Schistosomiasis in the People's Republic of China: Prospects and challenges for the 21st century

Schistosomiasis japonica is a serious communicable disease and a major disease risk for more than 30 million people living in the tropical and subtropical zones of China. Infection remains a major public health concern despite 45 years of intensive control efforts. It is estimated that 865, 000 people and 100,250 bovines are today infected in the provinces where the disease is endemic, and its transmission continues. Unlike tire other schistosome species known to infect humans, the oriental schistosome, Schistosoma japonicum, is a true zoonotic organism, with a range of mammalian reservoirs, making control efforts extremely difficult. Clinical features of schistosomiasis range from fever; headache, and lethargy to severe fibro-obstructive pathology leading to portal hypertension, ascites, and hepatosplenomegaly, which can cause premature death. Infected children ale stunted and have cognitive defects impairing memory and learning ability. Current control programs are heavily based on community chemotherapy with a single dose of the drug praziquantel, but vaccines (for use in bovines and humans) in combination with other control strategies ale needed to make elimination of the disease possible. In this article, we provide an overview of the biology, epidemiology clinical features, and prospects for cona ol of oriental schistosomiasis in the People's Republic of China.

Climate change and biotic invasions: a case history of a tropical woody vine

The impacts of climate change in the potential distribution and relative abundance of a C3 shrubby vine, Cryptostegia grandiflora, were investigated using the CLIMEX modelling package. Based upon its current naturalised distribution, C. grandiflora appears to occupy only a small fraction of its potential distribution in Australia under current climatic conditions; mostly in apparently sub-optimal habitat. The potential distribution of C. grandiflora is sensitive towards changes in climate and atmospheric chemistry in the expected range of this century, particularly those that result in increased temperature and water use efficiency. Climate change is likely to increase the potential distribution and abundance of the plant, further increasing the area at risk of invasion, and threatening the viability of current control strategies markedly. By identifying areas at risk of invasion, and vulnerabilities of control strategies, this analysis demonstrates the utility of climate models for providing information suitable to help formulate large-scale, long-term strategic plans for controlling biotic invasions. The effects of climate change upon the potential distribution of C. grandiflora are sufficiently great that strategic control plans for biotic invasions should routinely include their consideration. Whilst the effect of climate change upon the efficacy of introduced biological control agents remain unknown, their possible effect in the potential distribution of C. grandiflora will likely depend not only upon their effects on the population dynamics of C. grandiflora, but also on the gradient of climatic suitability adjacent to each segment of the range boundary.

Optimal release strategies for biological control agents: an application of stochastic dynamic programming to population management

1. Establishing biological control agents in the field is a major step in any classical biocontrol programme, yet there are few general guidelines to help the practitioner decide what factors might enhance the establishment of such agents. 2. A stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) approach, linked to a metapopulation model, was used to find optimal release strategies (number and size of releases), given constraints on time and the number of biocontrol agents available. By modelling within a decision-making framework we derived rules of thumb that will enable biocontrol workers to choose between management options, depending on the current state of the system. 3. When there are few well-established sites, making a few large releases is the optimal strategy. For other states of the system, the optimal strategy ranges from a few large releases, through a mixed strategy (a variety of release sizes), to many small releases, as the probability of establishment of smaller inocula increases. 4. Given that the probability of establishment is rarely a known entity, we also strongly recommend a mixed strategy in the early stages of a release programme, to accelerate learning and improve the chances of finding the optimal approach.

Hormonal factors and risk of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage - An international population-based, case-control study

