Epidemiological modelling (including economic modelling) and its role in preventive drug therapy

In contrast to curative therapies, preventive therapies are administered to largely healthy individuals over long periods. The risk-benefit and cost-benefit ratios are more likely to be unfavourable, making treatment decisions difficult. Drug trials provide insufficient information for treatment decisions, as they are conducted on highly selected populations over short durations, estimate only relative benefits of treatment and offer little information on risks and costs. Epidemiological modelling is a method of combining evidence from observational epidemiology and clinical trials to assist in clinical and health policy decision-making. It can estimate absolute benefits, risks and costs of long-term preventive strategies, and thus allow their precise targeting to individuals for whom they are safest and most cost-effective. Epidemiological modelling also allows explicit information about risks and benefits of therapy to be presented to patients, facilitating informed decision-making.

Can anticonvulsant drug therapy 'cure' epilepsy?

There is now evidence to show that, as time passes, epilepsy, even if untreated, tends to undergo spontaneous remission in a significant proportion of patients. The question therefore arises as to whether anticonvulsant drug therapy increases this chance of the patient with epilepsy ultimately entering a terminal remission which continues after the treatment is withdrawn, Le. whether anticonvulsant drug therapy itself may sometimes cure epilepsy. There are no well-designed studies available in the literature that provide a clear answer to this question. However, data from a number of investigations carried out for other purposes can be used to see whether contemporary anticonvulsant drug therapy is associated with higher rates of expected untreated terminal remission than those that apply for never-treated patients with epilepsy, or for those whose anticonvulsant treatment has probably been inadequate for various social or historical reasons. Despite the admitted uncertainties inherent in drawing conclusions from such material, there appears to be a reasonably consistent tendency for contemporary anticonvulsant drug treatment to be associated with a greater chance of achieving probable cure of epilepsy. Therefore it would appear premature to take the view that contemporary anticonvulsant drug therapy does no more than suppress epileptic seizures until epilepsy remits spontaneously, or fails to remit, with the passing of time.

A prospective multicentre study of pharmacist initiated changes to drug therapy and patient management in acute care government funded hospitals

Aims To determine the cost savings of pharmacist initiated changes to hospitalized patients' drug therapy or management in eight major acute care government funded teaching hospitals in Australia. Methods This was a prospective study performed in eight hospitals examining resource implications of pharmacists' interventions assessed by an independent clinical panel. Pharmacists providing clinical services to inpatients recorded details of interventions, defined as any action that directly resulted in a change to patient management or therapy. An independent clinical review panel, convened at each participating centre, confirmed or rejected the clinical pharmacist's assessment of the impact on length of stay (LOS), readmission probability, medical procedures and laboratory monitoring and quantified the resultant changes, which were then costed. Results A total of 1399 interventions were documented. Eight hundred and thirty-five interventions impacted on drug costs alone. Five hundred and eleven interventions were evaluated by the independent panels with three quarters of these confirmed as having an impact on one or more of: length of stay, readmission probability, medical procedures or laboratory monitoring. There were 96 interventions deemed by the independent panels to have reduced LOS and 156 reduced the potential for readmission. The calculated savings was $263 221 for the eight hospitals during the period of the study. This included $150 307 for length of stay reduction, $111 848 for readmission reduction. Conclusions The annualized cost savings relating to length of stay, readmission, drugs, medical procedures and laboratory monitoring as a result of clinical pharmacist initiated changes to hospitalized patient management or therapy was $4 444 794 for eight major acute care government funded teaching hospitals in Australia.

Premenstrual syndrome: The condition, the therapy and the pharmacist.

