Estimating trends and seasonality in coronary heart disease

We present two methods of estimating the trend, seasonality and noise in time series of coronary heart disease events. In contrast to previous work we use a non-linear trend, allow multiple seasonal components, and carefully examine the residuals from the fitted model. We show the importance of estimating these three aspects of the observed data to aid insight of the underlying process, although our major focus is on the seasonal components. For one method we allow the seasonal effects to vary over time and show how this helps the understanding of the association between coronary heart disease and varying temperature patterns. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

White blood cell count predicts reduction in coronary heart disease mortality with pravastatin

Background-Elevated serum inflammatory marker levels are associated with a greater long-term risk of cardiovascular events. Because 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme-A reductase inhibitors (statins) may have an antiinflammatory action, it has been suggested that patients with elevated inflammatory marker levels may have a greater reduction in cardiovascular risk with statin treatment. Methods and Results-We evaluated the association between the white blood cell count (WBC) and coronary heart disease mortality during a mean follow-up of 6.0 years in the Long-Term Intervention With Pravastatin in Ischemic Disease (LIPID) Study, a clinical trial comparing pravastatin (40 mg/d) with a placebo in 9014 stable patients with previous myocardial infarction or unstable angina. An increase in baseline WBC was associated with greater coronary heart disease mortality in patients randomized to placebo (hazard ratio for 1 X 10(9)/L increase in WBC, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.25; P<0.001) but not pravastatin (hazard ratio, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.96 to 1.09; P=0.56; P for interaction=0.004). The numbers of coronary heart disease deaths prevented per 1000 patients treated with pravastatin were 0, 9, 30, and 38 for baseline WBC quartiles of <5.9, 6.0 to 6.9, 7.0 to 8.1, and >8.2X10(9)/L, respectively. WBC was a stronger predictor of this treatment benefit than the ratio of total to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and a global measure of cardiac risk. There was also a greater reduction (P=0.052) in the combined incidence of cardiovascular mortality, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and stroke with pravastatin as baseline WBC increased ( by quartile: 3, 41, 61, and 60 events prevented per 1000 patients treated, respectively). Conclusions-These data support the hypothesis that individuals with evidence of inflammation may obtain a greater benefit from statin therapy.

Contribution of changes in risk factors to the decline of coronary heart disease mortality in Australia over three decades

BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease has been a major cause of mortality in Australian adults, but the rate has declined by 83% from the 1968 peak by the year 2000. The study objective is to determine the contribution of changes in population risk factors - mean serum cholesterol and diastolic blood pressure and tobacco smoking prevalence - to the decline in coronary heart disease mortality in Australia over three decades. METHODS: Coronary heart disease deaths (International Classification of Disease-9, 410-414) and population by year, age group and sex were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Risk factor levels were obtained from population surveys and estimated average annual changes by period were used to calculate average annual 'attributable' proportional declines in CHD mortality by period (age 35-64 years). RESULTS: Over the period 1968-2000, 74% of male decline and 81% of the female decline in coronary heart disease mortality rate was accounted for by the combined effect of reductions in the three risk factors. In males 36% of the decline was contributed by reductions in diastolic blood pressure, 22% by cholesterol and 16% by smoking. For females 56% was from diastolic blood pressure reduction, 20% from cholesterol and 5% from smoking. Effects of reductions in serum cholesterol on coronary heart disease mortality occurred mainly in the 1970s. Declines in diastolic blood pressure had effects on coronary heart disease mortality over the three decades, and declines in tobacco smoking had a significant effect in males in the 1980s. CONCLUSION: Most of the spectacular decline in coronary heart disease mortality over the last three decades in Australia can be ascribed to reductions in population risk factors from primary and secondary prevention.

Structural ambiguity of the Chinese version of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale in patients with coronary heart disease

Background The Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) is a widely used screening tool designed as a case detector for clinically relevant anxiety and depression. Recent studies of the HADS in coronary heart disease (CHD) patients in European countries suggest it comprises three, rather than two, underlying sub-scale dimensions. The factor structure of the Chinese version of the HADS was evaluated in patients with CHD in mainland China. Methods Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was conducted on self-report HADS forms from 154 Chinese CHD patients. Results Little difference was observed in model fit between best performing three-factor and two-factor models. Conclusion The current observations are inconsistent with recent studies highlighting a dominant underlying tri-dimensional structure to the HADS in CHD patients. The Chinese version of the HADS may perform differently to European language versions of the instrument in patients with CHD.

Association between glutathione S-transferase M1 and T1 and the risk for coronary heart disease (CHD)

Deficiency of Glutathione S-transferases (GST) M1 and T1 are associated with chronic diseases (e.g. lung cancer, MS) and could be one factor for the risk for CHD.We conducted a pros-pective case-control study in 93 pts. with angiographically proven CHD and 161 controls matched for age ±2y and gender (resulting in n=91 pairs, of which 18 were female). Genes coding for functional GST M1 and T1 were analysed acoording to previously published methods. The association between GST M1, T1 was tested using Fisher's exact test; logistic regression analysis was performed to control for HDL-cholesterol, diabetes smoking, diabetes, hypertension. 41% of cases were smokers, 25% had diabetes and 68% hypertension, corresponding figures for controls were 31%, 13% and 33%. Mean HDL-cholesterol levels were comparable (pts: 46±14 mg/dl, controls: 43± 19 mg/dl). There was no overall significant correlation between functional GST T1 and M1 genotypes and CHD, however, there seems to be an association between GST M1, HDL-cholesterol and CHD. Larger studies are needed to verify these data.

