Spatio-temporal scanning and statistical test of the accelerating moment release (AMR) model using Australian earthquake data

The Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) preceding earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in Australia that occurred during the last 20 years was analyzed to test the Critical Point Hypothesis. Twelve earthquakes in the catalog were chosen based on a criterion for the number of nearby events. Results show that seven sequences with numerous events recorded leading up to the main earthquake exhibited accelerating moment release. Two occurred near in time and space to other earthquakes preceded by AM R. The remaining three sequences had very few events in the catalog so the lack of AMR detected in the analysis may be related to catalog incompleteness. Spatio-temporal scanning of AMR parameters shows that 80% of the areas in which AMR occurred experienced large events. In areas of similar background seismicity with no large events, 10 out of 12 cases exhibit no AMR, and two others are false alarms where AMR was observed but no large event followed. The relationship between AMR and Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) was studied. Both methods predict similar critical region sizes, however, the critical point time using AMR is slightly earlier than the time of the critical point LURR anomaly.

Recommendations and guidelines for the performance of accurate heat transfer measurements in rapid forming processes

The published requirements for accurate measurement of heat transfer at the interface between two bodies have been reviewed. A strategy for reliable measurement has been established, based on the depth of the temperature sensors in the medium, on the inverse method parameters and on the time response of the sensors. Sources of both deterministic and stochastic errors have been investigated and a method to evaluate them has been proposed, with the help of a normalisation technique. The key normalisation variables are the duration of the heat input and the maximum heat flux density. An example of application of this technique in the field of high pressure die casting is demonstrated. The normalisation study, coupled with previous determination of the heat input duration, makes it possible to determine the optimum location for the sensors, along with an acceptable sampling rate and the thermocouples critical response-time (as well as eventual filter characteristics). Results from the gauge are used to assess the suitability of the initial design choices. In particular the unavoidable response time of the thermocouples is estimated by comparison with the normalised simulation. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Drop formation and breakup of low viscosity elastic fluids: Effects of molecular weight and concentration

The dynamics of drop formation and pinch-off have been investigated for a series of low viscosity elastic fluids possessing similar shear viscosities, but differing substantially in elastic properties. On initial approach to the pinch region, the viscoelastic fluids all exhibit the same global necking behavior that is observed for a Newtonian fluid of equivalent shear viscosity. For these low viscosity dilute polymer solutions, inertial and capillary forces form the dominant balance in this potential flow regime, with the viscous force being negligible. The approach to the pinch point, which corresponds to the point of rupture for a Newtonian fluid, is extremely rapid in such solutions, with the sudden increase in curvature producing very large extension rates at this location. In this region the polymer molecules are significantly extended, causing a localized increase in the elastic stresses, which grow to balance the capillary pressure. This prevents the necked fluid from breaking off, as would occur in the equivalent Newtonian fluid. Alternatively, a cylindrical filament forms in which elastic stresses and capillary pressure balance, and the radius decreases exponentially with time. A (0+1)-dimensional finitely extensible nonlinear elastic dumbbell theory incorporating inertial, capillary, and elastic stresses is able to capture the basic features of the experimental observations. Before the critical "pinch time" t(p), an inertial-capillary balance leads to the expected 2/3-power scaling of the minimum radius with time: R-min similar to(t(p)-t)(2/3). However, the diverging deformation rate results in large molecular deformations and rapid crossover to an elastocapillary balance for times t>t(p). In this region, the filament radius decreases exponentially with time R-min similar to exp[(t(p)-t)/lambda(1)], where lambda(1) is the characteristic time constant of the polymer molecules. Measurements of the relaxation times of polyethylene oxide solutions of varying concentrations and molecular weights obtained from high speed imaging of the rate of change of filament radius are significantly higher than the relaxation times estimated from Rouse-Zimm theory, even though the solutions are within the dilute concentration region as determined using intrinsic viscosity measurements. The effective relaxation times exhibit the expected scaling with molecular weight but with an additional dependence on the concentration of the polymer in solution. This is consistent with the expectation that the polymer molecules are in fact highly extended during the approach to the pinch region (i.e., prior to the elastocapillary filament thinning regime) and subsequently as the filament is formed they are further extended by filament stretching at a constant rate until full extension of the polymer coil is achieved. In this highly extended state, intermolecular interactions become significant, producing relaxation times far above theoretical predictions for dilute polymer solutions under equilibrium conditions. (C) 2006 American Institute of Physics

Timing analysis of assembler code control-flow paths

Timinganalysis of assembler code is essential to achieve the strongest possible guarantee of correctness for safety-critical, real-time software. Previous work has shown how timingconstrain ts on controlflow paths through high-level language programs can be formalised using the semantics of the statements comprisingthe path. We extend these results to assembler-level code where it becomes possible to not only determine timingconstrain ts, but also to verify them against the known execution times for each instruction. A minimal formal model is developed with both a weakest liberal precondition and a strongest postcondition semantics. However, despite the formalism’s simplicity, it is shown that complex timingb ehaviour associated with instruction pipeliningand iterative code can be modelled accurately.

