Credit assignment: The memory representation of dynamic task events

The experiment examined the influence of memory for prior instances on aircraft conflict detection. Participants saw pairs of similar aircraft repeatedly conflict with each other. Performance improvements suggest that participants credited the conflict status of familiar aircraft pairs to repeated static features such as speed, and dynamic features such as aircraft relative position. Participants missed conflicts when a conflict pair resembled a pair that had repeatedly passed safely. Participants either did not attend to, or interpret, the bearing of aircraft correctly as a result of false memory-based expectations. Implications for instance models and situational awareness in dynamic systems are discussed.

The plausibility of long-wavelength stress correlation or stress magnitude as a mechanism for precursory seismicity: Results from two simple elastic models

Observations of accelerating seismic activity prior to large earthquakes in natural fault systems have raised hopes for intermediate-term eartquake forecasting. If this phenomena does exist, then what causes it to occur? Recent theoretical work suggests that the accelerating seismic release sequence is a symptom of increasing long-wavelength stress correlation in the fault region. A more traditional explanation, based on Reid's elastic rebound theory, argues that an accelerating sequence of seismic energy release could be a consequence of increasing stress in a fault system whose stress moment release is dominated by large events. Both of these theories are examined using two discrete models of seismicity: a Burridge-Knopoff block-slider model and an elastic continuum based model. Both models display an accelerating release of seismic energy prior to large simulated earthquakes. In both models there is a correlation between the rate of seismic energy release with the total root-mean-squared stress and the level of long-wavelength stress correlation. Furthermore, both models exhibit a systematic increase in the number of large events at high stress and high long-wavelength stress correlation levels. These results suggest that either explanation is plausible for the accelerating moment release in the models examined. A statistical model based on the Burridge-Knopoff block-slider is constructed which indicates that stress alone is sufficient to produce accelerating release of seismic energy with time prior to a large earthquake.

Stress correlation function evolution in lattice solid elasto-dynamic models of shear and fracture zones and earthquake prediction

It has been argued that power-law time-to-failure fits for cumulative Benioff strain and an evolution in size-frequency statistics in the lead-up to large earthquakes are evidence that the crust behaves as a Critical Point (CP) system. If so, intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible. However, this hypothesis has not been proven. If the crust does behave as a CP system, stress correlation lengths should grow in the lead-up to large events through the action of small to moderate ruptures and drop sharply once a large event occurs. However this evolution in stress correlation lengths cannot be observed directly. Here we show, using the lattice solid model to describe discontinuous elasto-dynamic systems subjected to shear and compression, that it is for possible correlation lengths to exhibit CP-type evolution. In the case of a granular system subjected to shear, this evolution occurs in the lead-up to the largest event and is accompanied by an increasing rate of moderate-sized events and power-law acceleration of Benioff strain release. In the case of an intact sample system subjected to compression, the evolution occurs only after a mature fracture system has developed. The results support the existence of a physical mechanism for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting and suggest this mechanism is fault-system dependent. This offers an explanation of why accelerating Benioff strain release is not observed prior to all large earthquakes. The results prove the existence of an underlying evolution in discontinuous elasto-dynamic, systems which is capable of providing a basis for forecasting catastrophic failure and earthquakes.

Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching

We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.

Timing and chemistry of fluid-flow events in the Lawn Hill Platform, Northern Australia

