Causes and consequences of long-term climatic variability on the Australian continent

1. Ice-volume forced glacial-interglacial cyclicity is the major cause of global climate variation within the late Quaternary period. Within the Australian region, this variation is expressed predominantly as oscillations in moisture availability. Glacial periods were substantially drier than today with restricted distribution of mesic plant communities, shallow or ephemeral water bodies and extensive aeolian dune activity. 2. Superimposed on this cyclicity in Australia is a trend towards drier and/or more variable climates within the last 350 000 years. This trend may have been initiated by changes in atmospheric and ocean circulation resulting from Australia's continued movement into the Southeast Asian region and involving the onset or intensification of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation system and a reduction in summer monsoon activity. 3. Increased biomass burning, stemming originally from increased climatic variability and later enhanced by activities of indigenous people, resulted in a more open and sclerophyllous vegetation, increased salinity and a further reduction in water availability. 4. Past records combined with recent observations suggest that the degree of environmental variability will increase and the drying trend will be enhanced in the foreseeable future, regardless of the extent or nature of human intervention.

Analysis of long-term light-trap data for Helicoverpa spp. (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) in Australia: the effect of climate and crop host plants

Regression analyses of a long series of light-trap catches at Narrabri, Australia, were used to describe the seasonal dynamics of Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner). The size of the second generation was significantly related to the size of the first generation, to winter rainfall, which had a positive effect, and to spring rainfall which had a negative effect. These variables accounted for up to 96% of the variation in size of the second generation from year to year. Rainfall and crop hosts were also important for the size of the third generation. The area and tonnage of many potential host crops were significantly correlated with winter rain. When winter rain was omitted from the analysis, the sizes of both the second and third generations could be expressed as a function of the size of the previous generation and of the areas planted to lucerne, sorghum and maize. Lucerne and maize always had positive coefficients and sorghum a negative one. We extended our analysis to catches of H. punctigera (Wallengren), which declines in abundance after the second generation. Winter rain had a positive effect on the sizes of the second and third generations, and rain in spring or early summer had a negative effect. Only the area grown to lucerne had a positive effect on abundance. Forecasts of pest levels from a few months to a few weeks in advance are discussed, along with the improved understanding of the seasonal dynamics of both species and the significance of crops in the management of insecticide resistance for H. armigera.

Geographic variation of notified Ross River virus infections in Queensland, Australia, 1985-1996

The spatial and temporal variations of Ross River virus infections reported in Queensland, Australia, between 1985 and 1996 were studied by using the Geographic Information System. The notified cases of Ross River virus infection came from 489 localities between 1985 and 1988, 805 between 1989 and 1992, and 1,157 between 1993 and 1996 (X (2)((df = 2)) = 680.9; P < 0.001). There was a marked increase in the number of localities where the cases were reported by 65 percent for the period of 1989-1992 and 137 percent for 1993-1996, compared with that for 1985-1988. The geographic distribution of the notified Ross River virus cases has expanded in Queensland over recent years. As Ross River virus disease has impacted considerably on tourism and industry, as well as on residents of affected areas, more research is required to explore the causes of the geographic expansion of the notified Ross River virus infections.

Variation in body size and sexual dimorphism across geographical and environmental space in the frogs Limnodynastes tasmaniensis and L. peronii

This study aimed to identify potential factors responsible for geographically structured morphological variation within the widespread Australian frogs Limnodynastes tasmaniensis Gunther and L. peronii Dumeril & Bibron. There was support for James's rule, and both latitude and present climate explained large amounts of the variation in body size and shape (particularly in L. peronii). There was also some support for the influence of several biogeographical barriers. Finally, both species were sexually dimorphic for body size and the degree of sexual size dimorphism (SSD) varied geographically. Climate was an important explanation for SSD variation in L. peronii, while latitude was most important for L. tasmaniensis. Geographical variations in sexual selection via male-male physical competition and climate-related resources are suggested as potential explanations for SSD variation in L. peronii. (C) 2004 The Linnean Society of London.

Implications of seasonal climate forecasts on world wheat trade: a stochastic, dynamic analysis

Improvements in seasonal climate forecasts have potential economic implications for international agriculture. A stochastic, dynamic simulation model of the international wheat economy is developed to estimate the potential effects of seasonal climate forecasts for various countries' wheat production, exports and world trade. Previous studies have generally ignored the stochastic and dynamic aspects of the effects associated with the use of climate forecasts. This study shows the importance of these aspects. In particular with free trade, the use of seasonal forecasts results in increased producer surplus across all exporting countries. In fact, producers appear to capture a large share of the economic surplus created by using the forecasts. Further, the stochastic dimensions suggest that while the expected long-run benefits of seasonal forecasts are positive, considerable year-to-year variation in the distribution of benefits between producers and consumers should be expected. The possibility exists for an economic measure to increase or decrease over a 20-year horizon, depending on the particular sequence of years.