Background and Purpose-Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is more common in women than in men, but the role of hormonal factors in its etiology remains uncertain. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between hormonal factors and risk of SAH in women. Methods-This was a prospective, multicenter, population-based, case-control study performed in 4 major urban centers in Australia and New Zealand. Two hundred sixty-eight female cases of first-ever aneurysmal SAH occurred during 1995-1998. Controls were 286 frequency-matched women from the general population of each center. Outcome measures included risk of SAH associated with use of oral contraceptive pills (OCPs), hormone replacement therapy (HRT), and various endogenous hormonal factors including menstrual patterns, parity, age at birth of first child, and breast-feeding practices. Results-Cases and controls did not differ with regard to menstrual and reproductive history except in age at bir th of first child, where older age was associated with reduced risk of SAH (odds ratio [OR], 0.63; 95% CI, 0.43, 0.91). Relative to never use of HRT, the adjusted OR for over use of HRT was 0.64 (95% CI, 0.41, 0.98), which did not alter significantly after further adjustment for possible confounding factors. Borderline evidence of an inverse association was detected for past use of HRT (adjusted OR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.30, 1.13) and current use of HRT (adjusted OR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.40, 1.13), but there was no evidence of an association for use of OCPs (adjusted OR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.58, 1.60). Conclusions-The risks of SAH are lower in women whose first pregnancy is at an older age and women who have ever used HRT but not OCPs. The findings suggest an independent etiologic role for hormonal factors in the pathogenesis of aneurysmal SAH and provide support for a protective role fur HRT on risk of SAH in postmenopausal women.

Active and passive smoking and the risk of subarachnoid hemorrhage - An international population-based case-control study

Background and Purpose - This study was undertaken to better clarify the risks associated with cigarette smoking and subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Methods - The study included 432 incident cases of SAH frequency matched to 473 community SAH-free controls to determine dose-dependent associations of active and passive smoking ( at home) and smoking cessation with SAH. Results - Compared with never smokers not exposed to passive smoking, the adjusted odds ratio for SAH among current smokers was 5.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.1 to 8.1); for past smokers, 1.2 ( 95% CI, 0.8 to 2.0); and for passive smokers, 0.9 ( 95% CI, 0.6 to 1.5). Current and lifetime exposures showed a clear dose-dependent effect, and risks appeared more prominent in women and for aneurysmal SAH. Approximately 1 in 3 cases of SAH could be attributed to current smoking, but risks decline quickly after smoking cessation, even among heavy smokers. Conclusions - A strong positive association was found between cigarette smoking and SAH, especially for aneurysmal SAH and women, which is virtually eliminated within a few years of smoking cessation. Large opportunities exist for preventing SAH through smoking avoidance and cessation programs.

The effect of musculoskeletal pain on motor activity and control

Aberrant movement patterns and postures are obvious to clinicians managing patients with musculoskeletal pain. However, some changes in motor function that occur in the presence of pain are less apparent. Clinical and basic science investigations have provided evidence of the effects of nociception on aspects of motor function. Both increases and decreases in muscle activity have been shown, along with alterations in neuronal control mechanisms, proprioception, and local muscle morphology. Various models have been proposed in an attempt to provide an explanation for some of these changes. These include the vicious cycle and pain adaptation models. Recent research has seen the emergence of a new model in which patterns of muscle activation and recruitment are altered in the presence of pain (neuromuscular activation model). These changes seem to particularly affect the ability of muscles to perform synergistic functions related to maintaining joint stability and control. These changes are believed to persist into the period of chronicity. This review shows current knowledge of the effect of musculoskeletal pain on the motor system and presents the various proposed models, in addition to other shown effects not covered by these models. The relevance of these models to both acute and chronic pain is considered. It is apparent that people experiencing musculoskeletal pain exhibit complex motor responses that may show some variation with the time course of the disorder. (C) 2001 by the American Pain Society.

Postmenopausal Hormone Use, Screening, and Breast Cancer: Characterization and Control of a Bias

Previous investigators have suggested that screening-related biases may explain associations between postmenopausal hormone use and breast cancer. To investigate these biases, we studied postmenopausal women in the Nurses' Health Study from 1988 to 1994. Hormone use is associated with increased subsequent screening. Among women not screened in the previous 2 years, the probability difference, comparing current hormone users with others, for having mammography in the following 2 years is 19.5%; among women previously screened, the difference is 4.9%. These differences persist after control for other factors. If the increase in screening is causal, screening by mammogram could be intermediate in the causal pathway to breast cancer diagnosis. To deal with this problem, we restrict attention to a subset of the cohort in which the effect of postmenopausal hormone use on screening is small (women previously screened). In this subset, the rate ratio comparing breast cancer rates among current postmenopausal hormone users with others is 1.28. In a sensitivity analysis, the bias could not by itself plausibly account for the associations in our data. Our data provide evidence of an association between postmenopausal hormone use and breast cancer that is not solely the product of a detection bias.