Pharmacological treatment and perceived health status during 1-year follow up in patients diagnosed with coronary artery disease, but ineligible for revascularization. Results from the Euro Heart Survey on Coronary Revascularization

Background It has been recognized that a clinically significant portion of patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) continue to experience anginal and other related symptoms that are refractory to the combination of medical therapy and revascularization. The Euro Heart Survey on Revascularization (EHSCR) provided an opportunity to assess pharmacological treatment and outcome in patients with proven CAD who were ineligible for revascularization. Methods We performed a secondary analysis of EHS-CR data. After excluding patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction and those in whom revascularization was not indicated, 4409 patients remained in the analyses. We selected two groups: (1) patients in whom revascularization was the preferred treatment option (n = 3777, 86%), and (2) patients who were considered ineligible for revascularization (n = 632, 14%). Results Patient ineligible for revascularization had a worse risk profile, more often had a total occlusion (59% vs. 37%, p < 0.001), were treated more often with ACE-inhibitors (65% vs. 55%, p < 0.001) but less likely with aspirin (83% vs. 88%, p < 0.001). Overall, they had higher case-fatality at 1-year (7.0% vs. 3.7%, p < 0.001). Regarding self-perceived health status, measured via the EuroQol 5D (EQ-5D) questionnaire, these same patients reported more problems on all dimensions of the EQ-5D. Furthermore, in the revascularization group we observed an increase between discharge and 1-year follow up (utility score from 0.85 to 1.00) whereas patients ineligible for revascularization did not improve over time (utility score remained 0.80) Conclusion In this large cohort of European patients with CAD, those considered ineligible for revascularization had more co-morbidities and risk factors, and scored worse on self-perceived health status as compared to revascularized patients in the revascularization group. With the exception of ACE-inhibitors and aspirin, there were no major differences regarding drug treatment between the two groups. Given these clinically significant observations, there appears to be a role for nurse-led, multidisciplinary, rehabilitation teams that target clinically vulnerable patients whose symptoms remain refractory to standard medical care.

Determinants of subclinical diabetic heart disease

Aims/hypothesis: Subclinical left ventricular (LV) dysfunction has been shown by tissue Doppler and strain imaging in diabetic patients in the absence of coronary disease or LV hypertrophy, but the prevalence and aetiology of this finding remain unclear. This study sought to identify the prevalence and the determinants of subclinical diabetic heart disease. Methods: A group of 219 unselected patients with type 2 diabetes without known cardiac disease underwent resting and stress echocardiography. After exclusion of coronary artery disease or LV hypertrophy, the remaining 120 patients ( age 57 +/- 10 years, 73 male) were studied with tissue Doppler imaging. Peak systolic strain of each wall and systolic (Sm) and diastolic ( Em) velocity of each basal segment were measured from the three apical views and averaged for each patient. Significant subclinical LV dysfunction was identified according to Sm and Em normal ranges adjusted by age and sex. Strain and Em were correlated with clinical, therapeutic, echocardiographic and biochemical variables, and significant independent associations were sought using a multiple linear regressionmodel. Results: Significant subclinical LV dysfunction was present in 27% diabetic patients. Myocardial systolic dysfunction by peak strain was independently associated with glycosylated haemoglobin level ( p< 0.001) and lack of angiotensin- converting enzyme inhibitor treatment ( p= 0.003). Myocardial diastolic function ( Em) was independently predicted by age ( p= 0.013), hypertension ( p= 0.001), insulin ( p= 0.008) and metformin ( p= 0.01) treatment. Conclusions/ interpretation: In patients with diabetes mellitus, subclinical LV dysfunction is common and associated with poor diabetic control, advancing age, hypertension and metformin treatment; ACE inhibitor and insulin therapies appear to be protective.

Screening for heart disease in diabetic subjects

Background The prevalence of left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH), coronary artery disease, and subclinical cardiomyopathy in diabetic patients without known cardiac disease is unclear. We sought the frequency of these findings to determine whether plasma brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) could be used as an alternative screening tool to identify subclinical LV dysfunction. Methods Asymptomatic patients with diabetes mellitus without known cardiac disease (n = 10 1) underwent clinical evaluation, measurement of BNP, exercise stress testing, and detailed echocardiographic assessment. After exclusion of overt dysfunction or ischemia, subclinical myocardial function was sought on the basis of myocardial systolic (Sm) and diastolic velocity (Em). Association was. sought between subclinical dysfunction and clinical, biochemical, exercise, and echocardiographic variables. Results Of 101 patients, 22 had LVH and 16 had ischemia evidenced by exercise-induced wall motion abnormalities. Only 4 patients had abnormal BNP levels; BNP was significantly increased in patients with LVH. After exclusion of LVH and coronary artery disease, subclinical cardiomyopathy was identified in 24 of 66 patients: Subclinical disease could not be predicted by BNP. Conclusions Even after exclusion of asymptomatic ischemia and hypertrophy, subclinical systolic and diastolic dysfunction occurs in a significant number of patients with type 2 diabetes. However, screening approaches, including BNP, do not appear to be sufficiently sensitive to identify subclinical dysfunction, which requires sophisticated echocardiographic analysis.