Mudrocks and carbonates of the Isa superbasin in the Lawn Hill platform in northern Australia host major base metal sulfide mineralization, including the giant strata-bound Century Zn-Pb deposit. Mineral paragenesis, stable isotope, and K-Ar dating studies demonstrate that long-lived structures such as the Termite Range fault acted as hot fluid conduits several times during the Paleoproterozoic and Mesoproterozoic in response to major tectonic events. Illite and chlorite crystallinity studies suggest the southern part of the platform has experienced higher temperatures (up to 300 degrees C) than similar stratigraphic horizons in the north. The irregular downhole variation of illite crystallinity values provides further information oil the thermal regime in the basin and shows that clay formation was controlled not only by temperature increase with depth but also by high water/rock ratios along relatively permeable zones. K-Ar dating of illite, in combination with other data, may indicate three major thermal events in the central and northern Lawn Hill platform Lit 1500, 1440 to 1400, and 1250 to 1150 Ma. This study did not detect the earlier Century base metal mineralizing event at 1575 Ma. 1500 Ma ages are recorded only in the south and correspond to the age of the Late Isan orogeny and deposition of the Lower Roper superbasin. They may reflect exhumation of a provenance region. The 1440 to 1300 Ma ages are related to fault reactivation and a thermal pulse at similar to 1440 to 1400 Ma possibly accompanied by fluid flow, with subsequent enhanced cooling possibly due to thermal relaxation or further crustal exhumation. The youngest thermal and/or fluid-flow event at 1250 to 1150 Ma is recorded mainly to the cast of the Tern-lite Range fault and may be related to the assembly of the Rodinian supercontinent. Fluids in equilibrium with illite that formed over a range of temperatures, at different times in different parts of the platform. have relatively uniform oxygen isotope compositions and more variable hydrogen isotope compositions (delta O-18 = 3.5-9.7 parts per thousand V-SMOW; delta D = -94 to -36 parts per thousand V-SMOW). The extent of the 180 enrichment and the variably depleted hydrogen isotope compositions suggest the illite interacted with deep-basin hypersaline brines that were composed of evaporated seawater and/or highly evolved meteoric water. Siderite is the most abundant iron-rich gangue phase in the Century Zn-Pb deposit, which is surrounded by all extensive ferroan carbonate alteration halo. Modeling suggests that the ore siderite formed at temperatures of 120 degrees to 150 degrees C, whereas siderite and ankerite in the alteration halo formed at temperatures of 150 degrees to 180 degrees C. The calculated isotopic compositions of the fluids are consistent with O-18-rich basinal brines and mixed inorganic and organic carbon Sources (6180 = 3-10 parts per thousand V-SMOW, delta C-13 = -7 to -3 parts per thousand V-PDB). in the northeast Lawn Hill platform carbonate-rich rocks preserve marine to early diagenetic carbon and oxygen isotope compositions, whereas ferroan carbonate cements in siltstones and shales in the Desert Creek borehole are O-18 and C-13 depleted relative to the sedimentary carbonates. The good agreement between temperature estimates from illite crystallinity and organic reflectance (160 degrees-270 degrees C) and inverse correlation with carbonate delta O-18 values indicates that organic maturation and carbonate precipitation in the northeast Lawn Hill platform resulted from interaction with the 1250 to 1150 Ma fluids. The calculated isotopic compositions of the fluid are consistent with evolved basinal brine (delta O-18 = 5.1-9.4 parts per thousand V-SMOW; delta C-13 = -13.2 to -3.7 parts per thousand V-PDB) that contained a variable organic carbon component from the oxidation and/or hydrolysis of organic matter in the host sequence. The occurrence of extensive O-18- and C-13-depleted ankerite and siderite alteration in Desert Creek is related to the high temperature of the 1250 to 1150 Ma fluid-flow event in the northeast Lawn Hill platform, in contrast to the lower temperature fluids associated with the earlier Century Zn-Pb deposit in the central Lawn Hill platform.

Correlation of habitual physical activity levels with flow mediated dilation of the brachial artery in 5-10 year old children

Endothelial dysfunction is an early key event of atherogenesis. Both fitness level and exercise intervention have been shown to positively influence endothelial function. In a cross-sectional study of 47 children, the relationship between habitual physical activity and flow-mediated dilation (FMD) of the brachial artery was explored. Habitual physical activity levels (PALs) were assessed using a validated stable isotope technique, and FMD of the brachial artery was measured via high-resolution ultrasound. The results showed that habitual physical activity significantly correlated with FMD (r=0.39, P=0.007), and remained the most influential variable on dilation in multivariate analysis. Although both fitness level and exercise intervention have previously been shown to positively influence FMD, this is the first time that a relationship with normal PALs has been investigated, especially, at such a young age. These data support the concept that physical activity exerts its protective effect on cardiovascular health via the endothelium and add further emphasis to the importance of physical activity in childhood.

Studies of Cognition and Emotion in Organisations: Attribution, Affective Events, Emotional Intelligence and Perception of Emotion

This article details the author’s attempts to improve understanding of organisational behaviour through investigation of the cognitive and affective processes that underlie attitudes and behaviour. To this end, the paper describes the author’s earlier work on the attribution theory of leadership and, more recently, in three areas of emotion research: affective events theory, emotional intelligence, and the effect of supervisors’ facial expression on employees’ perceptions of leader-member exchange quality. The paper summarises the author’s research on these topics, shows how they have contributed to furthering our understanding of organisational behaviour, suggests where research in these areas are going, and draws some conclusions for management practice.

Correlation between carbon isotope discrimination and transpiration efficiency in lines of the C-4 species Sorghum bicolor in the glasshouse and the field

Transpiration efficiency, W, the ratio of plant carbon produced to water transpired and carbon isotope discrimination of leaf dry matter, Delta(d)' were measured together on 30 lines of the C-4 species, Sorghum bicolor in the glasshouse and on eight lines grown in the field. In the glasshouse, the mean W observed was 4.9 mmol C mol(-1) H2O and the range was 0.8 mmol C mol(-1) H2O The mean Delta(d) was 3.0 parts per thousand and the observed range was 0.4 parts per thousand. In the field, the mean W was lower at 2.8 mmol C mol H2O and the mean Delta(d) was 4.6 parts per thousand. Significant positive correlations between W and Delta(d) were observed for plants grown in the glasshouse and in the field. The observed correlations were consistent with theory, opposite to those for C-4 species, and showed that variation in Delta(d) was an integrated measure of long-term variation in the ratio of intercellular to ambient CO2 partial pressure, p(i)/p(a). Detailed gas exchange measurements of carbon isotope discrimination during CO2 uptake, Delta(A) and p(i)/p(a) were made on leaves of eight S. bicolor lines. The observed relationship between Delta(A) and p(i)/p(a) was linear with a negative slope of 3.7 parts per thousand in Delta(A) for a unit change in p(i)/p(a). The slope of this linear relationship between Delta(A) and p(i)/p(a) in C-4 species is dependent on the leakiness of the CO2 concentrating mechanism of the C pathway, We estimated the leakiness (defined as the fraction of CO2 released in the bundle sheath by C-4 acid decarboxylations, which is lost by leakage) to be 0.2. We conclude that, although variation in Delta(d) observed in the 30 lines of S. bicolor is smaller than that commonly observed in C-4 species, it also reflects variation in transpiration efficiency, W. Among the eight lines examined in detail and in the environments used, there was considerable genotype x environment interaction.

