Modelling the population dynamics of the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni: a cohort-based approach incorporating the effects of weather

Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni (QFF) is arguably the most costly horticultural insect pest in Australia. Despite this, no model is available to describe its population dynamics and aid in its management. This paper describes a cohort-based model of the population dynamics of the Queensland fruit fly. The model is primarily driven by weather variables, and so can be used at any location where appropriate meteorological data are available. In the model, the life cycle is divided into a number of discreet stages to allow physiological processes to be defined as accurately as possible. Eggs develop and hatch into larvae, which develop into pupae, which emerge as either teneral females or males. Both females and males can enter reproductive and over-wintering life stages, and there is a trapped male life stage to allow model predictions to be compared with trap catch data. All development rates are temperature-dependent. Daily mortality rates are temperature-dependent, but may also be influenced by moisture, density of larvae in fruit, fruit suitability, and age. Eggs, larvae and pupae all have constant establishment mortalities, causing a defined proportion of individuals to die upon entering that life stage. Transfer from one immature stage to the next is based on physiological age. In the adult life stages, transfer between stages may require additional and/or alternative functions. Maximum fecundity is 1400 eggs per female per day, and maximum daily oviposition rate is 80 eggs/female per day. The actual number of eggs laid by a female on any given day is restricted by temperature, density of larva in fruit, suitability of fruit for oviposition, and female activity. Activity of reproductive females and males, which affects reproduction and trapping, decreases with rainfall. Trapping of reproductive males is determined by activity, temperature and the proportion of males in the active population. Limitations of the model are discussed. Despite these, the model provides a useful agreement with trap catch data, and allows key areas for future research to be identified. These critical gaps in the current state of knowledge exist despite over 50 years of research on this key pest. By explicitly attempting to model the population dynamics of this pest we have clearly identified the research areas that must be addressed before progress can be made in developing the model into an operational tool for the management of Queensland fruit fly. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Training school personnel to implement a universal school-based prevention of depression program under real-world conditions

The present study evaluated the impact of a universal prevention of depression program [the Resourceful Adolescent Program (RAP)] when implemented under real-world conditions in a school setting. Prior research has found the RAP program to be beneficial for high-school students when the program was implemented by university staff selected, trained, and supervised by a research team. The present study evaluated the RAP program when implemented by existing school personnel. Separately, we measured the impact of a training program for facilitators, the quality of subsequent program implementation, and the student's response to the RAP Program. Results showed that, in response to the training program, facilitators believed they had acquired the knowledge and confidence to implement the program and that the quality of program implementation was acceptable. The study did not demonstrate a beneficial impact of the RAP program for the students. The results raise important questions regarding the extent of training and ongoing supervision facilitators require if the beneficial outcomes for students are to be maintained when interventions are implemented under real-world conditions in school settings. (C) 2004 Society for the Study of School Psychology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vitamin D supplementation during the first year of life and risk of schizophrenia: a Finnish birth cohort study

Objective: Based on clues from epidemiology and animal experiments, low vitamin D during early life has been proposed as a risk factor for schizophrenia. The aim of this study was to explore the association between the use of vitamin D supplements during the first year of life and risk of developing schizophrenia. Method: Subjects were drawn from the Northern Finland 1966 Birth Cohort (n = 9 114). During the first year of life, data were collected about the frequency and dose of vitamin D supplementation. Our primary outcome measures were schizophrenia, psychotic disorders other than schizophrenia, and nonpsychotic disorders as diagnosed by age 31 years. Males and females were examined separately. Results: In males, the use of either irregular or regular vitamin D supplements was associated with a reduced risk of schizophrenia (Risk ratio (RR) = 0.08, 95% CI 0.01-0.95; RR = 0.12, 95% CI 0.02-0.90, respectively) compared with no supplementation. In males, the use of at least 2000 IU of vitamin D was associated with a reduced risk of schizophrenia (RR = 0.23, 95% CI 0.06-0.95) compared to those on lower doses. There were no significant associations between either the frequency or dose of vitamin D supplements and (a) schizophrenia in females, nor with (b) nonpsychotic disorder or psychotic disorders other than schizophrenia in either males or females. Conclusion: Vitamin D supplementation during the first year of life is associated with a reduced risk of schizophrenia in males. Preventing hypovitaminosis D during early life may reduce the incidence of schizophrenia. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An evaluation of a telephone-based postnatal support intervention for infant feeding in a regional Australian city

