Accelerating precursory activity within a class of earthquake analogue automata

A statistical fractal automaton model is described which displays two modes of dynamical behaviour. The first mode, termed recurrent criticality, is characterised by quasi-periodic, characteristic events that are preceded by accelerating precursory activity. The second mode is more reminiscent of SOC automata in which large events are not preceded by an acceleration in activity. Extending upon previous studies of statistical fractal automata, a redistribution law is introduced which incorporates two model parameters: a dissipation factor and a stress transfer ratio. Results from a parameter space investigation indicate that a straight line through parameter space marks a transition from recurrent criticality to unpredictable dynamics. Recurrent criticality only occurs for models within one corner of the parameter space. The location of the transition displays a simple dependence upon the fractal correlation dimension of the cell strength distribution. Analysis of stress field evolution indicates that recurrent criticality occurs in models with significant long-range stress correlations. A constant rate of activity is associated with a decorrelated stress field.

A multilocus perspective on refugial isolation and divergence in rainforest skinks (Carlia)

To explore the evolutionary consequences of climate-induced fluctuations in distribution of rainforest habitat we contrasted demographic histories of divergence among three lineages of Australian rainforest endemic skinks. The red-throated rainbow skink, Carlia rubrigularis, consists of morphologically indistinguishable northern and southern mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) lineages that are partially reproductively isolated at their parapatric boundary. The third lineage (C. rhomboidalis) inhabits rainforests just to the south of C. rubrigularis, has blue, rather than red-throated males, and for mtDNA is more closely related to southern C. rubrigularis than is northern C. rubrigularis. Multigene coalescent analyses supported more recent divergence between morphologically distinct lineages than between morphologically conservative lineages. There was effectively no migration and therefore stronger isolation between southern C. rubrigularis and C. rhomboidalis, and low unidirectional migration between morphologically conservative lineages of C. rubrigularis. We found little or no evidence for strong differences in effective population size, and hence different contributions of genetic drift in the demographic history of the three lineages. Overall the results suggest contrasting responses to long-term fluctuations in rainforest habitats, leading to varying opportunities for speciation.

Validation and refinement of survival models for liver retransplantation

Orthotopic liver retransplantation (re-OLT) is highly controversial. The objectives of this study were to determine the validity of a recently developed United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) multivariate model using an independent cohort of patients undergoing re-OLT outside the United States, to determine whether incorporation of other variables that were incomplete in the UNOS registry would provide additional prognostic information, to develop new models combining data sets from both cohorts, and to evaluate the validity of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) in patients undergoing re-OLT. Two hundred eighty-one adult patients undergoing re-OLT (between 1986 and 1999) at 6 foreign transplant centers comprised the validation cohort. We found good agreement between actual survival and predicted survival in the validation cohort; 1-year patient survival rates in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups (as assigned by the original UNOS model) were 72%, 68%, and 36%, respectively (P < .0001). In the patients for whom the international normalized ratio (INR) of prothrombin time was available, MELD correlated with outcome following re-OLT; the median MELD scores for patients surviving at least 90 days compared with those dying within 90 days were 20.75 versus 25.9, respectively (P = .004). Utilizing both patient cohorts (n = 979), a new model, based on recipient age, total serum bilirubin, creatinine, and interval to re-OLT, was constructed (whole model χ(2) = 105, P < .0001). Using the c-statistic with 30-day, 90-day, 1-year, and 3-year mortality as the end points, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for 4 different models were compared. In conclusion, prospective validation and use of these models as adjuncts to clinical decision making in the management of patients being considered for re-OLT are warranted.

A refined solution to Earth's hidden niobium: implications for evolution of continental crust and mode of core formation

New high-precision niobium (Nb) and tantalum (Ta) concentration data are presented for early Archaean metabasalts, metabasaltic komatiites and their erosion products (mafic metapelites) from SW Greenland and the Acasta gneiss complex, Canada. Individual datasets consistently show sub-chondritic Nb/Ta ratios averaging 15.1+/-11.6. This finding is discussed with regard to two competing models for the solution of the Nb-deficit that characterises the accessible Earth. Firstly, we test whether Nb could have sequestered into the core due to its slightly siderophile (or chalcophile) character under very reducing conditions, as recently proposed from experimental evidence. We demonstrate that troilite inclusions of the Canyon Diablo iron meteorite have Nb and V concentrations in excess of typical chondrites but that the metal phase of the Grant, Toluca and Canyon Diablo iron meteorites do not have significant concentrations of these lithophile elements. We find that if the entire accessible Earth Nb-deficit were explained by Nb in the core, only ca. 17% of the mantle could be depleted and that by 3.7 Ga, continental crust would have already achieved ca. 50% of its present mass. Nb/Ta systematics of late Archaean metabasalts compiled from the literature would further require that by 2.5 Ga, 90% of the present mass of continental crust was already in existence. As an alternative to this explanation, we propose that the average Nb/Ta ratio (15.1+/-11.6) of Earth's oldest mafic rocks is a valid approximation for bulk silicate Earth. This would require that ca. 13% of the terrestrial Nb resided in the Ta-free core. Since the partitioning of Nb between silicate and metal melts depends largely on oxygen fugacity and pressure, this finding could mean that metal/silicate segregation did not occur at the base of a deep magma ocean or that the early mantle was slightly less reducing than generally assumed. A bulk silicate Earth Nb/Ta ratio of 15.1 allows for depletion of up to 40% of the total mantle. This could indicate that in addition to the upper mantle, a portion of the lower mantle is depleted also, or if only the upper mantle were depleted, an additional hidden high Nb/Ta reservoir must exist. Comparison of Nb/Ta systematics between early and late Archaean metabasalts supports the latter idea and indicates deeply subducted high Nb/Ta eclogite slabs could reside in the mantle transition zone or the lower mantle. Accumulation of such slabs appears to have commenced between 2.5 and 2.0 Ga. Regardless of these complexities of terrestrial Nb/Ta systematics, it is shown that the depleted mantle Nb/Th ratio is a very robust proxy for the amount of extracted continental crust, because the temporal evolution of this ratio is dominated by Th-loss to the continents and not Nb-retention in the mantle. We present a new parameterisation of the continental crust volume versus age curve that specifically explores the possibility of lithophile element loss to the core and storage of eclogite slabs in the transition zone. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Economic competition and evolution: Are there lessons from ecology?