Expression profiling of purified mouse gonadal somatic cells during the critical time window of sex determination reveals novel candidate genes for human sexual dysgenesis syndromes

Despite the identification of SRY as the testis-determining gene in mammals, the genetic interactions controlling the earliest steps of male sex determination remain poorly understood. In particular, the molecular lesions underlying a high proportion of human XY gonadal dysgenesis, XX maleness and XX true hermaphroditism remain undiscovered. A number of screens have identified candidate genes whose expression is modulated during testis or ovary differentiation in mice, but these screens have used whole gonads, consisting of multiple cell types, or stages of gonadal development well beyond the time of sex determination. We describe here a novel reporter mouse line that expresses enhanced green fluorescent protein under the control of an Sf1 promoter fragment, marking Sertoli and granulosa cell precursors during the critical period of sex determination. These cells were purified from gonads of male and female transgenic embryos at 10.5 dpc (shortly after Sry transcription is activated) and 11.5 dpc (when Sox9 transcription begins), and their transcriptomes analysed using Affymetrix genome arrays. We identified 266 genes, including Dhh, Fgf9 and Ptgds, that were upregulated and 50 genes that were downregulated in 11.5 dpc male somatic gonad cells only, and 242 genes, including Fst, that were upregulated in 11.5 dpc female somatic gonad cells only. The majority of these genes are novel genes that lack identifiable homology, and several human orthologues were found to map to chromosomal loci implicated in disorders of sexual development. These genes represent an important resource with which to piece together the earliest steps of sex determination and gonad development, and provide new candidates for mutation searching in human sexual dysgenesis syndromes.

All in Good Time: Exploring Change in Neanderthal Behavioural Complexity

Since their discovery 150 years ago, Neanderthals have been considered incapable of behavioural change and innovation. Traditional synchronic approaches to the study of Neanderthal behaviour have perpetuated this view and shaped our understanding of their lifeways and eventual extinction. In this thesis I implement an innovative diachronic approach to the analysis of Neanderthal faunal extraction, technology and symbolic behaviour as contained in the archaeological record of the critical period between 80,000 and 30,000 years BP. The thesis demonstrates patterns of change in Neanderthal behaviour which are at odds with traditional perspectives and which are consistent with an interpretation of increasing behavioural complexity over time, an idea that has been suggested but never thoroughly explored in Neanderthal archaeology. Demonstrating an increase in behavioural complexity in Neanderthals provides much needed new data with which to fuel the debate over the behavioural capacities of Neanderthals and the first appearance of Modern Human Behaviour in Europe. It supports the notion that Neanderthal populations were active agents of behavioural innovation prior to the arrival of Anatomically Modern Humans in Europe and, ultimately, that they produced an early Upper Palaeolithic cultural assemblage (the Châtelperronian) independent of modern humans. Overall, this thesis provides an initial step towards the development of a quantitative approach to measuring behavioural complexity which provides fresh insights into the cognitive and behavioural capabilities of Neanderthals.

The critical power function is dependent on the duration of the predictive exercise tests chosen

The linear relationship between work accomplished (W-lim) and time to exhaustion (t(lim)) can be described by the equation: W-lim = a + CP.t(lim). Critical power (CP) is the slope of this line and is thought to represent a maximum rate of ATP synthesis without exhaustion, presumably an inherent characteristic of the aerobic energy system. The present investigation determined whether the choice of predictive tests would elicit significant differences in the estimated CP. Ten female physical education students completed, in random order and on consecutive days, five art-out predictive tests at preselected constant-power outputs. Predictive tests were performed on an electrically-braked cycle ergometer and power loadings were individually chosen so as to induce fatigue within approximately 1-10 mins. CP was derived by fitting the linear W-lim-t(lim) regression and calculated three ways: 1) using the first, third and fifth W-lim-t(lim) coordinates (I-135), 2) using coordinates from the three highest power outputs (I-123; mean t(lim) = 68-193 s) and 3) using coordinates from the lowest power outputs (I-345; mean t(lim) = 193-485 s). Repeated measures ANOVA revealed that CPI123 (201.0 +/- 37.9W) > CPI135 (176.1 +/- 27.6W) > CPI345 (164.0 +/- 22.8W) (P < 0.05). When the three sets of data were used to fit the hyperbolic Power-t(lim) regression, statistically significant differences between each CP were also found (P < 0.05). The shorter the predictive trials, the greater the slope of the W-lim-t(lim) regression; possibly because of the greater influence of 'aerobic inertia' on these trials. This may explain why CP has failed to represent a maximal, sustainable work rate. The present findings suggest that if CP is to represent the highest power output that an individual can maintain for a very long time without fatigue then CP should be calculated over a range of predictive tests in which the influence of aerobic inertia is minimised.

