Diversification economies and specialisation efficiencies in a mixed food and coffee smallholder farming system in Papua New Guinea

Smallholder farming systems in Papua New Guinea are characterised by an integrated set of cash cropping and subsistence food cropping activities. In the Highlands provinces, the subsistence food crop sub-system is dominated by sweet potato production. Coffee dominates the cash cropping sub-system, but a limited number of food crops are also grown for cash sale. The dynamics between sub-systems can influence the scope for complementarity between, and technical efficiency of, their operations, especially in light of the seasonality of demand for household labour and management inputs within the farming system. A crucial element of these dynamic processes is diversification into commercial agricultural production, which can influence factor productivity and the efficiency of crop production where smallholders maintain a strong production base in subsistence foods. In this study we use survey data from households engaged in coffee and food crop production in the Benabena district of Eastern Highlands Province to derive technical efficiency indices for each household over two years. A stochastic input distance function approach is used to establish whether diversification economies exist and whether specialisation in coffee, subsistence food or cash food production significantly influences technical efficiency on the sampled smallholdings. Diversification economics are weakly evident between subsistence food production and both coffee and cash food production, but diseconomies of diversification are discerned between coffee and cash food production. A number of factors are tested for their effects on technical efficiency. Significant technical efficiency gains are made from diversification among broad cropping enterprises.

A simple regional-scale model for forecasting sorghum yield across North-Eastern Australia

Sorghum is the main dryland summer crop in NE Australia and a number of agricultural businesses would benefit from an ability to forecast production likelihood at regional scale. In this study we sought to develop a simple agro-climatic modelling approach for predicting shire (statistical local area) sorghum yield. Actual shire yield data, available for the period 1983-1997 from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, were used to train the model. Shire yield was related to a water stress index (SI) that was derived from the agro-climatic model. The model involved a simple fallow and crop water balance that was driven by climate data available at recording stations within each shire. Parameters defining the soil water holding capacity, maximum number of sowings (MXNS) in any year, planting rainfall requirement, and critical period for stress during the crop cycle were optimised as part of the model fitting procedure. Cross-validated correlations (CVR) ranged from 0.5 to 0.9 at shire scale. When aggregated to regional and national scales, 78-84% of the annual variation in sorghum yield was explained. The model was used to examine trends in sorghum productivity and the approach to using it in an operational forecasting system was outlined. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The extended metamorphosis of a complete bipartite design into a cycle system

A K-t,K-t-design of order n is an edge-disjoint decomposition of K-n into copies of K-t,K-t. When t is odd, an extended metamorphosis of a K-t,K-t-design of order n into a 2t-cycle system of order n is obtained by taking (t - 1)/2 edge-disjoint cycles of length 2t from each K-t,K-t block, and rearranging all the remaining 1-factors in each K-t,K-t block into further 2t-cycles. The 'extended' refers to the fact that as many subgraphs isomorphic to a 2t-cycle as possible are removed from each K-t,K-t block, rather than merely one subgraph. In this paper an extended metamorphosis of a K-t,K-t-design of order congruent to 1 (mod 4t(2)) into a 2t-cycle system of the same order is given for all odd t > 3. A metamorphosis of a 2-fold K-t,K-t-design of any order congruent to 1 (mod 4t(2)) into a 2t-cycle system of the same order is also given, for all odd t > 3. (The case t = 3 appeared in Ars Combin. 64 (2002) 65-80.) When t is even, the graph K-t,K-t is easily seen to contain t/2 edge-disjoint cycles of length 2t, and so the metamorphosis in that case is straightforward. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An expert system on design of liquid-retaining structures with blackboard architecture

The design of liquid-retaining structures involves many decisions to be made by the designer based on rules of thumb, heuristics, judgement, codes of practice and previous experience. Structural design problems are often ill structured and there is a need to develop programming environments that can incorporate engineering judgement along with algorithmic tools. Recent developments in artificial intelligence have made it possible to develop an expert system that can provide expert advice to the user in the selection of design criteria and design parameters. This paper introduces the development of an expert system in the design of liquid-retaining structures using blackboard architecture. An expert system shell, Visual Rule Studio, is employed to facilitate the development of this prototype system. It is a coupled system combining symbolic processing with traditional numerical processing. The expert system developed is based on British Standards Code of Practice BS8007. Explanations are made to assist inexperienced designers or civil engineering students to learn how to design liquid-retaining structures effectively and sustainably in their design practices. The use of this expert system in disseminating heuristic knowledge and experience to practitioners and engineering students is discussed.

A knowledge-based system for liquid retaining structure design with blackboard architecture

Owing to the high degree of vulnerability of liquid retaining structures to corrosion problems, there are stringent requirements in its design against cracking. In this paper, a prototype knowledge-based system is developed and implemented for the design of liquid retaining structures based on the blackboard architecture. A commercially available expert system shell VISUAL RULE STUDIO working as an ActiveX Designer under the VISUAL BASIC programming environment is employed. Hybrid knowledge representation approach with production rules and procedural methods under object-oriented programming are used to represent the engineering heuristics and design knowledge of this domain. It is demonstrated that the blackboard architecture is capable of integrating different knowledge together in an effective manner. The system is tailored to give advice to users regarding preliminary design, loading specification and optimized configuration selection of this type of structure. An example of application is given to illustrate the capabilities of the prototype system in transferring knowledge on liquid retaining structure to novice engineers. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Efficiency, costs and trade-offs in marine reserve system design

With marine biodiversity conservation the primary goal for reserve planning initiatives, a site's conservation potential is typically evaluated on the basis of the biological and physical features it contains. By comparison, socio-economic information is seldom a formal consideration of the reserve system design problem and generally limited to an assessment of threats, vulnerability or compatibility with surrounding uses. This is perhaps surprising given broad recognition that the success of reserve establishment is highly dependent on widespread stakeholder and community support. Using information on the spatial distribution and intensity of commercial rock lobster catch in South Australia, we demonstrate the capacity of mathematical reserve selection procedures to integrate socio-economic and biophysical information for marine reserve system design. Analyses of trade-offs highlight the opportunities to design representative, efficient and practical marine reserve systems that minimise potential loss to commercial users. We found that the objective of minimising the areal extent of the reserve system was barely compromised by incorporating economic design constraints. With a small increase in area (< 3%) and boundary length (< 10%), the economic impact of marine reserves on the commercial rock lobster fishery was reduced by more than a third. We considered also how a reserve planner might prioritise conservation areas using information on a planning units selection frequency. We found that selection frequencies alone were not a reliable guide for the selection of marine reserve systems, but could be used with approaches such as summed irreplaceability to direct conservation effort for efficient marine reserve design.