This paper focuses mainly on the comparative analysis of the classification techniques selected; a forthcoming paper will focus on the detection and prediction methods.

A randomised control trial of exercise and manipulative therapy for cervicogenic headache

Study Design. A multicenter, randomized controlled trial with unblinded treatment and blinded outcome assessment was conducted. The treatment period was 6 weeks with follow-up assessment after treatment, then at 3, 6, and 12 months. Objectives. To determine the effectiveness of manipulative therapy and a low-load exercise program for cervicogenic headache when used alone and in combination, as compared with a control group. Summary of Background Data. Headaches arising from cervical musculoskeletal disorders are common. Conservative therapies are recommended as the first treatment of choice. Evidence for the effectiveness of manipulative therapy is inconclusive and available only for the short term. There is no evidence for exercise, and no study has investigated the effect of combined therapies for cervicogenic headache. Methods. In this study, 200 participants who met the diagnostic criteria for cervicogenic headache were randomized into four groups: manipulative therapy group, exercise therapy group, combined therapy group, and a control group. The primary outcome was a change in headache frequency. Other outcomes included changes in headache intensity and duration, the Northwick Park Neck Pain Index, medication intake, and patient satisfaction. Physical outcomes included pain on neck movement, upper cervical joint tenderness, a craniocervical flexion muscle test, and a photographic measure of posture. Results. There were no differences in headache-related and demographic characteristics between the groups at baseline. The loss to follow-up evaluation was 3.5%. At the 12-month follow-up assessment, both manipulative therapy and specific exercise had significantly reduced headache frequency and intensity, and the neck pain and effects were maintained (P < 0.05 for all). The combined therapies was not significantly superior to either therapy alone, but 10% more patients gained relief with the combination. Effect sizes were at least moderate and clinically relevant. Conclusion. Manipulative therapy and exercise can reduce the symptoms of cervicogenic headache, and the effects are maintained.

Effects of memory load and distraction on performance and event-related slow potentials in a visuospatial working memory task

Brain electrical activity related to working memory was recorded at 15 scalp electrodes during a visuospatial delayed response task. Participants (N = 18) touched the remembered position of a target on a computer screen after either a 1 or 8 sec delay. These memory trials were compared to sensory trials in which the target remained present throughout the delay and response periods. Distracter stimuli identical to the target were briefly presented during the delay on 30% of trials. Responses were less accurate in memory than sensory trials, especially after the long delay. During the delay slow potentials developed that were significantly more negative in memory than sensory trials. The difference between memory and sensory trials was greater at anterior than posterior electrodes. On trials with distracters, the slow potentials generated by memory trials showed further enhancement of negativity whereas there were minimal effects on accuracy of performance. The results provide evidence that engagement of visuospatial working memory generates slow wave negativity with a timing and distribution consistent with frontal activation. Enhanced brain activity associated with working memory is required to maintain performance in the presence of distraction. © 1997 by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Effect of load distance on self-selected manual lifting technique

The aim of this research is to determine the effects of constraining the horizontal distance of the feet from the load on the posture adopted at the start of the lift. Kinematic data were collected while each of 24 subjects lifted 3, 6, and 9 kg loads from a starting height 18 cm above the ground. The position of the feet was controlled relative to the load such that the horizontal distance from the hand to the ankle at the start of extension was either 20, 40, or 60 cm. Subjects performed 20 trials in each of six combinations of load and ankle-load distance chosen to provide three sets of equivilent load moment pairs. The initial horizontal distance from the load to the ankle had a large influence on the posture adopted to lift the load. Ankle and knee flexion, in particular, were reduced when the ankle-load distance was smaller, and particularly so when the distance was reduced to 20 cm. Hip flexion was reduced to a smaller extent, while lumbar vertebral flexion remained relatively unchanged. The inclination of the trunk at the start of the lift was unchanged when the ankle-load distance was 60 or 40 cm, but was 10 degrees greater when the load was 20 cm from the ankles, indicating that subjects adopted a posture closer to a stoop when the ankle-load distance was small. Comparison of conditions of equal load moment (but different load mass and ankle-load distance) revealed differences which mirrored the effects of ankle-load distance alone, suggesting that the effects of ankle-load distance on the posture adopted at the start of extension were largely independent of the load moment. While the forces and torques required to lift a load must be to some extent dependent on the load moment, rather than load or ankle-load distance per se, the posture adopted to lift the load is not.

Effects of egg load on the host-selection behaviour of Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner) (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae)

We examined the effect of age-specific fecundity, mated status, and egg load on host-plant selection, by Helicoverpa armigera under laboratory conditions. The physiological state of a female moth (number of mature eggs produced) greatly influences her host-plant specificity and propensity to oviposit (oviposition motivation). Female moths were less discriminating against cowpea (a low-ranked host) relative to maize (a high-ranked host) as egg load increased. Similarly, increased egg load led to a greater propensity to oviposit on both cowpea and maize. Distribution of oviposition with age of mated females peaked shortly after mating and declined steadily thereafter until death. Most mated females (88%) carried only a single spermatophore, a few females (12%) contained two. The significance of these findings in relation to host-plant selection by H. armigera, and its management, are discussed.

