A way forward for land-use planning to achieve policy goals by using spatial modelling scenarios

This paper investigates how demographic (socioeconomic) and land-use (physical and environmental) data can be integrated within a decision support framework to formulate and evaluate land-use planning scenarios. A case-study approach is undertaken with land-use planning scenarios for a rapidly growing coastal area in Australia, the Shire of Hervey Bay. The town and surrounding area require careful planning of the future urban growth between competing land uses. Three potential urban growth scenarios are put forth to address this issue. Scenario A ('continued growth') is based on existing socioeconomic trends. Scenario B ('maximising rates base') is derived using optimisation modelling of land-valuation data. Scenario C ('sustainable development') is derived using a number of social, economic, and environmental factors and assigning weightings of importance to each factor using a multiple criteria analysis approach. The land-use planning scenarios are presented through the use of maps and tables within a geographical information system, which delineate future possible land-use allocations up until 2021. The planning scenarios are evaluated by using a goal-achievement matrix approach. The matrix is constructed with a number of criteria derived from key policy objectives outlined in the regional growth management framework and town planning schemes. The authors of this paper examine the final efficiency scores calculated for each of the three planning scenarios and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the three land-use modelling approaches used to formulate the final scenarios.

Monitoring green turtles (Chelonia mydas) at a coastal foraging area in Baja California, Mexico: multiple indices to describe population status

From June 1995 to August 2002 we assessed green turtle (Chelonia mydas) population structure and survival, and identified human impact, at Bahia de los Angeles, a large bay that was once the site of the greatest sea turtle harvest rates in the Gulf of California, Mexico. Turtles were captured live with entanglement nets and mortality was quantified through stranding surveys and flipper tag recoveries. A total of 14,820 netting hours (617.5 d) resulted in 255 captures of 200 green turtles. Straight-carapace length and mass ranged from 46.0-100.0 cm (mean = 74.3 +/- 0.7 cm) and 14.5-145.0 kg (mean = 61.5 +/- 1.7 kg), respectively. The size-frequency distribution remained stable during all years and among all capture locations. Anthropogenic-derived injuries ranging from missing flippers to boat propeller scars were present in 4% of captured turtles. Remains of 18 turtles were found at dumpsites, nine stranded turtles were encountered in the study area, and flipper tags from seven turtles were recovered. Survival was estimated at 0.58 for juveniles and 0.97 for adults using a joint live-recapture and dead-recovery model (Burnham model). Low survival among juveniles, declining annual catch per unit effort, and the presence of butchered carcasses indicated human activities continue to impact green turtles at this foraging area.

Trade and culture history across the Vitiaz Strait, Papua New Guinea: The emerging post-Lapita coastal sequence

This paper, focusing principally on post-Lapita times, outlines the course and outcomes of work undertaken over the last two decades in the West New Britain-Vitiaz Strait-north New Guinea coastal region. It presents two principal arguments. The first is that major periods of movement and abandonment documented in the archaeological sequences of this region from about 3,500 years ago coincide with the record of volcanism in the Talasea-Cape Hoskins area. The second is that the post-Lapita sequences of this region differ significantly from the post-Lapita sequences emerging in the island arc reaching from Manus via New Ireland to southern and eastern island Melanesia, which show continuous occupation and pottery production.

A framework of lessons learned from community-based marine reserves and its effectiveness in guiding a new coastal management initiative in the Philippines

Community-based coastal resource management has been widely applied within the Philippines. However, small-scale community-based reserves are often inefficient owing to management inadequacies arising because of a lack of local support or enforcement or poor design. Because there are many potential pitfalls during the establishment of even small community-based reserves, it is important for coastal managers, communities, and facilitating institutions to have access to a summary of the key factors for success. Reviewing relevant literature, we present a framework of lessons learned during the establishment of protected areas, mainly in the Philippines. The framework contains summary guidance on the importance of (1) an island location, (2) small community population size, (3) minimal effect of land-based development, (4) application of a bottom-up approach, (5) an external facilitating institution, (6) acquisition of title, (7) use of a scientific information database, (8) stakeholder involvement, (9) the establishment of legislation, (10) community empowerment, (11) alternative livelihood schemes, (12) surveillance, (13) tangible management results, (14) continued involvement of external groups after reserve establishment, and (15) small-scale project expansion. These framework components guided the establishment of a community-based protected area at Danjugan Island, Negros Occidental, Philippines. This case study showed that the framework was a useful guide that led to establishing and implementing a community-based marine reserve. Evaluation of the reserve using standard criteria developed for the Philippines shows that the Danjugan Island protected area can be considered successful and sustainable. At Danjugan Island, all of the lessons synthesized in the framework were important and should be considered elsewhere, even for relatively small projects. As shown in previous projects in the Philippines, local involvement and stewardship of the protected area appeared particularly important for its successful implementation. The involvement of external organizations also seemed to have a key role in the success of the Danjugan Island project by guiding local decision-makers in the sociobiological principles of establishing protected areas. However, the relative importance of each component of the framework will vary between coastal management initiatives both within the Philippines and across the wider Asian region.

