Long-term survivor mixture model with random effects: application to a multi-centre clinical trial of carcinoma

A mixture model incorporating long-term survivors has been adopted in the field of biostatistics where some individuals may never experience the failure event under study. The surviving fractions may be considered as cured. In most applications, the survival times are assumed to be independent. However, when the survival data are obtained from a multi-centre clinical trial, it is conceived that the environ mental conditions and facilities shared within clinic affects the proportion cured as well as the failure risk for the uncured individuals. It necessitates a long-term survivor mixture model with random effects. In this paper, the long-term survivor mixture model is extended for the analysis of multivariate failure time data using the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) approach. The proposed model is applied to analyse a numerical data set from a multi-centre clinical trial of carcinoma as an illustration. Some simulation experiments are performed to assess the applicability of the model based on the average biases of the estimates formed. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effect of central venous catheter type on infections: a prospective clinical trial

This study reports on a block clinical trial of two types of central venous catheters (CVCs): antiseptic-impregnated catheters (AIC) and non-impregnated catheters (non-AIC), on catheter tip colonization and bacteraemia. In total, 500 catheters were inserted in 390 patients over the 18 month study period, 260 (52.0%) AIC and 240 (48.0%) non-AIC. Of these, 460 (92.0%) tips (237 AIC and 223 non-AIC) were collected. While significantly fewer AIC, 14 (5.9%), than non-AIC, 30 (13.5%), catheters were colonized (P < 0.01), there was no difference in the rates of bacteraemias in the two groups (0.8% vs. 2.7%, respectively, P = 0.16). There were 6.87 (95% CI 3.38-14.26) and 16.92 (95% CI 10.61-27.12) colonized AIC and non-AIC catheters, respectively, per 1000 catheter days, a difference that was significant (P < 0.01). However, no difference emerged between bacteraemias in AIC and non-AIC catheters per 1000 catheter days measured at 0.98 (95% CI 0.24-5.54) and 3.38 (95% CI 1.29-9.34), respectively (P = 0.10). Of the 444 CVCs that were sited in the subclavian or jugular veins and had tips collected, significantly more catheters were colonized in the jugular group, 19 (20%), compared with the subclavian group, 24 (6.9%; P less than or equal to 0.01). Overall, the low rates of colonization and bacteraemia may be explained by the population studied, the policies used and the employment of a clinical nurse dedicated to CVC management. (C) 2003 The Hospital Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cot-nursing using a heated, water-filled mattress and incubator care: a randomized clinical trial

Aims: To evaluate the thermal responses and weight gain in preterm infants nursed in a cot on a heated, water-filled mattress (HWM) compared with infants receiving care in an air-heated incubator and to compare mothers' stress, anxiety levels and perceptions of their infants in the two groups. Methods: Stable preterm infants weighing 1300 to 1500 g were enrolled, being randomly allocated to either the study group (n = 41) receiving care in a cot on an HWM, or the control group ( n = 33) receiving incubator care. The mean daily body temperature and episodes of cold stress and hyperthermia were recorded. Weight gain (g kg(-1) body weight d(-1)) was also calculated. The mothers completed questionnaires on their perceptions of their infants, and their anxiety and stress levels before randomization, and 2 - 3 wk later during the trial. Results: The mean body temperature was similar for the first week of the trial ( study group 36.9degreesC vs controls 36.9degreesC). There were no significant differences in the incidence of cold stress, while more hyperthermic episodes were seen in the study group ( p = 0.03). There were no significant differences in weight gain during the first ( study group 21.4 g vs controls 19.6 g) or second weeks of the trial ( study group 20.5 g vs controls 19.2 g). Neonatal morbidity did not differ between the groups. There were no differences in mothers' perceptions of their babies, or feelings of stress or anxiety. Conclusion: There were no differences between infants cot-nursed on an HWM and those receiving incubator care, with the exception of episodes of high temperature. The results suggest that the HWM may be used safely for low-weight preterm infants.

