Protein fold recognition without Boltzmann statistics or explicit physical basis

We present a fast method for finding optimal parameters for a low-resolution (threading) force field intended to distinguish correct from incorrect folds for a given protein sequence. In contrast to other methods, the parameterization uses information from >10(7) misfolded structures as well as a set of native sequence-structure pairs. In addition to testing the resulting force field's performance on the protein sequence threading problem, results are shown that characterize the number of parameters necessary for effective structure recognition.

Serious criminal offending and mental disorder - Case linkage study

Background A relationship exists between mental disorder and offending behaviours but the nature and extent of the association remains in doubt. Method Those convicted in the higher courts of Victoria between 1993 and 1995 had their pyschiatric history explored by case linkage to a register listing virtually all contacts with the public psychiatric services. Results Prior psychiatric contact was found in 25% or offenders, but the personality disorder and substance misuse accounted for much of this relationship. Schizophrenia and affective disorders were also over-represented, particularly those with coexisting substance misuse. Conclusions The increased offending in schizophrenia and affective illness is modest and may often be mediated by coexisting substance misuse. The risk of a serious crime being committed by someone with a major mental illness is small and does not justify subjecting them, as a group, to either increased institutional containment or greater coercion.

Critical values for unit root and cointegration test statistics - the use of response surface equations

This note considers the value of surface response equations which can be used to calculate critical values for a range of unit root and cointegration tests popular in applied economic research.

Community care and criminal offending in schizophrenia

Background The introduction of community care in psychiatry is widely thought to have resulted in more offending among the seriously mentally ill. This view affects public policy towards and public perceptions of such people. We investigated the association between the introduction of community care and the pattern of offending in patients with schizophrenia in Victoria, Australia. Methods We established patterns of offending from criminal records in two groups of patients with schizophrenia over their lifetime to date and in the 10 years after their first hospital admission. One group was first admitted in 1975 before major deinstitutionalisation in Victoria, the second group in 1985 when community care was becoming the norm. Each patient was matched to a control, by age, sex, and place of residence to allow for changing patterns of offending over time in the wider community. Findings Compared with controls, significantly more of those with schizophrenia were convicted at least once for ail categories of criminal offending except sexual offences (relative risk of offending in 1975=3.5 [95% CI 2.0-5.5), p=0.001, in 1985=3.0 [1.9-4.9], p=0.001). Among men, more offences were committed in the 1985 group than the 1975 group, but this was matched by a similar increase in convictions among the community controls. Those with schizophrenia who had also received treatment for substance abuse accounted for a disproportionate amount of offending. Analysis of admission data for the patients and the total population of admissions with schizophrenia showed that although there had been an increase of 74 days per annum spent in the community for each of the study population as a whole, first admissions spent only 1 more day in the community in 1985 compared with 1975. Interpretation Increased rates in criminal conviction for those with schizophrenia over the last 20 years are consistent with change in the pattern of offending in the general community. Deinstitutionalisation does not adequately explain such change. Mental-health services should aim to reduce the raised rates of criminal offending associated with schizophrenia, but turning the clock back on community care is unlikely to contribute towards any positive outcome.

Cohort trends in youth suicide in Australia 1964-1997

Objective: This paper examines trends in the rate of suicide among young Australians aged 15-24 years from 1964 to 1997 and presents an age-period-cohort analysis of these trends. Method: Study design consisted of an age-period-cohort analysis of suicide mortality in Australian youth aged between 15 and 24 for the years 1964-1997 inclusive. Data sources were Australian Bureau of Statistics data on: numbers of deaths due to suicide by gender and age at death; and population at risk in each of eight birth cohorts (1940-1944, 1945-1949, 1950-1954, 1955-1959, 1960-1964, 1965-1969, 1970-1974, and 1975-1979). Main outcome measures were population rates of deaths among males and females in each birth cohort attributed to suicide in each year 1964-1997. Results: The rate of suicide deaths among Australian males aged 15-24 years increased from 8.7 per 100 000 in 1964 to 30.9 per 100 000 in 1997, with the rate among females changing little over the period, from 5.2 per 100 000 in 1964 to 7.1 per 100 000 in 1997. While the rate of deaths attributed to suicide increased over the birth cohorts, analyses revealed that these increases were largely due to period effects, with suicide twice as likely among those aged 15-24 years in 1985-1997 than between 1964 and 1969. Conclusions: The rate of youth suicide in Australia has increased since 1964, particularly among males. This increase can largely be attributed to period effects rather than to a cohort effect and has been paralleled by an increased rate of youth suicides internationally and by an increase in other psychosocial problems including psychiatric illness, criminal offending and substance use disorders.

Accelerating seismic energy release and evolution of event time and size statistics: Results from two heterogeneous cellular automaton models

The evolution of event time and size statistics in two heterogeneous cellular automaton models of earthquake behavior are studied and compared to the evolution of these quantities during observed periods of accelerating seismic energy release Drier to large earthquakes. The two automata have different nearest neighbor laws, one of which produces self-organized critical (SOC) behavior (PSD model) and the other which produces quasi-periodic large events (crack model). In the PSD model periods of accelerating energy release before large events are rare. In the crack model, many large events are preceded by periods of accelerating energy release. When compared to randomized event catalogs, accelerating energy release before large events occurs more often than random in the crack model but less often than random in the PSD model; it is easier to tell the crack and PSD model results apart from each other than to tell either model apart from a random catalog. The evolution of event sizes during the accelerating energy release sequences in all models is compared to that of observed sequences. The accelerating energy release sequences in the crack model consist of an increase in the rate of events of all sizes, consistent with observations from a small number of natural cases, however inconsistent with a larger number of cases in which there is an increase in the rate of only moderate-sized events. On average, no increase in the rate of events of any size is seen before large events in the PSD model.

Age and Offending: Characteristics and Criminological Factors

Adolescence is popularly understood as a transitional phase of turbulence and extremes. It is also often associated with 'trouble'. Criminal justice statistics, however, reveal that youth criminality remains a relatively rare phenomenon, less than one percent of the total adolescent population in any given year. This exceptional book is based upon a major Australian research programme to consider the key social factors impacting upon the lives of young people. A sample of 1,300 young people was divided into three major subgroups: a 'control' group, drawn from state secondary schools and closely approximating the general population; a chronically marginalized cohort representing a 'vulnerable group', and a group of offenders, most of whom were incarcerated at the time of the research.