Critical values for unit root and cointegration test statistics - the use of response surface equations

This note considers the value of surface response equations which can be used to calculate critical values for a range of unit root and cointegration tests popular in applied economic research.

Overview, critical assessment, and conservation implications of koala distribution and abundance

Regional and national surveys provide a broadscale description of the koala's present distribution in Australia. A detailed understanding of its distribution is precluded, however, by past and continuing land clearing across large parts of the koala's range. Koala population density increased in some regions during the late 1800s and then declined dramatically in the early 1900s. The decline was associated with habitat loss, hunting, disease, fire, and drought. Declines are continuing in Queensland and New South Wales. In contrast, dense koala populations in habitat isolates in Victoria and South Australia are managed to reduce population size and browse damage. Current understanding of koala distribution and abundance suggests that the species does not meet Australian criteria as endangered or vulnerable fauna. Its conservation status needs to be reviewed, however, in light of the extensive land clearing in New South Wales and Queensland since the last (1980s) broadscale surveys. Consequently, we recommend that broadacre clearing by curtailed in New South Wales and Queensland and that regular, comprehensive, standardized, national koala surveys be undertaken. Given the fragmentation of koala habitat and regional differences in the status of the koala, we recommended that studies on regional variation in the koala be intensified and that koala ecology in fragmented and naturally restricted habitats be developed. More generally, the National Koala Conservation Strategy should be implemented.

Accelerating seismic energy release and evolution of event time and size statistics: Results from two heterogeneous cellular automaton models

The evolution of event time and size statistics in two heterogeneous cellular automaton models of earthquake behavior are studied and compared to the evolution of these quantities during observed periods of accelerating seismic energy release Drier to large earthquakes. The two automata have different nearest neighbor laws, one of which produces self-organized critical (SOC) behavior (PSD model) and the other which produces quasi-periodic large events (crack model). In the PSD model periods of accelerating energy release before large events are rare. In the crack model, many large events are preceded by periods of accelerating energy release. When compared to randomized event catalogs, accelerating energy release before large events occurs more often than random in the crack model but less often than random in the PSD model; it is easier to tell the crack and PSD model results apart from each other than to tell either model apart from a random catalog. The evolution of event sizes during the accelerating energy release sequences in all models is compared to that of observed sequences. The accelerating energy release sequences in the crack model consist of an increase in the rate of events of all sizes, consistent with observations from a small number of natural cases, however inconsistent with a larger number of cases in which there is an increase in the rate of only moderate-sized events. On average, no increase in the rate of events of any size is seen before large events in the PSD model.

Sonification supports eyes-free respiratory monitoring and task time-sharing

Three experiments explored the effectiveness of continuous auditory displays, or sonifications, for conveying information about a simulated anesthetized patient's respiration. Experiment 1 established an effective respiratory sonification. Experiment 2 showed an effect of expertise in the use of respiratory sonification and revealed that some apparent differences in sonification effectiveness could be accounted for by response bias. Experiment 3 showed that sonification helps anesthesiologists to maintain high levels of awareness of the simulated patient's state while performing other tasks more effectively than when relying upon visual monitoring of the simulated patient state. Overall, sonification of patient physiology beyond traditional pulse oximetry appears to be a viable and useful adjunct to visual monitors. Actual and potential applications of this research include monitoring in a wide variety of busy critical care contexts.

Ramp and constant power trials produce equivalent critical power estimates

The standard critical power test protocol on the cycle prescribes a series of trials to exhaustion, each at a different but constant power setting. Recently the protocol has been modified and applied to a series of trials to exhaustion each at a different ramp incremental rate. This study was undertaken to compare critical power and anaerobic work capacity estimates in the same group of subjects when derived from the two protocols. Ten male subjects of mixed athletic ability cycled to exhaustion on eight occasions in randomized order over a 3-wk period. Four trials were performed at differing constant power settings and four trials on differing ramp incremental rates. Both critical power and anaerobic work capacity were estimated for each subject by curve fitting of the ramp model and of three versions of the constant power model. After adjusting for inter-subject variability, no significant differences were detected between critical power estimates or between anaerobic work capacity estimates from any model formulation or from the two protocols. It is concluded that both the ramp and constant power protocols produce equivalent estimates for critical power and anaerobic work capacity.