Live Attenuated Chimeric Yellow Fever Dengue Type 2 (Chimeri Vax -DEN2) Vaccine: Phase 1 clinical trial for safety and immunogenicity

A randomized double-blind Phase I Trial was conducted to evaluate safety, tolerability, and immunogenicity of a yellow fever (YF)-dengue 2 (DEN2) chimera (ChimeriVax™-DEN2) in comparison to that of YF vaccine (YF-VAX®). Forty-two healthy YF naïve adults randomly received a single dose of either ChimeriVax™-DEN2 (high dose, 5 log plaque forming units [PFU] or low dose, 3 log PFU) or YF-VAXâ by the subcutaneous route (SC). To determine the effect of YF pre-immunity on the ChimeriVaxTM-DEN2 vaccine, 14 subjects previously vaccinated against YF received a high dose of ChimeriVax™-DEN2 as an open-label vaccine. Most adverse events were similar to YF-VAX® and of mild to moderate intensity, with no serious side-effects. One hundred percent and 92.3% of YF naïve subjects inoculated with 5.0 and 3.0 log10 PFU of ChimeriVaxTM-DEN2, respectively, seroconverted to wt DEN2 (strain 16681); 92% of subjects inoculated with YF-VAX® seroconverted to YF 17D virus but none of YF naïve subjects inoculated with ChimeriVax-DEN2 seroconverted to YF 17D virus. Low seroconversion rates to heterologous DEN serotypes 1, 3, and 4 were observed in YF naïve subjects inoculated with either ChimeriVax™-DEN2 or YF-VAX®. In contrast, 100% of YF immune subjects inoculated with ChimeriVax™-DEN2 seroconverted to all 4 DEN serotypes. Surprisingly, levels of neutralizing antibodies to DEN 1, 2, and 3 viruses in YF immune subjects persisted after 1 year. These data demonstrated that 1) the safety and immunogenicity profile of the ChimeriVax™-DEN2 vaccine is consistent with that of YF-VAX®, and 2) pre-immunity to YF virus does not interfere with ChimeriVaxTM-DEN2 immunization, but induces a long lasting and cross neutralizing antibody response to all 4 DEN serotypes. The latter observation can have practical implications toward development of a dengue vaccine.

Maternal health during pregnancy and perinatal mortality in Bangladesh: evidence form a large-scale community-based clinical trial

Perinatal mortality is very high in Bangladesh. In this setting, few community-level studies have assessed the influence of underlying maternal health factors on perinatal outcomes. We used the data from a community-based clinical controlled trial conducted between 1994 and 1997 in the catchment areas of a large MCH/FP hospital located in Mirpur, a suburban area of Dhaka in Bangladesh, to investigate the levels of perinatal mortality and its associated maternal health factors during pregnancy. A total of 2007 women were followed after recruitment up to delivery, maternal death, or until they dropped out of the study. Of these, 1584 who gave birth formed our study subjects. The stillbirth rate was 39.1 per 1000 births [95% confidence interval (CI) 39.0, 39.3] and the perinatal mortality rate (up to 3 days) was 54.3 per 1000 births [95% CI 54.0, 54.6] among the study population. In the fully adjusted logistic regression model, the risk of perinatal mortality was as high as 2.7 times [95% CI 1.5, 4.9] more likely for women with hypertensive disorders, 5.0 times [95% CI 2.3, 10.8] as high for women who had antepartum haemorrhage and 2.6 times [95% CI 1.2, 5.8] as high for women who had higher haemoglobin levels in pregnancy when compared with their counterparts. The inclusion of potential confounding variables such as poor obstetric history, sociodemographic characteristics and preterm delivery influenced only marginally the net effect of important maternal health factors associated with perinatal mortality. Perinatal mortality in the study setting was significantly associated with poor maternal health conditions during pregnancy. The results of this study point towards the urgent need for monitoring complications in high-risk pregnancies, calling for the specific components of the safe motherhood programme interventions that are designed to manage these complications of pregnancy.