The following aspects of premenstrual syndrome are discussed: classification, common symptoms, aetiology, pharmacological treatment, other therapies, role of the pharmacist. (non-author abstract)

Prospects for control of African trypanosomiasis by tsetse vector manipulation

The extensive antigenic variation phenomena African trypanosomes display in their mammalian host have hampered efforts to develop effective vaccines against trypanosomiasis. Human disease management aims largely to treat infected hosts by chemotherapy, whereas control of animal diseases relies on reducing tsetse populations as well as on drug therapy. The control strategies for animal diseases are carried out and financed by livestock owners, who have an obvious economic incentive. Sustaining largely insecticide-based control at a local level and relying on drugs for treatment of infected hosts for a disease for which there is no evidence of acquired immunity could prove extremely costly in the long run. It is more likely that a combination of several methods in an integrated, phased and area-wide approach would be more effective in controlling these diseases and subsequently improving agricultural output. New approaches that are environmentally acceptable, efficacious and affordable are clearly desirable for control of various medically and agriculturally important insects including tsetse. Here, Serap Aksoy and colleagues discuss molecular genetic approaches to modulate tsetse vector competence.

Changing patterns of coronary heart disease in the hunter region of New South Wales, Australia

A population-based observational study of men acid women aged 35-69 years in the Hunter Region of New South Wales, Australia, was conducted to assess the impact. of risk-factor modification and increased drug therapy on the trends in major coronary events and case fatality. From 1985 to 1993, there were 3006 coronary deaths and 6450 nonfatal major coronary events. Rates of death and nonfatal myocardial infarction declined, but there was an increase in hospital admissions for prolonged chess pain. Reductions in cigarette smoking, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and increased use of aspirin can fully explain the 3.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.4, 4.2) average annual reduction in rates of major coronary events for men and the 4.1% (95% CI 2.7, 5.5) reduction for women. In contrast, increased use of aspirin, beta-blockers, fibrinolytic therapy, and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors explain less than hall of the 8.9% (95% CI 5.9, 11.8) and 6.9% (95% CI 2.7, 10.9) average annual reduction in case fatality in hospital for men and women, respectively. These trends suggest a decline in severity of coronary heart disease consistent with reductions in risk-factor levels and improved acute medical treatment. J CLIN EPIDEMIOL 52;8:761-771, 1999. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc.

A model for predicting the future incidence of coronary heart disease within percentiles of coronary heart disease risk

Background We present a method (The CHD Prevention Model) for modelling the incidence of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD) within various CHD risk percentiles of an adult population. The model provides a relatively simple tool for lifetime risk prediction for subgroups within a population. It allows an estimation of the absolute primary CHD risk in different populations and will help identify subgroups of the adult population where primary CHD prevention is most appropriate and cost-effective. Methods The CHD risk distribution within the Australian population was modelled, based on the prevalence of CHD risk, individual estimates of integrated CHD risk, and current CHD mortality rates. Predicted incidence of first fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction within CHD risk strata of the Australian population was determined. Results Approximately 25% of CHD deaths were predicted to occur amongst those in the top 10 percentiles of integrated CHD risk, regardless of age group or gender. It was found that while all causes survival did not differ markedly between percentiles of CHD risk before the ages of around 50-60, event-free survival began visibly to differ about 5 years earlier. Conclusions The CHD Prevention Model provides a means of predicting future CHD incidence amongst various strata of integrated CHD risk within an adult population. It has significant application both in individual risk counselling and in the identification of subgroups of the population where drug therapy to reduce CHD risk is most cost-effective. J Cardiovasc Risk 8:31-37 (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Olanzapine vs risperidone in the management of schizophrenia: a randomized double-blind trial in Australia and New Zealand

Improved drug therapy for schizophrenia may represent the best strategy for reducing the costs of schizophrenia and the recurrent chronic course of the disease. Olanzapine and risperidone are atypical antipsychotic agents developed to meet this need. We report a multicenter, double-blind, parallel, 30-week study designed to compare the efficacy, safety, and associated resource use for olanzapine and risperidone in Australia and New Zealand. The study sample consisted of 65 patients who met DSM-IV criteria for schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder, or schizophreniform disorder. Olanzapine-treated patients showed a significantly greater reduction in Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) total, Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS) total, and PANSS General Psychopathology scores at endpoint compared to the risperidone-treated patients. Response rates through 30 weeks showed a significantly greater proportion of olanzapine-treated patients had achieved a 20% or greater improvement in their PANSS total score compared to risperidone-treated patients. Olanzapine and risperidone were equivalent in their improvement of PANSS positive and negative scores and Clinical Global Impression-Severity of Illness scale (CGI-S) at endpoint. Using generic and disease-specific measures of quality of life, olanzapine-treated patients showed significant within-group improvement in most measures, and significant differences were observed in favor of olanzapine over risperidone in Quality of Life Scale (QLS) Intrapsychic Foundation and Medical Outcomes Study Short Form 36-item instrument (SF-36) Role Functioning Limitations-Emotional subscale scores. Despite the relatively small sample size, our study suggests that olanzapine has a superior risk:benefit profile compared to risperidone. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Mutation rates in the dihydrofolate reductase gene of Plasmodium falciparum