A broad-scale analysis of links between coastal fisheries production and mangrove extent: A case-study for northeastern Australia

The paradigm that mangroves are critical for sustaining production in coastal fisheries is widely accepted, but empirical evidence has been tenuous. This study showed that links between mangrove extent and coastal fisheries production could be detected for some species at a broad regional scale (1000s of kilometres) on the east coast of Queensland, Australia. The relationships between catch-per-unit-effort for different commercially caught species in four fisheries (trawl, line, net and pot fisheries) and mangrove characteristics, estimated from Landsat images were examined using multiple regression analyses. The species were categorised into three groups based on information on their life history characteristics, namely mangrove-related species (banana prawns Penaeus merguiensis, mud crabs Scylla serrata and barramundi Lates calcarifer), estuarine species (tiger prawns Penaeus esculentus and Penaeus semisulcatus, blue swimmer crabs Portunus pelagicus and blue threadfin Eleutheronema tetradactylum) and offshore species (coral trout Plectropomus spp.). For the mangrove-related species, mangrove characteristics such as area and perimeter accounted for most of the variation in the model; for the non-mangrove estuarine species, latitude was the dominant parameter but some mangrove characteristics (e.g. mangrove perimeter) also made significant contributions to the models. In contrast, for the offshore species, latitude was the dominant variable, with no contribution from mangrove characteristics. This study also identified that finer scale spatial data for the fisheries, to enable catch information to be attributed to a particular catchment, would help to improve our understanding of relationships between mangroves and fisheries production. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia: An example of the co-existence of significant marine mammal populations and large-scale coastal development

Recent analyses assert that large marine vertebrates such as marine mammals are now 'functionally or entirely extinct in most coastal ecosystems'. Moreton Bay is a large diverse marine ecosystem bordering the fastest growing area in Australia. The human population is over 1.6 million and increasing yearly by between 10% and 13% with resultant impacts upon the adjoining marine environment. Nonetheless, significant populations of three species of marine mammals are resident within Moreton Bay and a further 14 species are seasonal or occasional visitors. This paper reviews the current and historical distributions and abundance of these species in the context of the current management regime and suggests initiatives to increase the resilience of marine mammal populations to the changes wrought by the burgeoning human population in coastal environments. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Herbicides implicated as the cause of severe mangrove dieback in the Mackay region, NE Australia: consequences for marine plant habitats of the GBR World Heritage Area

Herbicides, particularly diuron, were correlated with severe and widespread dieback of the dominant mangrove, Avicennia marina (Forsk.) Vieth. var. eucalyptifolia (Val.) N.C. Duke (Avicenniaceae), its reduced canopy condition, and declines in seedling health within three neighbouring estuaries in the Mackay region of NE Australia. This unusual species-specific dieback, first observed in the early 1990s, had gotten notably worse by 2002 to affect > 30km(2) of mangroves in at least five adjacent estuaries in the region. Over the past century, agricultural production has responded well to the demands of increasing population with improvements in farm efficiency assisted by significant increases in the use of agricultural chemicals. However, with regular and episodic river flow events, these chemicals have sometimes found their way into estuarine and nearshore water and sediments where their effects on marine habitats have been largely unquantified. Investigations over the last three years in the Mackay region provide compelling evidence of diuron, and possibly other agricultural herbicides, as the most likely cause of the severe and widespread mangrove dieback. The likely consequences of such dieback included declines in coastal water quality with increased turbidity, nutrients and sediment deposition, as well as further dispersal of the toxic chemicals. The implications of such findings are immense since they describe not only the serious deterioration of protected and beneficial mangrove habitat but also the potential for significant direct and indirect effects on other highly-valued estuarine and marine habitats in the region, including seagrass beds and coral reefs of the Great Barrier Reef lagoon. This article reviews all key findings and observations to date and describes the essential correlative and causative evidence. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pesticide and herbicide residues in sediments and seagrasses from the Great Barrier Reef world heritage area and Queensland coast

Pesticides and herbicides including organochlorine compounds have had extensive current and past application by Queensland's intensive coastal agriculture industry as web as for a wide range of domestic, public health and agricultural purposes in urban areas, The persistent nature of these types of compounds together with possible continued illegal use of banned organochlorine compounds raises the potential for continued long-term chronic exposure to plants and animals of the Great Barrier Reef. Sediment and seagrass samples were collected from 16 intertidal and 25 subtidal sampling sites between Torres Strait and Townsville, near Mackay and Gladstone, and in Hervey and Moreton Bays in 1997 and 1998 and analysed for pesticide and herbicide residues. Low levels of atrazine (0.1-0.3 mug kg(-1)), diuron (0.2-10.1 mug kg(-1)), lindane (0.08-0.19 mug kg(-1)), dieldrin (0.05-0.37 mug kg(-1)), DDT (0.05-0.26 mug kg(-1)), and DDE (0.05-0.26 mug kg(-1)) were detected in sediments and/or seagrasses. Contaminants were mainly detected in samples collected along the high rainfall, tropical coast between Townsville and Port Douglas and in Moreton Bay. Of the contaminants detected, the herbicide diuron is of most concern as the concentrations detected have some potential to impact local seagrass communities, (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.