Neural adaptations to resistance training - Implications for movement control

It has long been believed that resistance training is accompanied by changes within the nervous system that play an important role in the development of strength. Many elements of the nervous system exhibit the potential for adaptation in response to resistance training, including supraspinal centres, descending neural tracts, spinal circuitry and the motor end plate connections between motoneurons and muscle fibres. Yet the specific sites of adaptation along the neuraxis have seldom been identified experimentally, and much of the evidence for neural adaptations following resistance training remains indirect. As a consequence of this current lack of knowledge, there exists uncertainty regarding the manner in which resistance training impacts upon the control and execution of functional movements. We aim to demonstrate that resistance training is likely to cause adaptations to many neural elements that are involved in the control of movement, and is therefore likely to affect movement execution during a wide range of tasks. We review a small number of experiments that provide evidence that resistance training affects the way in which muscles that have been engaged during training are recruited during related movement tasks. The concepts addressed in this article represent an important new approach to research on the effects of resistance training. They are also of considerable practical importance, since most individuals perform resistance training in the expectation that it will enhance their performance in-related functional tasks.

Murine ventricular L-type Ca2+ current is enhanced by zinterol via beta(1)-adrenoceptors, and is reduced in TG4 mice overexpressing the human beta(2)-adrenoceptor

1 The functional coupling of B-2-adrenoceptors (beta (2)-ARs) to murine L-type Ca2+ current (I-Ca(L)) was investigated with two different approaches. The beta (2)-AR signalling cascade was activated either with the beta (2)-AR selective agonist zinterol (myocytes from wild-type mice), or by spontaneously active, unoccupied beta (2)-ARs (myocytes from TG4 mice with 435 fold overexpression of human beta (2)-ARs). Ca2+ and Ba2+ currents were recorded in the whole-cell and cell-attached configuration of the patch- clamp technique, respectively. 2 Zinterol (10 muM) significantly increased I-Ca(L) amplitude of wild-type myocytes by 19+/-5%, and this effect was markedly enhanced after inactivation of Gi-proteins with pertussis-toxin (PTX; 76+/-13% increase). However, the effect of zinterol was entirely mediated by the beta (1)-AR subtype, since it was blocked by the beta (1)-AR selective antagonist CGP 20712A (300 nM). The beta (2)-AR selective antagonist ICI 118,551 (50 nM) did not affect the response of I-Ca(L) to zinterol. 3 In myocytes with beta (2)-AR overexpression I-Ca(L) was not stimulated by the activated signalling cascade. On the contrary, I-Ca(L) was lower in TG4 myocytes and a significant reduction of single-channel activity was identified as a reason for the lower whole-cell I-Ca(L). The beta (2)-AR inverse agonist ICI 118,551 did not further decrease I-Ca(L). PTX-treatment increased current amplitude to values found in control myocytes. 4 In conclusion, there is no evidence for beta (2)-AR mediated increases of I-Ca(L) in wild-type mouse ventricular myocytes. Inactivation of Gi-proteins does not unmask beta (2)-AR responses to zinterol, but augments beta (1)-AR mediated increases of I-Ca(L). In the mouse model of beta (2)-AR overexpression I-Ca(L) is reduced due to tonic activation of Gi-proteins.