A new method has been established to define the limits on a spontaneous mutation rate for a gene in Plasmodium falciparum. The method combines mathematical modelling and large-scale in vitro culturing and calculates the difference in mutant frequencies at 2 separate time-points. We measured the mutation rate at 2 positions in the dihydrofolate reductase (DHFR) gene of 3D7, a pyrimethamine-sensitive line of P. fulciparum. This line was re-cloned and an effectively large population was treated with a selective pyrimethamine concentration of 40 nM. We detected point mutations at codon-46 (TTA to TCA) and codon-108 (ACC to AAC), resulting in serine replacing leucine and asparagine replacing serine respectively in the corresponding gene product. The substitutions caused a decrease in pyrimethamine sensitivity. By mathematical modelling we determined that the mutation rate at a given position in DHFR was low and occurred at less than 2(.)5 x 10(-9) mutations/DHFR gene/replication. This result has important implications for Plasmodium genetic diversity and antimalarial drug therapy by demonstrating that even with lon mutation rates anti-malarial resistance will inevitably arise when mutant alleles are selected under drug pressure.

Improving pain management by nurses: A pilot peer intervention program

Significant pain continues to be reported by many hospitalized patients despite the numerous and varied educational programs developed and implemented to improve pain management. A theoretically based Peer Intervention Program was designed from a predictive model to address nurses' beliefs, attitudes, subjective norms, self-efficacy, perceived control and intentions in the management of pain with p.r.n. (as required) narcotic analgesia. The pilot study of this program utilized a quasi-experimental pre-post test design with a patient intervention, nurse and patient intervention and control conditions consisting of 24, 18 and 19 nurses, respectively. One week after the intervention, significant differences were found between the nurse and patient condition and the two other conditions in beliefs, self-efficacy, perceived control, positive trend in attitudes, subjective norms and intentions. The most positive aspects of the program were supportive interactive discussions with peers and an awareness and understanding of beliefs and attitudes and their roles in behavior.

Inter-relationships between rheumatoid arthritis and periodontal disease

This review considers the considerable similarities between periodontal disease and rheumatoid arthritis (RA). While the etiology of these two diseases may differ, the underlying pathogenic mechanisms are remarkably similar and it is possible that individuals manifesting both periodontitis and RA may suffer from a unifying underlying systemic dysregulation of the inflammatory response. In light of these findings, the implications for the use of disease-modifying medications in the management of these two chronic inflammatory conditions is apparent. Further longitudinal studies and medication-based intervention studies are required to determine just how closely these two conditions are allied.

3: Rehabilitation principles for treating chronic musculoskeletal injuries

Evaluation of patients for rehabilitation after musculoskeletal injury involves identifying, grading and assessing the injury and its impact on the patient's normal activities. Management is guided by a multidisciplinary team, comprising the patient, doctor and physical therapist, with other health professionals recruited as required. Parallel interventions involving the various team members are specified in a customised management plan. The key component of the plan is active mobilisation utilising strengthening, flexibility and endurance exercise programs. Passive physical treatments (heat, ice, and manual therapy), as well as drug therapy and psychological interventions, are used as adjunctive therapy. Biomechanical devices or techniques (eg, orthotic devices) may also be helpful. Coexisting conditions such as depression and drug dependence are treated at the same time as the injury. Effective team communication, simulated environmental testing and, for those employed, contact with the employer facilitate a staged return to normal living, sports and occupational activities.