Vector Error-Correction Models in a consumer packaged goods category forecasting decision support system

A framework for developing marketing category management decision support systems (DSS) based upon the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model is extended. Since the BVAR model is vulnerable to permanent and temporary shifts in purchasing patterns over time, a form that can correct for the shifts and still provide the other advantages of the BVAR is a Bayesian Vector Error-Correction Model (BVECM). We present the mechanics of extending the DSS to move from a BVAR model to the BVECM model for the category management problem. Several additional iterative steps are required in the DSS to allow the decision maker to arrive at the best forecast possible. The revised marketing DSS framework and model fitting procedures are described. Validation is conducted on a sample problem.

Low-cost real-time gesture recognition

A major impediment to developing real-time computer vision systems has been the computational power and level of skill required to process video streams in real-time. This has meant that many researchers have either analysed video streams off-line or used expensive dedicated hardware acceleration techniques. Recent software and hardware developments have greatly eased the development burden of realtime image analysis leading to the development of portable systems using cheap PC hardware and software exploiting the Multimedia Extension (MMX) instruction set of the Intel Pentium chip. This paper describes the implementation of a computationally efficient computer vision system for recognizing hand gestures using efficient coding and MMX-acceleration to achieve real-time performance on low cost hardware.

Computer simulations of coupled problems in geological and geochemical systems

The finite element method is used to simulate coupled problems, which describe the related physical and chemical processes of ore body formation and mineralization, in geological and geochemical systems. The main purpose of this paper is to illustrate some simulation results for different types of modelling problems in pore-fluid saturated rock masses. The aims of the simulation results presented in this paper are: (1) getting a better understanding of the processes and mechanisms of ore body formation and mineralization in the upper crust of the Earth; (2) demonstrating the usefulness and applicability of the finite element method in dealing with a wide range of coupled problems in geological and geochemical systems; (3) qualitatively establishing a set of showcase problems, against which any numerical method and computer package can be reasonably validated. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

MapScript: A map algebra programming language incorporating neighborhood analysis

Map algebra is a data model and simple functional notation to study the distribution and patterns of spatial phenomena. It uses a uniform representation of space as discrete grids, which are organized into layers. This paper discusses extensions to map algebra to handle neighborhood operations with a new data type called a template. Templates provide general windowing operations on grids to enable spatial models for cellular automata, mathematical morphology, and local spatial statistics. A programming language for map algebra that incorporates templates and special processing constructs is described. The programming language is called MapScript. Example program scripts are presented to perform diverse and interesting neighborhood analysis for descriptive, model-based and processed-based analysis.

Specification, refinement and verification of concurrent systems - An integration of Object-Z and CSP

This paper presents a method of formally specifying, refining and verifying concurrent systems which uses the object-oriented state-based specification language Object-Z together with the process algebra CSP. Object-Z provides a convenient way of modelling complex data structures needed to define the component processes of such systems, and CSP enables the concise specification of process interactions. The basis of the integration is a semantics of Object-Z classes identical to that of CSP processes. This allows classes specified in Object-Z to he used directly within the CSP part of the specification. In addition to specification, we also discuss refinement and verification in this model. The common semantic basis enables a unified method of refinement to be used, based upon CSP refinement. To enable state-based techniques to be used fur the Object-Z components of a specification we develop state-based refinement relations which are sound and complete with respect to CSP refinement. In addition, a verification method for static and dynamic properties is presented. The method allows us to verify properties of the CSP system specification in terms of its component Object-Z classes by using the laws of the the CSP operators together with the logic for Object-Z.

Integrability and exact solution for coupled BCS systems associated with the su(4) Lie algebra

We introduce an integrable model for two coupled BCS systems through a solution of the Yang-Baxter equation associated with the Lie algebra su(4). By employing the algebraic Bethe ansatz, we determine the exact solution for the energy spectrum. An asymptotic analysis is conducted to determine the leading terms in the ground state energy, the gap and some one point correlation functions at zero temperature. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Formal analysis of human-computer interaction using model checking

