Risk factors for non-haemorrhagic stroke in patients with coronary heart disease and the effect of lipid-modifying therapy with pravastatin

Objective To determine the relative importance of recognised risk factors for non-haemorrhagic stroke, including serum cholesterol and the effect of cholesterol-lowering therapy, on the occurrence of non-haemorrhagic stroke in patients enrolled in the LIPID (Long-term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischaemic Disease) study. Design The LIPID study was a placebo-controlled, double-blind trial of the efficacy on coronary heart disease mortality of pravastatin therapy over 6 years in 9014 patients with previous acute coronary syndromes and baseline total cholesterol of 4-7 mmol/l. Following identification of patients who had suffered non-haemorrhagic stroke, a pre-specified secondary end point, multivariate Cox regression was used to determine risk in the total population. Time-to-event analysis was used to determine the effect of pravastatin therapy on the rate of non-haemorrhagic stroke. Results There were 388 non-haemorrhagic strokes in 350 patients. Factors conferring risk of future non-haemorrhagic stroke were age, atrial fibrillation, prior stroke, diabetes, hypertension, systolic blood pressure, cigarette smoking, body mass index, male sex and creatinine clearance. Baseline lipids did not predict non-haemorrhagic stroke. Treatment with pravastatin reduced non-haemorrhagic stroke by 23% (P= 0.016) when considered alone, and 21% (P= 0.024) after adjustment for other risk factors. Conclusions The study confirmed the variety of risk factors for non-haemorrhagic stroke. From the risk predictors, a simple prognostic index was created for nonhaemorrhagic stroke to identify a group of patients at high risk. Treatment with pravastatin resulted in significant additional benefit after allowance for risk factors. (C) 2002 Lippincott Williams Wilkins.

Dietary influences on survival after ovarian cancer

We evaluated the effects of various food groups and micronutrients in the diet on survival among women who originally participated in a population-based case-control study of ovarian cancer conducted across 3 Australian states between 1990 and 1993. This analysis included 609 women with invasive epithelial ovarian cancer, primarily because there was negligible mortality in women with borderline tumors. The women's usual diet was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Deaths in the cohort were identified using state-based cancer registries and the Australian National Death Index (NDI). Crude 5-year survival probabilities were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier technique, and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained from Cox regression models. After adjusting for important confounding factors, a survival advantage was observed for those who reported higher intake of vegetables in general (HR = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.57-0.99, p-value trend 0.01 for the highest third, compared to the lowest third), and cruciferous vegetables in particular (HR = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.57-0.98, p-value trend 0.03), and among women in the upper third of intake of vitamin E (HR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.58-1.01, p-value trend 0.04). Inverse associations were also seen with protein (p-value trend 0.09), red meat (p-value trend 0.06) and white meat (p-value trend 0.07), and modest positive trends (maximum 30% excess) with lactose (p-value trend 0.04), calcium and dairy products. Although much remains to be learned about the influence of nutritional factors after a diagnosis of ovarian cancer, our study suggests the possibility that a diet high in vegetable intake may help improve survival. (C) 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

The relative importance of vascular structure and function in predicting cardiovascular events

OBJECTIVES We sought to assess the prognostic utility of brachial artery reactivity (BAR) in patients at risk of cardiovascular events. BACKGROUND Impaired flow-mediated vasodilation measured by BAR is a marker of endothelial dysfunction. Brachial artery reactivity is influenced by risk factors and is responsive to various pharmacological and other treatments. However, its prognostic importance is uncertain, especially relative to other predictors of outcome. METHODS A total of 444 patients were prospectively enrolled to undergo BAR and follow-up. These patients were at risk of cardiovascular events, based on the presence of risk factors or known or suspected cardiovascular disease. We took a full clinical history, performed BAR, and obtained carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and left ventricular mass and ejection fraction. Patients were followed up for cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to assess the independent association of investigation variables on outcomes. RESULTS The patients exhibited abnormal BAR (5.2 +/- 6.1% [mean +/- SD]) but showed normal nitrate-mediated dilation (9.9 +/- 7.2%) and normal mean IMT (0.67 +/- 0.12 mm [average]). Forty-nine deaths occurred over the median follow-up period of 24 months (interquartile range 10 to 34). Patients in the lowest tertile group of BAR (<2%) had significantly more events than those in the combined group of highest and mid-tertiles (p = 0.029, log-rank test). However, mean IMT (rather than flow-mediated dilation) was the vascular factor independently associated with mortality, even in the subgroup (n = 271) with no coronary artery disease and low risk. CONCLUSIONS Brachial artery reactivity is lower in patients with events, but is not an independent predictor of cardiovascular outcomes in this cohort of patients. (C) 2004 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation.

