3 resultados para Crime analysis

em University of Queensland eSpace - Australia


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Background: A sharp reduction in heroin supply in Australia in 2001 was followed by a large but transient increase in cocaine use among injecting drug users (IDU) in Sydney. This paper assesses whether the increase in cocaine use among IDU was accompanied by increased rates of violent crime as occurred in the United States in the 1980s. Specifically, the paper aims to examine the impact of increased cocaine use among Sydney IDU upon police incidents of robbery with a weapon, assault and homicide. Methods: Data on cocaine use among IDU was obtained from the Illicit Drug Reporting System (IDRS). Monthly NSW Police incident data on arrests for cocaine possession/ use, robbery offences, homicides, and assaults, were obtained from the Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research. Time series analysis was conducted on the police data series where possible. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with representatives from law enforcement and health agencies about the impacts of cocaine use on crime and policing. Results: There was a significant increase in cocaine use and cocaine possession offences in the months immediately following the reduction in heroin supply. There was also a significant increase in incidents of robbery where weapons were involved. There were no increases in offences involving firearms, homicides or reported assaults. Conclusion: The increased use of cocaine among injecting drug users following the heroin shortage led to increases in violent crime. Other States and territories that also experienced a heroin shortage but did not show any increases in cocaine use did not report any increase in violent crimes. The violent crimes committed did not involve guns, most likely because of its stringent gun laws, in contrast to the experience of American cities that have experienced high rates of cocaine use and violent crime.

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Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design (CPTED) has considerable support among the built environment professions. Yet the underlying assumptions on which it is based have rarely been, effectiveness or efficacy. This paper reports the development and use of a evaluated to assess their of scale that measured the actual levels of incidental CPTED in two residential areas in Gold Coast, Australia. The scale was administered in parallel with a victimization and social attitude survey. Analysis based on the combination of the two suggests that CPTED measures may have some effect on reducing victimization, particularly the kind of CPTED measures that apply to the group of dwellings on a single street, but the effect on fear of crime is surprisingly limited. It also indicates that there is on a single street, but the of potential in the application of such a scale in a wider assessment of the effectiveness of operationalizing CPTED design measures.

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A set of techniques referred to as circular statistics has been developed for the analysis of directional and orientational data. The unit of measure for such data is angular (usually in either degrees or radians), and the statistical distributions underlying the techniques are characterised by their cyclic nature-for example, angles of 359.9 degrees are considered close to angles of 0 degrees. In this paper, we assert that such approaches can be easily adapted to analyse time-of-day and time-of-week data, and in particular daily cycles in the numbers of incidents reported to the police. We begin the paper by describing circular statistics. We then discuss how these may be modified, and demonstrate the approach with some examples for reported incidents in the Cardiff area of Wales. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.