Effect of rainfall as a component of climate change on estuarine fish production in Queensland, Australia

The speculation that climate change may impact on sustainable fish production suggests a need to understand how these effects influence fish catch on a broad scale. With a gross annual value of A$ 2.2 billion, the fishing industry is a significant primary industry in Australia. Many commercially important fish species use estuarine habitats such as mangroves, tidal flats and seagrass beds as nurseries or breeding grounds and have lifecycles correlated to rainfall and temperature patterns. Correlation of catches of mullet (e.g. Mugil cephalus) and barramundi (Lates calcarifer) with rainfall suggests that fisheries may be sensitive to effects of climate change. This work reviews key commercial fish and crustacean species and their link to estuaries and climate parameters. A conceptual model demonstrates ecological and biophysical links of estuarine habitats that influences capture fisheries production. The difficulty involved in explaining the effect of climate change on fisheries arising from the lack of ecological knowledge may be overcome by relating climate parameters with long-term fish catch data. Catch per unit effort (CPUE), rainfall, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and catch time series for specific combinations of climate seasons and regions have been explored and surplus production models applied to Queensland's commercial fish catch data with the program CLIMPROD. Results indicate that up to 30% of Queensland's total fish catch and up to 80% of the barramundi catch variation for specific regions can be explained by rainfall often with a lagged response to rainfall events. Our approach allows an evaluation of the economic consequences of climate parameters on estuarine fisheries. thus highlighting the need to develop forecast models and manage estuaries for future climate chan e impact by adjusting the quota for climate change sensitive species. Different modelling approaches are discussed with respect to their forecast ability. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regional climate change and harmful algal blooms in the northeast Atlantic

We investigated long-term spatial variability in a number of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder. Over the last four decades. some dinoflagellate taxa showed pronounced variation in the south and east of the North Sea, with the most significant increases being restricted to the adjacent waters off Norway. There was also a general decrease along the eastern coast of the United Kingdom. The most prominent feature in the interannual bloom frequencies over the last four decades was the anomalously high values recorded in the late 1980s in the northern and central North Sea areas. The only mesoscale area in the northeast Atlantic to show a significant increase in bloom formation over the last decade was the Norwegian coastal region. The changing spatial patterns of HAB taxa and the frequency of bloom formation are discussed in relation to regional climate change, in particular, changes in temperature, salinity, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Areas highly vulnerable to the effects of regional climate change on HABs are Norwegian coastal waters and the Skagerrak. Other vulnerable areas include Danish coastal waters, and to a lesser extent, the German and Dutch Bight and the northern Irish Sea. Quite apart from eutrophication, our results give a preview of what might happen to certain HAB genera under changing climatic conditions in temperate environments and their responses to variability of climate oscillations Such as the NAO.

Allelic Variation Investigation of the Estrogen Receptor Within an Australian Multiple Sclerosis Population

Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a central nervous system (CNS) chronic inflammatory demyelinating disease leading to various neurological disabilities. The disorder is more prevalent for women with a ratio of 3:2 female to male. Objectives: To investigate variation within the estrogen receptor 1 (ESR1) polymorphism gene in an Australian MS case-control population using two intragenic restriction fragment length polymorphisms; the G594A located in exon 8 detected with the BtgI restriction enzyme and T938C located in intron 1, detected with PvuII. One hundred and ten Australian MS patients were studied, with patients classified clinically as Relapsing Remitting MS (RR-MS), Secondary Progressive MS (SP-MS) or Primary Progressive MS (PP-MS). Also, 110 age, sex and ethnicity matched controls were investigated as a comparative group. No significant difference in the allelic distribution frequency was found between the case and control groups for the ESR1 PvuII (P = 0.50) and Btg1 (P = 0.45) marker. Our results do not support a role for these two ESR1 markers in multiple sclerosis susceptibility, however other markers within ESR1 should not be excluded for potential involvement in the disorder.

Norwegian long-distance reflexives: Lectal variation and speaker attitudes

10 lectal variables were examined with respect to Norwegian speakers' acceptance of long-distance reflexives (LDR), using a questionnaire to elicit grammaticality judgements on 50 potential LDR sentences. A sample of 180 speakers completed the questionnaire. The data was analysed using a general linear model univariate model, and Spearman's correlation. In this sample the results showed that dialect and level of education had significant effects on speakers' acceptance of long-distance reflexives, while sex, age, being a native speaker, having both native-speaker parents, living in the city or the country, and the speaker's attitudes to the two Norwegian writing languages had no influence on speakers' acceptance of long-distance reflexives. It is suggested that the influence of Danish on Norwegian writing and on the southern dialects may be the cause of the observed variation with respect to LDR in Norwegian.