Experiments with simulators allow psychologists to better understand the causes of human errors and build models of cognitive processes to be used in human reliability assessment (HRA). This paper investigates an approach to task failure analysis based on patterns of behaviour, by contrast to more traditional event-based approaches. It considers, as a case study, a formal model of an air traffic control (ATC) system which incorporates controller behaviour. The cognitive model is formalised in the CSP process algebra. Patterns of behaviour are expressed as temporal logic properties. Then a model-checking technique is used to verify whether the decomposition of the operator's behaviour into patterns is sound and complete with respect to the cognitive model. The decomposition is shown to be incomplete and a new behavioural pattern is identified, which appears to have been overlooked in the analysis of the data provided by the experiments with the simulator. This illustrates how formal analysis of operator models can yield fresh insights into how failures may arise in interactive systems.

XSophe-Sophe-XeprView (R). A computer simulation software suite (v. 1.1.3) for the analysis of continuous wave EPR spectra

The XSophe-Sophe-XeprView((R)) computer simulation software suite enables scientists to easily determine spin Hamiltonian parameters from isotropic, randomly oriented and single crystal continuous wave electron paramagnetic resonance (CW EPR) spectra from radicals and isolated paramagnetic metal ion centers or clusters found in metalloproteins, chemical systems and materials science. XSophe provides an X-windows graphical user interface to the Sophe programme and allows: creation of multiple input files, local and remote execution of Sophe, the display of sophelog (output from Sophe) and input parameters/files. Sophe is a sophisticated computer simulation software programme employing a number of innovative technologies including; the Sydney OPera HousE (SOPHE) partition and interpolation schemes, a field segmentation algorithm, the mosaic misorientation linewidth model, parallelization and spectral optimisation. In conjunction with the SOPHE partition scheme and the field segmentation algorithm, the SOPHE interpolation scheme and the mosaic misorientation linewidth model greatly increase the speed of simulations for most spin systems. Employing brute force matrix diagonalization in the simulation of an EPR spectrum from a high spin Cr(III) complex with the spin Hamiltonian parameters g(e) = 2.00, D = 0.10 cm(-1), E/D = 0.25, A(x) = 120.0, A(y) = 120.0, A(z) = 240.0 x 10(-4) cm(-1) requires a SOPHE grid size of N = 400 (to produce a good signal to noise ratio) and takes 229.47 s. In contrast the use of either the SOPHE interpolation scheme or the mosaic misorientation linewidth model requires a SOPHE grid size of only N = 18 and takes 44.08 and 0.79 s, respectively. Results from Sophe are transferred via the Common Object Request Broker Architecture (CORBA) to XSophe and subsequently to XeprView((R)) where the simulated CW EPR spectra (1D and 2D) can be compared to the experimental spectra. Energy level diagrams, transition roadmaps and transition surfaces aid the interpretation of complicated randomly oriented CW EPR spectra and can be viewed with a web browser and an OpenInventor scene graph viewer.

Using Lindenmayer systems to model morphogenesis in a tropical pasture legume Stylosanthes scabra

This paper summarizes the processes involved in designing a mathematical model of a growing pasture plant, Stylosanthes scabra Vog. cv. Fitzroy. The model is based on the mathematical formalism of Lindenmayer systems and yields realistic computer-generated images of progressive plant geometry through time. The processes involved in attaining growth data, retrieving useful growth rules, and constructing a virtual plant model are outlined. Progressive output morphological data proved useful for predicting total leaf area and allowed for easier quantification of plant canopy size in terms of biomass and total leaf area.

Single-spin measurement using single-electron transistors to probe two-electron systems

We present a method for measuring single spins embedded in a solid by probing two-electron systems with a single-electron transistor (SET). Restrictions imposed by the Pauli principle on allowed two-electron states mean that the spin state of such systems has a profound impact on the orbital states (positions) of the electrons, a parameter which SET's are extremely well suited to measure. We focus on a particular system capable of being fabricated with current technology: a Te double donor in Si adjacent to a Si/SiO2, interface and lying directly beneath the SET island electrode, and we outline a measurement strategy capable of resolving single-electron and nuclear spins in this system. We discuss the limitations of the measurement imposed by spin scattering arising from fluctuations emanating from the SET and from lattice phonons. We conclude that measurement of single spins, a necessary requirement for several proposed quantum computer architectures, is feasible in Si using this strategy.