Cost of malaria control in China: Henan's consolidation programme from community and government perspectives

Objective To assist with strategic planning for the eradication,of malaria in Henan Province, China, which reached the consolidation phase of malaria control in 1992, when only 318 malaria cases were reported, Methods We conducted a prospective two-year study of the costs for Henan's malaria control programme. We used a cost model that could also be applied to other malaria programmes in-mainland China, and analysed the cost of the three components of Henan's malaria programme. suspected malaria case management,, vector surveillance,,and population blood surveys. Primary cost data were collected from the government, and data on suspected malaria patient's were collected in two malaria counties (population 2 093 100). We enlisted the help of 260 village doctors. in six-townships or former communities (population 247 762), and studied all 12 315 reported cases of suspected malaria in catchment areas in 1994 and 1995. Findings The average-annual government investment in malaria control was estimated to be US$ 111 516 (case-management 59%; active blood surveys 25%;vector surveillance 12%; and contingencies and special projects 4%). The average cost (direct and indirect) for-patients seeking-treatment for suspected malaria was US$ 3.48, equivalent,to 10 days' income for rural residents. Each suspected malaria case cost the government an, average of US$ 0.78. Conclusion Further cuts in government funding will increase future costs, when epidemic malaria returns; investment in malaria control should therefore continue at least at current levels,of US$ 0.03 per person a risk.

A framework for extreme-event control in wastewater treatment

In this paper an approach to extreme event control in wastewater treatment plant operation by use of automatic supervisory control is discussed. The framework presented is based on the fact that different operational conditions manifest themselves as clusters in a multivariate measurement space. These clusters are identified and linked to specific and corresponding events by use of principal component analysis and fuzzy c-means clustering. A reduced system model is assigned to each type of extreme event and used to calculate appropriate local controller set points. In earlier work we have shown that this approach is applicable to wastewater treatment control using look-up tables to determine current set points. In this work we focus on the automatic determination of appropriate set points by use of steady state and dynamic predictions. The performance of a relatively simple steady-state supervisory controller is compared with that of a model predictive supervisory controller. Also, a look-up table approach is included in the comparison, as it provides a simple and robust alternative to the steady-state and model predictive controllers, The methodology is illustrated in a simulation study.

Review and future directions in the modelling and control of continuous drum granulation

Many granulation plants operate well below design capacity, suffering from high recycle rates and even periodic instabilities. This behaviour cannot be fully predicted using the present models. The main objective of the paper is to provide an overview of the current status of model development for granulation processes and suggest future directions for research and development. The end-use of the models is focused on the optimal design and control of granulation plants using the improved predictions of process dynamics. The development of novel models involving mechanistically based structural switching methods is proposed in the paper. A number of guidelines are proposed for the selection of control relevant model structures. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Mathematical modelling of schistosomiasis japonica: comparison of control strategies in the People's Republic of China

We present the first mathematical model on the transmission dynamics of Schistosoma japonicum. The work extends Barbour's classic model of schistosome transmission. It allows for the mammalian host heterogeneity characteristic of the S. japonicum life cycle, and solves the problem of under-specification of Barbour's model by the use of Chinese data we are collecting on human-bovine transmission in the Poyang Lake area of Jiangxi Province in China. The model predicts that in the lake/marshland areas of the Yangtze River basin: (1) once-early mass chemotherapy of humans is little better than twice-yearly mass chemotherapy in reducing human prevalence. Depending on the heterogeneity of prevalence within the population, targeted treatment of high prevalence groups, with lower overall coverage, can be more effective than mass treatment with higher overall coverage. Treatment confers a short term benefit only, with prevalence rising to endemic levels once chemotherapy programs are stopped (2) depending on the relative contributions of bovines and humans, bovine treatment can benefit humans almost as much as human treatment. Like human treatment, bovine treatment confers a short-term benefit. A combination of human and bovine treatment will dramatically reduce human prevalence and maintains the reduction for a longer period of time than treatment of a single host, although human prevalence rises once treatment ceases; (3) assuming 75% coverage of bovines, a bovine vaccine which acts on worm fecundity must have about 75% efficacy to reduce the reproduction rate below one and ensure mid-term reduction and long-term elimination of the parasite. Such a vaccination program should be accompanied by an initial period of human treatment to instigate a short-term reduction in prevalence, following which the reduction is enhanced by vaccine effects; (4) if the bovine vaccine is only 45% efficacious (the level of current prototype vaccines) it will lower the endemic prevalence, but will not result in elimination. If it is accompanied by an initial period of human treatment and by a 45% improvement in human sanitation or a 30% reduction in contaminated water contact by humans, elimination is then possible. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.