Background: Postnatal breastfeeding support in the form of home visits is difficult to accommodate in regional Australia, where hospitals often deal with harsh economic constraints in a context where they are required to provide services to geographically, dispersed consumers. This study evaluated a predominately telephone-based support service called the Infant Feeding Support Service. Methods: A prospective cohort design was used to compare data for 696 women giving birth in two regional hospitals (one public, one private) and participating in the support service between January and July 2003 with data from a cohort of 625 women who gave birth in those hospitals before the introduction of the support service. Each mother participating in the support service was assigned a lactation consultant. First contact occurred 48 hours after discharge, and approximately it weekly thereafter for 4 it weeks. Breastfeeding duration was measured at 3 months postpartum. Results: For women from the private hospital, the support service improved exclusive breastfeeding duration to 4.5 weeks postpartum, but these improvements were not evident at 3 months postpartum. No effects were observed for mothers from the public hospital. Quantitative and qualitative data demonstrated high levels of client satisfaction with the support service. Conclusions: This small-scale, predominately telephone-based intervention provided significant, although apparently context-sensitive, improvements to exclusive breastfeeding duration.

Effectiveness of hospital-based smoking cessation

Study objectives: Smoking cessation for current smokers is a health-care imperative. It is not clear which approaches to smoking cessation are the most effective in the hospital setting and which factors predict long-term abstinence. We hypothesized that a hospital-based smoking cessation program involving behavioral modification and support would provide an effective intervention for smoking cessation. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: Smoking cessation clinics in a tertiary referral, cardiothoracic hospital. Patients or participants: Two hundred forty-three smokers and 187 never-smoker control subjects. Interventions: Smokers underwent specific sessions of individual counseling on behavioral modification, including written information, advice about quit aids, and support during the quit attempt. Abstinence was confirmed by exhaled carbon monoxide measurements. Measurements and results: Compared to never-smoker control subjects, smokers were more likely to have grown up with a smoking father or siblings, and to currently live or socialize with other smokers. Two hundred sixteen smokers attended at least two sessions of the smoking cessation program. Of these, 25% were unavailable for follow-up at 12 months and were assumed to be smoking. The point prevalence abstinence rate at 12 months was 32%. Independent factors associated with abstinence at 12 months were self-belief in quitting ability, having a heart condition, growing up without siblings who smoked, and increasing number of pack-years. Conclusions: This prospective study has demonstrated that this hospital-based smoking cessation program was as effective as programs in other settings. Social and psychological factors were associated with a greater chance of abstinence.

Improving research supervision in nursing

In this paper, four experienced researchers from the UK, China and Australia offer guidance in research supervision based on their experiences and the recent document, Improving standards in postgraduate research degree programmes [Higher Education Funding Council for England, 2003. Improving standards in postgraduate research degree programmes. Formal consultation. Department for Employment and Learning, Northern Ireland, Higher Education Funding Council for England, Higher Education Funding Council for Wales, Scottish Higher Education Funding Council, HEFCE, London]. Supervision is an important aspect of not only the development of the neophyte researcher, but of academic staff and research activity in general. With increased academic accountability, good supervision should be an integral component of a quality research governance framework and resourced as such. Recommendations include: adoption of these standards; rigorous selection of research students and supervisors and development of projects; development of departmental procedures for monitoring, feedback and intellectual property; and transparency, rigour and fairness in examination procedures. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Epidemiology of recreational exposure to freshwater cyanobacteria - an international prospective cohort study

