Quantification of geological uncertainty and risk using stochastic simulation and applications in the coal mining industry

Stochastic simulation is a recognised tool for quantifying the spatial distribution of geological uncertainty and risk in earth science and engineering. Metals mining is an area where simulation technologies are extensively used; however, applications in the coal mining industry have been limited. This is particularly due to the lack of a systematic demonstration illustrating the capabilities these techniques have in problem solving in coal mining. This paper presents two broad and technically distinct areas of applications in coal mining. The first deals with the use of simulation in the quantification of uncertainty in coal seam attributes and risk assessment to assist coal resource classification, and drillhole spacing optimisation to meet pre-specified risk levels at a required confidence. The second application presents the use of stochastic simulation in the quantification of fault risk, an area of particular interest to underground coal mining, and documents the performance of the approach. The examples presented demonstrate the advantages and positive contribution stochastic simulation approaches bring to the coal mining industry

Modern environmental improvement pathways for the coal power generation industry in Australia

In this work we assess the pathways for environmental improvement by the coal utilization industry for power generation in Australia. In terms of resources, our findings show that coal is a long term resource of concern as coal reserves are likely to last for the next 500 years or more. However, our analysis indicates that evaporation losses of water in power generation will approach 1000 Gl (gigalitres) per year, equivalent to a consumption of half of the Australian residential population. As Australia is the second driest continent on earth, water consumption by power generators is a resource of immediate concern with regards to sustainability. We also show that coal will continue to play a major role in energy generation in Australia and, hence, there is a need to employ new technologies that can minimize environmental impacts. The major technologies to reduce impacts to air, water and soils are addressed. Of major interest, there is a major potential for developing sequestration processes in Australia, in particular by enhanced coal bed methane (ECBM) recovery at the Bowen Basin, South Sydney Basin and Gunnedah Basin. Having said that, CO2 capture technologies require further development to support any sequestration processes in order to comply with the Kyoto Protocol. Current power generation cycles are thermodynamic limited, with 35-40% efficiencies. To move to a high efficiency cycle, it is required to change technologies of which integrated gasification combined cycle plus fuel cell is the most promising, with efficiencies expected to reach 60-65%. However, risks of moving towards an unproven technology means that power generators are likely to continue to use pulverized fuel technologies, aiming at incremental efficiency improvements (business as usual). As a big picture pathway, power generators are likely to play an increasing role in regional development; in particular EcoParks and reclaiming saline water for treatment as pressures to access fresh water supplies will significantly increase.