Impact on perinatal mortality of missed opportunities to treat maternal syphilis in rural South Africa: baseline results from a clinic randomized controlled trial

OBJECTIVE To demonstrate the impact on perinatal mortality of inadequate treatment for maternal syphilis despite adequate screening. METHOD In 12 clinics providing antenatal care in Hlabisa, South Africa 1783 pregnant women were screened for syphilis at their first antenatal visit between June and October 1998. Pregnancy outcome was determined among those with syphilis. RESULTS A total of 158 women were diagnosed with syphilis: prevalence 9% (95% CI 8-10%). Mean gestation at first antenatal visit was 24 weeks. Thirty women (19%) received no treatment and 96 (61%) received all three recommended doses of penicillin. Among those receiving at least one dose, mean delay to the first dose was 20 days. Among those fully treated mean delay to treatment completion was 34 days. Pregnancy outcome was known for 142 women (90%) and there were 17 perinatal deaths among 15 women (11%). Eleven of 43 women (26%) who received one or fewer doses of penicillin experienced ii perinatal death whilst only four of 99 women (4%) who received two or more doses of penicillin did so (P = 0.0001). Protection from perinatal death increased with the number of doses of penicillin: linear modelling suggests that one dose reduced the risk by 41%, two doses by 65% and three doses by 79%, compared with no doses. A dose-specific, categorical model confirmed reduction in risk by 79% for all three doses. CONCLUSION Despite effective screening, many pregnant women with syphilis remain inadequately treated, resulting in avoidable perinatal mortality. Delays in starting and finishing treatment, as well as incomplete treatment occur. Near-patient syphilis testing in the antenatal clinic with early treatment could improve treatment of syphilis and reduce perinatal mortality, and a randomized trial to test this is underway.

Baseline laboratory bioassay data for spinosad against populations of Australian sheep blowfly, Lucilia cuprina (Wiedemann) (Diptera : Calliphoridae)

Spinosad was an effective larvicide against the Australian sheep blowfly, Lucilia cuprina. A survey of 41 field populations indicated no cross-resistance to spinosad from existing organophosphate resistance. The data presented serve as baseline data for future resistance surveys.

The impact of staff empowerment and communication style on customer evaluations: The special case of service failure

Empowering front-line staff to deal with service failures has been proposed as a method of recovering from service breakdown and ensuring greater customer satisfaction. However, no empirical study has investigated consumer responses to empowerment strategies. This research investigates the effect on customer satisfaction and service quality of two employee characteristics: the degree to which the employee is empowered (full, limited, and none), and the employee's communication style (accommodative - informal and personal, and underaccommodative-formal and impersonal). These employee characteristics are studied within the context of service failures. Subjects were shown videotaped service scenarios, and asked to complete satisfaction and service quality ratings. Results revealed that the fully empowered employee produced more customer satisfaction than the other conditions, but only when the service provider used an accommodating style of communication. Fully empowered and nonempowered employees were not judged differently when an underaccommodating style of communication was adopted. (C) 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Customer emotions in service failure and recovery encounters

Emotions play a significant role in the workplace, and considerable attention has been given to the study of employee emotions. Customers also play a central function in organizations, but much less is known about customer emotions. This chapter reviews the growing literature on customer emotions in employee–customer interfaces with a focus on service failure and recovery encounters, where emotions are heightened. It highlights emerging themes and key findings, addresses the measurement, modeling, and management of customer emotions, and identifies future research streams. Attention is given to emotional contagion, relationships between affective and cognitive processes, customer anger, customer rage, and individual differences.

Justice strategy options for increased customer satisfaction in a services recovery setting

This study investigates the influence of justice (procedural, interactional and distributive) on measures of customer satisfaction within a hotel setting. Specifically, the study investigates the levels of satisfaction associated with various combinations of procedural, interactional, and distributive justice related service recovery strategies. Using especially designed video vignettes of a hotel service breakdown, respondents rated their levels of satisfaction for the video vignettes that depicted varying levels of. (a) level of concern shown by the service provider, (b) whether policy was adhered to, (c) degree of 'voice' given to the customer, and (d) type of compensation. Between subject MANOVA analyses revealed a number of main effects and interactions. Results clearly show that satisfaction varied significantly depending on the various combinations of recovery measures. In particular, a two-way interaction between adherence to policy and type of compensation was found. Furthermore, it was found that respondents expressed higher satisfaction with the service when a 50% refund was given, and the provider was seen to be adhering to policy, rather than doing a special favor for the customer. In contrast, when a token measure of compensation is given (i.e. giving away a couple of drink vouchers), respondents expressed higher levels of satisfaction if the service provider was doing a special favor rather than merely adhering to company policy. Implications for managers and scholars are discussed. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

An adaptive neural-wavelet model for short term load forecasting

This paper proposed a novel model for short term load forecast in the competitive electricity market. The prior electricity demand data are treated as time series. The forecast model is based on wavelet multi-resolution decomposition by autocorrelation shell representation and neural networks (multilayer perceptrons, or MLPs) modeling of wavelet coefficients. To minimize the influence of noisy low level coefficients, we applied the practical Bayesian method Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) model to choose the size of MLPs, which are then trained to provide forecasts. The individual wavelet domain forecasts are recombined to form the accurate overall forecast. The proposed method is tested using Queensland electricity demand data from the Australian National Electricity Market. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.