Background: Case studies and anecdotal reports have documented a range of acute illnesses associated with exposure to cyanobacteria and their toxins in recreational waters. The epidemiological data to date are limited; we sought to improve on the design of some previously conducted studies in order to facilitate revision and refinement of guidelines for exposure to cyanobacteria in recreational waters. Methods: A prospective cohort study was conducted to investigate the incidence of acute symptoms in individuals exposed, through recreational activities, to low ( cell surface area < 2.4 mm(2)/mL), medium ( 2.4 - 12.0 mm(2)/mL) and high (> 12.0 mm(2)/mL) levels of cyanobacteria in lakes and rivers in southeast Queensland, the central coast area of New South Wales, and northeast and central Florida. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were employed; models adjusted for region, age, smoking, prior history of asthma, hay fever or skin disease ( eczema or dermatitis) and clustering by household. Results: Of individuals approached, 3,595 met the eligibility criteria, 3,193 (89%) agreed to participate and 1,331 (37%) completed both the questionnaire and follow-up interview. Respiratory symptoms were 2.1 (95% CI: 1.1 - 4.0) times more likely to be reported by subjects exposed to high levels of cyanobacteria than by those exposed to low levels. Similarly, when grouping all reported symptoms, individuals exposed to high levels of cyanobacteria were 1.7 ( 95% CI: 1.0 - 2.8) times more likely to report symptoms than their low-level cyanobacteria-exposed counterparts. Conclusion: A significant increase in reporting of minor self-limiting symptoms, particularly respiratory symptoms, was associated with exposure to higher levels of cyanobacteria of mixed genera. We suggest that exposure to cyanobacteria based on total cell surface area above 12 mm(2)/mL could result in increased incidence of symptoms. The potential for severe, life-threatening cyanobacteria-related illness is likely to be greater in recreational waters that have significant levels of cyanobacterial toxins, so future epidemiological investigations should be directed towards recreational exposure to cyanotoxins.

An Incremental EM-based Learning Approach for On-Line Prediction of Hospital Resource Utilization

Objective: Inpatient length of stay (LOS) is an important measure of hospital activity, health care resource consumption, and patient acuity. This research work aims at developing an incremental expectation maximization (EM) based learning approach on mixture of experts (ME) system for on-line prediction of LOS. The use of a batchmode learning process in most existing artificial neural networks to predict LOS is unrealistic, as the data become available over time and their pattern change dynamically. In contrast, an on-line process is capable of providing an output whenever a new datum becomes available. This on-the-spot information is therefore more useful and practical for making decisions, especially when one deals with a tremendous amount of data. Methods and material: The proposed approach is illustrated using a real example of gastroenteritis LOS data. The data set was extracted from a retrospective cohort study on all infants born in 1995-1997 and their subsequent admissions for gastroenteritis. The total number of admissions in this data set was n = 692. Linked hospitalization records of the cohort were retrieved retrospectively to derive the outcome measure, patient demographics, and associated co-morbidities information. A comparative study of the incremental learning and the batch-mode learning algorithms is considered. The performances of the learning algorithms are compared based on the mean absolute difference (MAD) between the predictions and the actual LOS, and the proportion of predictions with MAD < 1 day (Prop(MAD < 1)). The significance of the comparison is assessed through a regression analysis. Results: The incremental learning algorithm provides better on-line prediction of LOS when the system has gained sufficient training from more examples (MAD = 1.77 days and Prop(MAD < 1) = 54.3%), compared to that using the batch-mode learning. The regression analysis indicates a significant decrease of MAD (p-value = 0.063) and a significant (p-value = 0.044) increase of Prop(MAD

Food intake and risk of squamous cell carcinoma of the skin in a community: The Nambour skin cancer cohort study

There is some evidence that dietary factors may modify the risk of squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the skin, but the association between food intake and SCC has not been evaluated prospectively. We examined the association between food intake and SCC incidence among 1,056 randomly selected adults living in an Australian sub-tropical community. Measurement-error corrected estimates of intake in 15 food groups were defined from a validated food frequency questionnaire in 1992. Associations with SCC risk were assessed using Poisson and negative binomial regression to the persons affected and tumour counts, respectively, based on incident, histologically confirmed tumours occurring between 1992 and 2002. After multivariable adjustment, none of the food groups was significantly associated with SCC risk. Stratified analysis in participants with a past history of skin cancer showed a decreased risk of SCC tumours for high intakes of green leafy vegetables (RR = 0.45, 95% CI = 0.22-0.91; p for trend = 0.02) and an increased risk for high intake of unmodified dairy products (RR = 2.53, 95% CI: 1.15-5.54; p for trend = 0.03). Food intake was not associated with SCC risk in persons who had no past history of skin cancer. These findings suggest that consumption of green leafy vegetables may help prevent development of subsequent SCCs of the skin among people with previous skin cancer and that consumption of unmodified dairy products, such as whole milk, cheese and yoghurt, may increase SCC risk in susceptible persons.