Pharmacokinetics of ciprofloxacin in ICU patients on continuous veno-venous haemodiafiltration

Objectives: To investigate the pharmacokinetics of intravenous ciprofloxacin 200 mg every 8 h in critically ill patients on continuous veno-venous haemodiafiltration (CVVHDF), one form of continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT). Design and setting: Open, prospective clinical study in a multidisciplinary, intensive care unit in a university-affiliated tertiary referral hospital. Patients: Sis critically ill patients with acute renal failure on CVVHDF. Interventions: Timed blood and ultrafiltrate samples were collected to allow pharmacokinetics and clearances to be calculated of initial and subsequent doses of 200 mg intravenous ciprofloxacin. CVVHD was performed with 1 l/h of dialysate and 2 l/h of predilution filtration solution, producing 3 lih of dialysis effluent. The blood was pumped at 200 ml/min using a Gambro BMM-10 blood pump through a Hospal AN69HF haemofilter,. Measurements and results: Ten pharmacokinetic profiles were measured. The CVVHDF displayed a urea clearance of 42 +/- 3 ml/min, and removed ciprofloxacin with a clearance of 37 +/- 7 ml/min. This rate was 2-2.5 greater than previously published for ciprofloxacin in other forms of CRRT. On average the CVVHDF was responsible for clearing a fifth of all ciprofloxacin eliminated (21 +/- 10%). The total body clearance of ciprofloxacin was 12.2 +/- 4.3 l/h. The trough concentration following the initial dose was 0.7 +/- 0.3 mg/l. The area under the plasma concentration time curves over a 24-h period ranged from 21 to 55 mg .h l(-1). Conclusions: Intravenous ciprofloxacin 600 mg/day in critically ill patients using this form of CRRT produced adequate plasma levels for many resistant microbes found in intensive care units.

Reduced Red Cell 2,3-Diphosphoglycerate Concentrations in Critical Illness without Decreased In Vivo P50

We investigated whether red cell 2,3-diphosphoglycerate (2,3-DPG) concentrations are reduced in critical illness, whether acidaemia, hypophosphataemia or anaemia influence 2,3-DPG, and whether there is any net effect on in vivo P50. Twenty healthy, non-smoking, male volunteers were compared with 20 male intensive care patients with APACHE 2 scores > 20 on the preceding day. Those transfused in this time were excluded. Venous red cell 2,3-DPG concentrations were measured in both groups. In the patient group, routine multichannel biochemical profile and arterial blood gas analysis were also performed and in vivo P50 calculated. The mean 2,3-DPG concentration was significantly lower in the patient group than in the controls (4.2 +/-1.3 mmoll/l vs 4.9 +/-0.5 mmol/l, P=0.016). The patients were well oxygenated (lowest arterial PO2=75 mm Hg) and showed a tendency to acidaemia (median pH 7.37, range 7.06 to 7.48) and anaemia (median haemoglobin concentration 113 g/l, range 89 to 154 g/l). By linear regression of patient data, pH had a significant effect on 2,3-DPG concentrations (r=0.6, P=0.011). Haemoglobin and phosphate concentrations did not, but there were few abnormal phosphate values. There was no correlation between 2,3-DPG concentrations and in vivo P50 (r(2) less than or equal to 0.08). We conclude that 2,3-DPG concentrations were reduced in a broad group of critically ill patients. Although this would normally reduce the P50, the reduction was primarily linked with acidaemia, which increases the P50. Overall, there was no net effect on the P50 and thus no affinity-related decrease in tissue oxygenation.

Patchy populations in stochastic environments: Critical number of patches for persistence

We introduce a model for the dynamics of a patchy population in a stochastic environment and derive a criterion for its persistence. This criterion is based on the geometric mean (GM) through time of the spatial-arithmetic mean of growth rates. For the population to persist, the GM has to be greater than or equal to1. The GM increases with the number of patches (because the sampling error is reduced) and decreases with both the variance and the spatial covariance of growth rates. We derive analytical expressions for the minimum number of patches (and the maximum harvesting rate) required for the persistence of the population. As the magnitude of environmental fluctuations increases, the number of patches required for persistence increases, and the fraction of individuals that can be harvested decreases. The novelty of our approach is that we focus on Malthusian local population dynamics with high dispersal and strong environmental variability from year to year. Unlike previous models of patchy populations that assume an infinite number of patches, we focus specifically on the effect that the number of patches has on population persistence. Our work is therefore directly relevant to patchily distributed organisms that are restricted to a small number of habitat patches.