Genetic effects on alcohol dependence risk: re-evaluating the importance of psychiatric and other heritable risk factors

Background. Genetic influences have been shown to play a major role in determining the risk of alcohol dependence (AD) in both women and men; however, little attention has been directed to identifying the major sources of genetic variation in AD risk. Method. Diagnostic telephone interview data from young adult Australian twin pairs born between 1964 and 1971 were analyzed. Cox regression models were fitted to interview data from a total of 2708 complete twin pairs (690 MZ female, 485 MZ male, 500 DZ female, 384 DZ male, and 649 DZ female/male pairs). Structural equation models were fitted to determine the extent of residual genetic and environmental influences on AD risk while controlling for effects of sociodemographic and psychiatric predictors on risk. Results. Risk of AD was increased in males, in Roman Catholics, in those reporting a history of major depression, social anxiety problems, and conduct disorder, or (in females only) a history of suicide attempt and childhood sexual abuse; but was decreased in those reporting Baptist, Methodist, or Orthodox religion, in those who reported weekly church attendance, and in university-educated males. After allowing for the effects of sociodemographic and psychiatric predictors, 47 % (95 % CI 28-55) of the residual variance in alcoholism risk was attributable to additive genetic effects, 0 % (95 % CI 0-14) to shared environmental factors, and 53 % (95 % CI 45-63) to non-shared environmental influences. Conclusions. Controlling for other risk factors, substantial residual heritability of AD was observed, suggesting that psychiatric and other risk factors play a minor role in the inheritance of AD.

Arrhythmias and mortality after myocardial infarction in diabetic patients - Relationship to diabetes treatment

OBJECTIVE- To assess the relationship between clinical course after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and diabetes treatment. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS- Retrospective analysis of data from all patients aged 25-64 years admitted to hospitals in Perth, Australia, between 1985 and 1993 with AMI diagnosed according to the International Classification of Diseases (9th revision) criteria was conducted. Short- (28-day) and long-term survival and complications in diabetic and nondiabetic patients were compared. For diabetic patients, 28-day survival, dysrhythmias, heart block, and pulmonary edema were treated as outcomes, and factors related to each were assessed using multiple logistic regression. Diabetes treatment was added to the model to assess its significance. Long-term survival was compared by means of a Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS- Of 5,715 patients, 745 (12.9%) were diabetic. Mortality at 28 days was 12.0 and 28.1% for nondiabetic and diabetic patients, respectively (P < 0.001); there were no significant drug effects in the diabetic group. Ventricular fibrillation in diabetic patients taking glibenclamide (11.8%) was similar to that of nondiabetic patients (11.0%) but was lower than that for those patients taking either gliclazide (18.0%; 0.1 > P > 0.05) or insulin (22.8%; P < 0.05). There were no other treatment-related differences in acute complications. Long-term survival in diabetic patients was reduced in those taking digitalis and/or diuretics but type of diabetes treatment at discharge had no significant association with outcome. CONCLUSlONS- These results do not suggest that ischemic heart disease should influence the choice of diabetes treatment regimen in general or of sulfonylurea drug in particular.

Predicting sprint running times from isokinetic and squat lift tests: A regression analysis

This study examined the relationship between isokinetic hip extensor/hip flexor strength, 1-RM squat strength, and sprint running performance for both a sprint-trained and non-sprint-trained group. Eleven male sprinters and 8 male controls volunteered for the study. On the same day subjects ran 20-m sprints from both a stationary start and with a 50-m acceleration distance, completed isokinetic hip extension/flexion exercises at 1.05, 4.74, and 8.42 rad.s(-1), and had their squat strength estimated. Stepwise multiple regression analysis showed that equations for predicting both 20-m maximum velocity nm time and 20-m acceleration time may be calculated with an error of less than 0.05 sec using only isokinetic and squat strength data. However, a single regression equation for predicting both 20-m acceleration and maximum velocity run times from isokinetic or squat tests was not found. The regression analysis indicated that hip flexor strength at all test velocities was a better predictor of sprint running performance than hip extensor strength.

Likelihood-based estimation of the regression model with scrambled responses

A significant problem in the collection of responses to potentially sensitive questions, such as relating to illegal, immoral or embarrassing activities, is non-sampling error due to refusal to respond or false responses. Eichhorn & Hayre (1983) suggested the use of scrambled responses to reduce this form of bias. This paper considers a linear regression model in which the dependent variable is unobserved but for which the sum or product with a scrambling random variable of known distribution, is known. The performance of two likelihood-based estimators is investigated, namely of a Bayesian estimator achieved through a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling scheme, and a classical maximum-likelihood estimator. These two estimators and an estimator suggested by Singh, Joarder & King (1996) are compared. Monte Carlo results show that the Bayesian estimator outperforms the classical estimators in almost all cases, and the relative performance of the Bayesian estimator improves as the responses become more scrambled.