The management of elderly patients with femoral fractures - A randomised controlled trial of early intervention versus standard care

Objective: To determine the effect of an early intervention program in an acute care setting on the length of stay in hospital of elderly patients with proximal femoral fractures. Setting: Acute orthopaedic ward of a large teaching hospital. Design and Participants: A randomised controlled trial comparing 38 intervention patients with 33 Standard Care patients. Intervention: Early surgery, minimal narcotic analgesia, intense daily therapy and close monitoring of patient needs via a multidisciplinary approach versus routine hospital management. Main outcome measures: Length of stay (LOS); deaths; level of independent functioning. Results: Mean LOS was shorter in the Intervention group than in the Standard Care group (21 days v. 32.5 days; P<0.01). After adjusting for other factors that could affect LOS (e.g. age, sex, pre-trauma functional levels, pre-trauma comorbidity and postsurgical complications), the Intervention program was significantly predictive of shorter LOS (P=0.01). The Intervention group did not experience greater numbers of deaths, deterioration in function or need for social support than the Standard Care group. Conclusion: This early intervention program in an acute care setting results in significantly shorter length of hospital stay for elderly patients with femoral fractures.

The VITATOPS (vitamins to prevent stroke) Trial: Rationale and design of an international, large, simple, randomised trial of homocysteine-lowering multivitamin therapy in patients with recent transient ischaemic attack or stroke

Background: Epidemiological studies suggest that raised plasma concentrations of total homocysteine (tHcy) may be a common, causal and treatable risk factor for atherothromboembolic ischaemic stroke. Although tHcy can be lowered effectively with small doses of folic acid, vitamin B-12 and vitamin B-6, it is not known whether lowering tHcy, by means of multivitamin therapy, can prevent stroke and other major atherothromboembolic vascular events. Purpose: To determine whether vitamin supplements (folic acid 2 mg, B-6 25 Mg, B-12 500 mug) reduce the risk of stroke, and other serious vascular events, in patients with recent stroke or transient ischaemic attacks of the brain or eye (TIA). Methods: An international, multi-centre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial. Results: As of November 2001, more than 1,400 patients have been randomised from 10 countries in four continents. Conclusion: VITATOPS aims to recruit and follow up 8,000 patients between 2000 and 2004, and provide a reliable estimate of the safety and effectiveness of dietary supplementation with folic acid, vitamin B-12, and vitamin B-6 in reducing recurrent serious vascular events among a wide range of patients with TIA and stroke. Copyright (C) 2002 S. Karger AG, Basel.

A randomized trial comparing hormone replacement therapy (HRT) and HRT plus calcitriol in the treatment of postmenopausal osteoporosis with vertebral fractures: Benefit of the combination on total body and hip density

We report a prospective, randomized, multi-center, open-label 2-year trial of 81 postmenopausal women aged 53-79 years with at least one minimal-trauma vertebral fracture (VF) and low (T-score below 2) lumbar bone mineral density (BMD). Group HRT received piperazine estrone sulfate (PES) 0.625 - 1.25 mg/d +/- medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA) 2.5 - 5 mg/d,- group HRT/D received HRT plus calcitriol 0.25 mug bd. All with a baseline dietary calcium (Ca) of < I g/d received Ca carbonate 0.6 g nocte. Final data were on 66 - 70 patients. On HRT/D, significant (P < 0.001) BNID increases from baseline by DXA were at total body - head, trochanter, Ward's, total hip, inter-trochanter and femoral shaft (% group mean Delta 4.2, 6.1, 9.3. 3.7. 3.3 and 3.3%, respectively). On HRT, at these significant Deltas were restricted to the trochanter and sites. si Wards. Significant advantages of HRT/D over HRT were in BMD of total body (- head), total hip and trochanter (all P = 0.01). The differences in mean Delta at these sites were 1.3, 2.6 and 3.9%. At the following, both groups Improved significantly -lumbar spine (AP and lateral), forearm shaft and ultradistal tibia/fibula. The weightbearing, site - specific benefits of the combination associated with significant suppression of parathyroid hormone-suggest a beneficial effect on cortical bone. Suppression of bone turnover was significantly greater on HRT/D (serum osteocalcin P = 0.024 and urinary hydroxyproline/creatinine ratio P = 0.035). There was no significant difference in the number of patients who developed fresh VFs during the trial (HRT 8/36, 22%; HRT/D 4/34, 12% - intention to treat); likewise in the number who developed incident nonvertebral fractures. This Is the first study comparing the 2 treatments in a fracture population. The results indicate a significant benefit of calcitriol combined with HRT on total body BMD and on BNID at the hip, the major site of osteoporotic fracture.