After generally discussing models in ecology and economics that combine competition, optimization, and evolution, this article concentrates on models of intraspecific competition. It demonstrates the importance of diversity/inequalities within populations of species and other environments for the sustainability of their populations, given the occurrence of environmental change. This is demonstrated both for scramble (open-access) and contest competition. Implications are drawn for human populations and industrial organization. The possibility is raised that within-industry competition may not always exist between firms in all stages of the development of a new industry. Policy implications are considered. For example, it is argued that policies designed to encourage intense business competition and maximum economic efficiency have the drawback of eventually making industries highly vulnerable to exogenous economic changes.

How primatology can inform us about the evolution of the humand mind

Humans are primates. We have evolved from common ancestors and the evolution of the human body is becoming increasingly clear as the archeological record expands. But for most people the gap between humans and animals lies in the mind, not in the body. And minds do not fossilise. To reconstruct the evolution of mind, scholars have thus increasingly looked to our closest relatives for clues. Here I discuss four ways in which the study of primates may inform such reconstruction: fact-finding, phylogenetic reconstruction, analogy, and regression models. Knowledge about primates can help us bridge the gap. Extinction of our closest relatives, on the other hand, would not only deplete that source of information but also increase the apparent differences between animal and human minds. It is likely that we have a long history of displacing closely related species, including the other hominids, leading us to appear ever more unique.

The functions of societies and the evolution of group living: Spider societies as a test case

Many models have been advanced to suggest how different expressions of sociality have evolved and are maintained. However these models ignore the function of groups for the particular species in question. Here we present a new perspective on sociality where the function of the group takes a central role. We argue that sociality may have primarily a reproductive, protective, or foraging function, depending on whether it enhances the reproductive, protective or foraging aspect of the animal's life (sociality may serve a mixture of these functions). Different functions can potentially cause the development of the same social behaviour. By identifying which function influences a particular social behaviour we can determine how that social behaviour will change with changing conditions, and which models are most pertinent. To test our approach we examined spider sociality, which has often been seen as the poor cousin to insect sociality. By using our approach we found that the group characteristics of eusocial insects is largely governed by the reproductive function of their groups, while the group characteristics of social spiders is largely governed by the foraging function of the group. This means that models relevant to insects may not be relevant to spiders. It also explains why eusocial insects have developed a strict caste system while spider societies are more egalitarian. We also used our approach to explain the differences between different types of spider groups. For example, differences in the characteristics of colonial and kleptoparasitic groups can be explained by differences in foraging methods, while differences between colonial and cooperative spiders can be explained by the role of the reproductive function in the formation of cooperative spider groups. Although the interactions within cooperative spider colonies are largely those of a foraging society, demographic traits and colony dynamics are strongly influenced by the reproductive function. We argue that functional explanations help to understand the social structure of spider groups and therefore the evolutionary potential for speciation in social spiders.

Forecasting Helicoverpa populations in Australia: A comparison of regression based models and a bio-climatic based modeling approach

Long-term forecasts of pest pressure are central to the effective management of many agricultural insect pests. In the eastern cropping regions of Australia, serious infestations of Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) and H. armigera (Hübner)(Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) are experienced annually. Regression analyses of a long series of light-trap catches of adult moths were used to describe the seasonal dynamics of both species. The size of the spring generation in eastern cropping zones could be related to rainfall in putative source areas in inland Australia. Subsequent generations could be related to the abundance of various crops in agricultural areas, rainfall and the magnitude of the spring population peak. As rainfall figured prominently as a predictor variable, and can itself be predicted using the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trap catches were also related to this variable. The geographic distribution of each species was modelled in relation to climate and CLIMEX was used to predict temporal variation in abundance at given putative source sites in inland Australia using historical meteorological data. These predictions were then correlated with subsequent pest abundance data in a major cropping region. The regression-based and bioclimatic-based approaches to predicting pest abundance are compared and their utility in predicting and interpreting pest dynamics are discussed.