Serum triglycerides as a risk factor for cardiovascular diseases in the Asia-Pacific Region

Background-The importance of serum triglyceride levels as a risk factor for cardiovascular diseases is uncertain. Methods and Results-We performed an individual participant data meta-analysis of prospective studies conducted in the Asia-Pacific region. Cox models were applied to the combined data from 26 studies to estimate the overall and region-, sex-, and age-specific hazard ratios for major cardiovascular diseases by fifths of triglyceride values. During 796 671 person-years of follow-up among 96 224 individuals, 670 and 667 deaths as a result of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke, respectively, were recorded. After adjustment for major cardiovascular risk factors, participants grouped in the highest fifth of triglyceride levels had a 70% (95% CI, 47 to 96) greater risk of CHD death, an 80% (95% CI, 49 to 119) higher risk of fatal or nonfatal CHD, and a 50% (95% CI, 29% to 76%) increased risk of fatal or nonfatal stroke compared with those belonging to the lowest fifth. The association between triglycerides and CHD death was similar across subgroups defined by ethnicity, age, and sex. Conclusions-Serum triglycerides are an important and independent predictor of CHD and stroke risk in the Asia-Pacific region. These results may have clinical implications for cardiovascular risk prediction and the use of lipid-lowering therapy.

Proximal arterial vasoconstriction precedes regression of the hyaloid vasculature

Purpose: To determine whether constriction of proximal arterial vessels precedes involution of the distal hyaloid vasculature in the mouse, under normal conditions, and whether this vasoconstriction is less pronounced when the distal hyaloid network persists, as it does in oxygen-induced retinopathy (OIR). Methods: Photomicrographs of the vasa hyaloidea propria were analysed from pre-term pups (1-2 days prior to birth), and on Days 1-11 post-birth. The OIR model involved exposing pups to similar to 90% O-2 from D1-5, followed by return to ambient air. At sampling times pups were anaesthetised and perfused with india ink. Retinal flatmounts were also incubated with FITC-lectin (BS-1, G. simplicifolia,); this labels all vessels, allowing identification of vessels not patent to the perfusate. Results: Mean diameter of proximal hyaloid vessels in preterm pups was 25.44 +/- 1.98 mum; +/-1 SEM). Within 3-12 hrs of birth, significant vasoconstriction was evident (diameter:12.45 +/- 0.88 mum), and normal hyaloid regression subsequently occurred. Similar vasoconstriction occurred in the O-2-treated group, but this was reversed upon return to room air, with significant dilation of proximal vessels by D7 (diameter: 31.75 +/- 11.99 mum) and distal hyaloid vessels subsequently became enlarged and tortuous. Conclusions: Under normal conditions, vasoconstriction of proximal hyaloid vessels occurs at birth, preceding attenuation of distal hyaloid vessels. Vasoconstriction also occurs in O-2-treated pups during treatment, but upon return to room air, the remaining hyaloid vessels dilate proximally, and the distal vessels become dilated and tortuous. These observations support the contention that regression of the hyaloid network is dependent, in the first instance, on proximal arterial vasoconstriction.

Model specification tests in nonparametric stochastic regression models

In this paper, we consider testing for additivity in a class of nonparametric stochastic regression models. Two test statistics are constructed and their asymptotic distributions are established. We also conduct a small sample study for one of the test statistics through a simulated example. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).

An EM-based Semi-Parametric Mixture Model Approach to the Regression Analysis of Competing-Risks Data

We consider a mixture model approach to the regression analysis of competing-risks data. Attention is focused on inference concerning the effects of factors on both the probability of occurrence and the hazard rate conditional on each of the failure types. These two quantities are specified in the mixture model using the logistic model and the proportional hazards model, respectively. We propose a semi-parametric mixture method to estimate the logistic and regression coefficients jointly, whereby the component-baseline hazard functions are completely unspecified. Estimation is based on maximum likelihood on the basis of the full likelihood, implemented via an expectation-conditional maximization (ECM) algorithm. Simulation studies are performed to compare the performance of the proposed semi-parametric method with a fully parametric mixture approach. The results show that when the component-baseline hazard is monotonic increasing, the semi-parametric and fully parametric mixture approaches are comparable for mildly and moderately censored samples. When the component-baseline hazard is not monotonic increasing, the semi-parametric method consistently provides less biased estimates than a fully parametric approach and is comparable in efficiency in the estimation of the parameters for all levels of censoring. The methods are illustrated using a real data set of prostate cancer patients treated with different dosages of the drug diethylstilbestrol. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.