El Nino and arboviral disease prediction

Recent El Nino events have stimulated interest in the development of modeling techniques to forecast extremes of climate and related health events. Previous studies have documented associations between specific climate variables (particularly temperature and rainfall) and outbreaks of arboviral disease. In some countries, such diseases are sensitive to Fl Nino. Here we describe a climate-based model for the prediction of Ross River virus epidemics in Australia. From a literature search and data on case notifications, we determined in which years there were epidemics of Ross River virus in southern Australia between 1928 and 1998. Predictor variables were monthly Southern Oscillation index values for the year of an epidemic or lagged by 1 year. We found that in southeastern states, epidemic years were well predicted by monthly Southern Oscillation index values in January and September in the previous year. The model forecasts that there is a high probability of epidemic Ross River virus in the southern states of Australia in 1999. We conclude that epidemics of arboviral disease can, at least in principle, be predicted on the basis of climate relationships.

Millennial and orbital variations of El Nino/Southern Oscillation and high-latitude climate in the last glacial period

The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is believed to have operated continuously over the last glacial interglacial cycle(1). ENSO variability has been suggested to be linked to millennial-scale oscillations in North Atlantic climate during that time(2,3), but the proposals disagree on whether increased frequency of El Nino events, the warm phase of ENSO, was linked to North Atlantic warm or cold periods. Here we present a high-resolution record of surface moisture, based on the degree of peat humification and the ratio of sedges to grass, from northern Queensland, Australia, covering the past 45,000 yr. We observe millennial-scale dry periods, indicating periods of frequent El Nino events ( summer precipitation declines in El Nino years in northeastern Australia). We find that these dry periods are correlated to the Dansgaard - Oeschger events - millennial-scale warm events in the North Atlantic climate record - although no direct atmospheric connection from the North Atlantic to our site can be invoked. Additionally, we find climatic cycles at a semiprecessional timescale (, 11,900 yr). We suggest that climate variations in the tropical Pacific Ocean on millennial as well as orbital timescales, which determined precipitation in northeastern Australia, also exerted an influence on North Atlantic climate through atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections.

Recent advances in our knowledge of the Myxozoa

In the last few years two factors have helped to significantly advance our understanding of the Myxozoa. First, the phenomenal increase in fin fish aquaculture in the 1990s has lead to the increased importance of these parasites; in rum this has lead to intensified research efforts, which have increased knowledge of the development, diagnosis, and pathogenesis of myxozoans. The hallmark discovery in the 1980s that the life cycle of Myxobolus cerebralis requires development of an actinosporean stage in the Oligochaete. Tubifex tubifex, led to the elucidation of the life cycles of several other myxozoans. Also, the life cycle and taxonomy of the enigmatic PKX myxozoan has been resolved: it is the alternate stage of the unusual myxozoan. Tetracapsula bryosalmonae, from bryozoans. The 18S rDNA gene of many species has been sequenced, and here we add 22 new sequences to the data set. Phylogenetic analyses using all these sequences indicate that: 1) the Myxozoa are closely related to Cnidaria (also supported by morphological data), 2) marine taxa at the genus level branch separately from genera that usually infect freshwater fishes; 3) taxa cluster more by development and tissue location than by spore morphology; 4) the tetracapsulids branched off early in myxozoan evolution, perhaps reflected by their having bryozoan. rather than annelid hosts; 5) the morphology of actinosporeans offers little information for determining their myxosporean counterparts (assuming that they exist), and 6) the marine actinosporeans from Australia appear to form a clade within the platysporinid myxosporeans. Ribosomal DNA sequences have also enabled development of diagnostic tests for myxozoans. PCR and in situ hybridisation tests based on rDNA sequences have been developed for Myxobolus cerebralis. Ceratomyxa shasta. Kudoa spp,, and Tetracapsula bryosalmonae (PKX). Lectin-based and antibody tests have also been developed for certain myxozoans, such as PKX and C. shasta. We also review important diseases caused by myxozoans. which are emerging or re-emerging. Epizootics of whirling disease in wild rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) have recently been reported throughout the Rocky Mountain states of the USA. With a dramatic increase in aquaculture of fishes using marine netpens, several marine myxozoans have been recognized or elevated in status as pathological agents. Kudoa thyrsites infections have caused severe post-harvest myoliquefaction in pen-reared Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar), and Ceratomyxa spp., Sphaerospora spp., and Myxidium leei cause disease in pen-reared sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax) and sea bream species (family Sparidae) in Mediterranean countries.

Valuing ecological functions of biodiversity in changbaishan mountain biosphere reserve in northeast china

Conservation of biodiversity can generate considerable indirect economic value and this is being increasingly recognized in China. For a forest ecosystem type of a nature reserve, the most important of its values are its ecological functions which provide human beings and other living things with beneficial environmental services. These services include water conservancy, soil protection, CO2 fixation and O-2 release, nutrient cycling, pollutant decomposition, and disease and pest control. Based on a case study in Changbaishan Mountain Biosphere Reserve in Northeast China, this paper provides a monetary valuation of these services by using opportunity cost and alternative cost methods. Using such an approach, this reserve is valued at 510.11 million yuan (USD 61.68 mill.) per year, 10 times higher than the opportunity cost (51.78 mill. yuan/ha.a) for regular timber production. While China has heeded United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP)'s call for economic evaluation of ecological functions, the assessment techniques used need to be improved in China and in the West for reasons mentioned.