Biomolecular interaction analysis of IFN gamma-induced signaling events in whole-cell lysates: Prevalence of latent STAT1 in high-molecular weight complexes

The basic framework for the JAK/STAT pathway is well documented. Recruitment of latent cytoplasmic STAT transcription factors to tyrosine phosphorylated docking sites on cytokine receptors and their JAK-mediated phosphorylation instigates their translocation to the nucleus and their ability to bind DNA, The biochemical processes underlying recruitment and activation of this pathway have commonly been studied in reconstituted in vitro systems using previously defined recombinant signaling components. We have dissected the Interferon gamma (IFN gamma) signal transduction pathway in crude extracts from wild-type and STAT1-negative mutant cell Lines by real-time BIAcore analysis, size-exclusion (SE) chromatography and immune-detection. The data indicate that in detergent-free cell extracts: (1) the phospho-tyrosine (Y440P)-containing peptide motif of the IFN gamma-receptor ct-chain interacts directly with STAT1, or STAT1 complexes, and no other protein; (2) nonactivated STAT 1 is present in a higher molecular weight complex(es) and, at least for IFN gamma-primed cells, is available for recruitment to the activated IFN gamma-receptor from only a subset of such complexes; (3) activated STAT1 is released from the receptor as a monomer.

Coronary events and exposure to environmental tobacco smoke: a case-control study from Australia and New Zealand

Objectives-To estimate the relative risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) associated with exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS). Design-Population-based case-control study. Subjects-Cases were 953 people identified in a population register of coronary events, and controls were 3189 participants in independent community-based risk factor prevalence surveys from the same study populations. Setting-Newcastle, Australia and Auckland, New Zealand. Main outcome measures-Acute myocardial infarction or coronary death. Results-After adjusting for the effects of age, education, history of heart disease, and body mass index, women had a statistically significant increased risk of a coronary event associated with exposure to ETS (relative risk (RR) = 1.99; 95% confidence interval (CI)= 1.40-2.81). There was little statistical evidence of increased risk found in men (RR = 1.02, 95% CI = 0.81-1.28). Conclusion-Our study found evidence for the adverse effects of exposure to ETS on risk of coronary heart disease among women, especially at home. For men the issue is unclear according to the data from our study. Additional studies with detailed information on possible confounders and adequate statistical power are needed. Most importantly, they should use methods for measuring exposure to ETS that are sufficiently accurate to permit the investigation of dose-response relationships.

Predictors of death and vascular events in the elderly - The Perth Community Stroke Study

Background and Purpose-The goal of the present study was to identify risk factors for vascular disease in the elderly. Methods-We conducted a prospective study of control subjects from a population-based study of stroke in Perth, Western Australia, that was completed in 1989 to 1990 and used record linkage and a survey of survivors to identify deaths and nonfatal vascular events. Data validated through reference to medical records were analyzed with the use of Cox proportional hazards models. Results-Follow-up for the 931 subjects was 88% complete. By June 24, 1994, 198 (24%) of the subjects had died (96 from vascular disease), and there had been 45 nonfatal strokes or myocardial infarctions. The hazard ratio for diabetes exceeded 2.0 for all end points, whereas the consumption of meat >4 times weekly was associated with a reduction in risk of less than or equal to 30%. In most models, female sex and consumption of alcohol were associated with reduced risks, whereas previous myocardial infarction was linked to an increase in risk. Conclusions-There are only limited associations between lifestyle and major vascular illness in old age. Effective health promotion activities in early and middle life may be the key to a longer and healthier old age.

U-q[(sl(2)over-cap vertical bar 1)] vertex operators, screen currents, and correlation functions at an arbitrary level

Bosonized q-vertex operators related to the four-dimensional evaluation modules of the quantum affine superalgebra U-q[sl((2) over cap\1)] are constructed for arbitrary level k=alpha, where alpha not equal 0,-1 is a complex parameter appearing in the four-dimensional evaluation representations. They are intertwiners among the level-alpha highest weight Fock-Wakimoto modules. Screen currents which commute with the action of U-q[sl((2) over cap/1)] up to total differences are presented. Integral formulas for N-point functions of type I and type II q-vertex operators are proposed. (C) 2000 American Institute of Physics. [S0022-2488(00)00608-3].