Surgical outcomes of a randomized prospective trial involving patients with a proximal femoral fracture

Background: An orthopaedic management/patient-focused care unit (OMPFCU) involving a dedicated orthopaedic-geriatrics liaison team was established at the Royal Brisbane Hospital in 1994 in an effort to safely accelerate rehabilitation of patients with proximal femoral fractures. Methods: The surgical outcomes of the patients were monitored in order to determine whether accelerated rehabilitation had any significant adverse effects on the surgical outcomes, measured by mortality, readmission to hospital, deep wound infection, fracture union delay, mobility and the revision surgery rate. Results: No significant difference was recorded in mortality and morbidity, deep wound infection and revision surgery rates between patients in the Royal Brisbane Hospital OMPFCU and those in standard care in the orthopaedic surgery wards. Conclusion: Accelerated rehabilitation for patients with a proximal femoral fracture in a major teaching hospital can be accomplished safely.

Randomisation in clinical trials

Randomisation is the process of assigning clinical trial participants to treatment groups. Randomisation gives each participant a known (usually equal) chance of being assigned to any of the groups. Successful randomisation requires that group assignment cannot be predicted in advance.

Periextubation caffeine in preterm neonates: A randomized dose response trial

Objective: To compare the effectiveness of three dosing regimens of caffeine for preterm infants in the periextubation period. Methods: A randomized double-blind clinical trial of three dosing regimens of caffeine citrate ( 3, 15 and 30 mg/kg) for periextubation management of ventilated preterm infants was undertaken. Infants born < 32 weeks gestation who were ventilated for > 48 h were eligible for the study. Caffeine citrate was given as a once daily dose for a period of 6 days commencing 24 h prior to a planned extubation, or within 6 h of an unplanned extubation. The primary outcome measure was extubation failure, defined as neonates who were unable to be extubated within 48 h of caffeine loading or who required reventilation or doxapram dose within 7 days of caffeine loading. Continuous recordings of oxygen saturation and heart rate were undertaken in a subgroup of enrolled infants. Results: A total of 127 babies were enrolled into the study ( 42, 40, 45, in the 3, 15, and 30 mg/kg groups, respectively). No statistically significant difference was demonstrated in the incidence of extubation failure between dosing groups ( 19, 10, and 11 infants in the 3, 15, and 30 mg/kg groups, respectively), however, infants in the two higher dose groups had statistically significantly less documented apnoea than the lowest dose group. Of the 37 neonates with continuous pulse oximetry recordings, those on higher doses of caffeine recorded a statistically significantly higher mean heart rate, oxygen saturations and less time with oxygen saturations < 85%. Conclusions: This trial indicated there were short-term benefits of decreased apnoea in the immediate periextubation period for ventilated infants born < 32 weeks gestation receiving higher doses of caffeine. Further studies with larger numbers of infants assessing longer-term outcomes are necessary to determine the optimal dosing regimen of caffeine in preterm infants.