Prolonged effects of a home-based intervention in patients with chronic illness

Background: Data on the long-term benefits of nonspecific disease management programs are limited. We performed a long-term follow-up of a previously published randomized trial. Methods: We compared all-cause mortality and recurrent hospitalization during median follow-up of 7.5 years in a heterogeneous cohort of patients with chronic illness initially exposed to a multidisciplinary, homebased intervention (HBI) (n = 260) or to usual postdischarge care (n = 268). Results: During follow-up, HBI had no impact on all-cause mortality (relative risk, 1.04; 95% confidence interval, 0.80-1.35) or event-free survival from death or unplanned hospitalization (relative risk, 1.03; 95% confidence interval, 0.86-1.24). Initial analysis suggested that HBI had only a marginal impact in reducing unplanned hospitalization, with 677 readmissions vs 824 for the usual care group (mean +/- SD rate, 0.72 +/- 0.96 vs 0.84 +/- 1.20 readmissions/patient per year; P = .08). When accounting for increased hospital activity in HBI patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease during follow-up for 2 years, post hoc analyses showed that HBI reduced readmissions by 14% within 2 years in patients without this condition (mean +/- SD rate, 0.54 +/- 0.72 vs 0.63 +/- 0.88 readmission/patient per year; P =. 04) and by 21% in all surviving patients within 3 to 8 years (mean +/- SD rate, 0.64 +/- 1.26 vs 0.81 +/- 1.61 readmissions/ patient per year; P =. 03). Overall, recurrent hospital costs were significantly lower ( 14%) in the HBI group (mean +/- SD, $ 823 +/- $ 1642 vs $ 960 +/- $ 1376 per patient per year; P =. 045). Conclusion: This unique study suggests that a nonspecific HBI provides long-term cost benefits in a range of chronic illnesses, except for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Season of birth is associated with anthropometric and neurocognitive outcomes during infancy and childhood in a general population birth cohort

The 'season of birth' effect is one of the most consistently replicated associations in schizophrenia epidemiology. In contrast, the association between season of birth and development in the general Population is relatively poorly understood. The aim of this study was to explore the impact of season of birth on various anthropometric and neurocognitive variables from birth to age seven in a large, community-based birth cohort. A sample of white singleton infants born after 37 weeks gestation (n =22,123) was drawn from the US Collaborative Perinatal Project. Anthropometric variables (weight, head circumference, length/height) and various measures of neurocognitive development, were assessed at birth, 8 months, 4 and 7 years of age. Compared to surnmer/autumn born infants, winter/spring born infants were significantly longer at birth, and at age seven were significantly heavier, taller and had larger head circumference. Winter/spring born infants were achieving significantly higher scores on the Bayley Motor Score at 8 months, the Graham-Ernhart Block Test at age 4, the Wechsler Intelligence Performance and Full Scale scores at age 7, but had significantly lower scores on the Bender-Gestalt Test at age 7 years. Winter/spring birth, while associated with an increased risk of schizophrenia, is generally associated with superior outcomes with respect to physical and cognitive development. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using cohort studies to estimate mortality among injecting drug users that is not attributable to AIDS

Background: Injecting drug use (IDU) and associated mortality appear to be increasing in many parts of the world. IDU is an important factor in HIV transmission. In estimating AIDS mortality attributable to IDU, it is important to take account of premature mortality rates from other causes to ensure that AIDS related mortality among injecting drug users (IDUs) is not overestimated. The current review provides estimates of the excess non-AIDS mortality among IDUs. Method: Searches were conducted with Medline, PsycINFO, and the Web of Science. The authors also searched reference lists of identified papers and an earlier literature review by English et al (1995). Crude. mortality rates (CMRs) were derived from data on the number of deaths, period of follow UP, and number of participants. In estimating the all-cause mortality, two rates were calculated: one that included all cohort studies identified in the search, and one that only included studies that reported on AIDS deaths in their cohort. This provided lower and upper mortality rates, respectively. Results: The current paper derived weighted mortality rates based upon cohort studies that included 179 885 participants, 1 219 422 person-years of observation, and 16 593 deaths. The weighted crude AIDS mortality rate from studies that reported AIDS deaths was approximately 0.78% per annum. The median estimated non-AIDS mortality rate was 1.08% per annum. Conclusions: Illicit drug users have a greatly increased risk of premature death and mortality due to AIDS forms a significant part of that increased risk; it is, however, only part of that risk. Future work needs to examine mortality rates among IDUs in developing countries, and collect data on the relation between HIV and increased mortality due to all causes among this group.