Inflation expectations, interest rates and arbitrary income transfers

Unexpected inflation, disinflation or deflation cause arbitrary income transfers between an economy's borrowers and lenders. This redistribution results from distorted real interest rates that are too high when price level changes are over-predicted and too low when they are under-predicted. This article shows that in Australia's case, inflation expectations were mostly biased upwards throughout the 1990s, according to the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research series and to a new derived series based on bond yields, implying that real interest rates were too high over this time. In turn, this caused substantial arbitrary income transfers from debtors to creditors, estimated to have averaged up to 3 per cent of gross domestic product over the period.

Consumer credit code disclosure: Does it work?

Since 1996 all consumer credit transactions in Australia have been regulated by the Consumer Credit Code. The principal means by which the Code purports to protect consumers and prevent market failure is a detailed and prescriptive disclosure regime. There has been little empirical work done on whether or not such disclosure actually improves consumers’ understanding of their credit contracts. By exposing participants to typical consumer credit documents, this research discovered quite poor comprehension of important features of the relevant transactions. Most significantly, there appeared to be little difference in comprehension when the consumers read contracts which complied with the disclosure requirements of the Code, and when they read contracts which did not. These results cast doubt on the effectiveness of the Code disclosure regime.