Effects of temperature-dependent viscosity variation on entropy generation, heat and fluid flow through a porous-saturated duct of rectangular cross-section

Effect of temperature-dependent viscosity on fully developed forced convection in a duct of rectangular cross-section occupied by a fluid-saturated porous medium is investigated analytically. The Darcy flow model is applied and the viscosity-temperature relation is assumed to be an inverse-linear one. The case of uniform heat flux on the walls, i.e. the H boundary condition in the terminology of Kays and Crawford, is treated. For the case of a fluid whose viscosity decreases with temperature, it is found that the effect of the variation is to increase the Nusselt number for heated walls. Having found the velocity and the temperature distribution, the second law of thermodynamics is invoked to find the local and average entropy generation rate. Expressions for the entropy generation rate, the Bejan number, the heat transfer irreversibility, and the fluid flow irreversibility are presented in terms of the Brinkman number, the Péclet number, the viscosity variation number, the dimensionless wall heat flux, and the aspect ratio (width to height ratio). These expressions let a parametric study of the problem based on which it is observed that the entropy generated due to flow in a duct of square cross-section is more than those of rectangular counterparts while increasing the aspect ratio decreases the entropy generation rate similar to what previously reported for the clear flow case.

One size doesn't fit all: Research methodologies in a language variation study of Sudanese teens

The research reported here draws on a study of five teenagers from a Dinka-speaking community of Sudanese settling in Australia. A range of factors including language proficiency, social network structure and language attitudes are examined as possible causes for the variability of language use. The results and discussion illustrate how the use of a triangular research approach captured the complexity of the participants' language situation and was critical to developing a full understanding of the interplay of factors influencing the teens' language maintenance and shift in a way that no single method could. Further, it shows that employment of different methodologies allowed for flexibility in data collection to ensure the fullest response from participants. Overall, this research suggests that for studies of non-standard communities, variability in research methods may prove more of a strength that the use of standardised instruments and approaches.

Geographic variation and positive selection on M7 lysin, an acrosomal sperm protein in mussels (Mytilus spp.)

Successful fertilization in free-spawning marine organisms depends on the interactions between genes expressed on the surfaces of eggs and sperm. Positive selection frequently characterizes the molecular evolution of such genes, raising the possibility that some common deterministic process drives the evolution of gamete recognition genes and may even be important for understanding the evolution of prezygotic isolation and speciation in the marine realm. One hypothesis is that gamete recognition genes are subject to selection for prezygotic isolation, namely reinforcement. In a previous study, positive selection on the gene coding for the acrosomal sperm protein M7 lysin was demonstrated among allopatric populations of mussels in the Mytilus edulis species group (M. edulis, M. galloprovincialis, and M. trossulus). Here, we expand sampling to include M7 lysin haplotypes from populations where mussel species are sympatric and hybridize to determine whether there is a pattern of reproductive character displacement, which would be consistent with reinforcement driving selection on this gene. We do not detect a strong pattern of reproductive character displacement; there are no unique haplotypes in sympatry nor is there consistently greater population structure in comparisons involving sympatric populations. One distinct group of haplotypes, however, is strongly affected by natural selection and this group of haplotypes is found within M. galloprovincialis populations throughout the Northern Hemisphere concurrent with haplotypes common to M. galloprovincialis and M. edulis. We suggest that balancing selection, perhaps resulting from sexual conflicts between sperm and eggs, maintains old allelic diversity within M. galloprovincialis.

Improved constraints on possible variation of physical constants from HI 21-cm and molecular QSO absorption lines

Quasar (QSO) absorption spectra provide an extremely useful probe of possible cosmological variation in various physical constants. Comparison of H i 21-cm absorption with corresponding molecular (rotational) absorption spectra allows us to constrain variation in , where α is the fine-structure constant and gp is the proton g-factor. We analyse spectra of two QSOs, PKS 1413+135 and TXS 0218+357, and derive values of at absorption redshifts of and 0.6847 by simultaneous fitting of the H i 21-cm and molecular lines. We find and respectively, indicating an insignificantly smaller y in the past. We compare our results with other constraints from the same two QSOs given recently by Drinkwater et al. and Carilli et al., and with our recent optical constraints, which indicated a smaller α at higher redshifts.