Practical considerations for the measurement of free light chains in serum

Background: A new immunoassay for free light chain measurements has been reported to be useful for the diagnosis and monitoring of monoclonal light chain diseases and nonsecretory myeloma. We describe experience with and some potential pitfalls of the assay. Methods: The assay was assessed for precision, sample type and stability, recovery, and harmonization of results between two analyzers on which the reagents are used. Free-light-chain concentrations were measured in healthy individuals (to determine biological variation), patients with monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance, myeloma patients after autologous stem cell transplants, and patients with renal disease. Results: Analytical imprecision (CV) was 6-11% for kappa and A free-light-chain measurement and 16% for the calculated kappa/lambda ratio. Biological variation was generally insignificant compared with analytical variation. Despite the same reagent source, values were not completely harmonized between assay systems and may produce discordant free-light-chain ratios. In some patients with clinically stable myeloma, or post transplantation, or with monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance, free-light-chain concentration and ratio were within the population reference interval despite the presence of monoclonal intact immunoglobulin in serum. In other patients with monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance, values were abnormal although there was no clinical evidence of progression to multiple myeloma. Conclusions: The use of free-light-chain measurements alone cannot differentiate some groups of patients with monoclonal gammopathy from healthy individuals. As with the introduction of any new test, it is essential that more scientific data about use of this assay in different subject groups are available so that results can be interpreted with clinical certainty. (C) 2003 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

Events in Indonesia: exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting methods in complex crisis situations

The desire to know the future is as old as humanity. For the tourism industry the demand for accurate foretelling of the future course of events is a task that consumes considerable energy and is of great significance to investors. This paper examines the issue of forecasting by comparing forecasts of inbound tourism made prior to the political and economic crises that engulfed Indonesia from 1997 onwards with actual arrival figures. The paper finds that current methods of forecasting are not able to cope with unexpected crises and other disasters and that alternative methods need to be examined including scenarios, political risk and application of chaos theory. The paper outlines a framework for classifying shocks according to a scale of severity, probability, type of event, level of certainty and suggested forecasting tools for each scale of shock. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A theory for optimal monitoring of marine reserves

Monitoring of marine reserves has traditionally focused on the task of rejecting the null hypothesis that marine reserves have no impact on the population and community structure of harvested populations. We consider the role of monitoring of marine reserves to gain information needed for management decisions. In particular we use a decision theoretic framework to answer the question: how long should we monitor the recovery of an over-fished stock to determine the fraction of that stock to reserve? This exposes a natural tension between the cost (in terms of time and money) of additional monitoring, and the benefit of more accurately parameterizing a population model for the stock, that in turn leads to a better decision about the optimal size for the reserve with respect to harvesting. We found that the optimal monitoring time frame is rarely more than 5 years. A higher economic discount rate decreased the optimal monitoring time frame, making the expected benefit of more certainty about parameters in the system negligible compared with the expected gain from earlier exploitation.

Brain maps, great and small: lessons from comparative studies of primate visual cortical organization

In this paper, we review evidence from comparative studies of primate cortical organization, highlighting recent findings and hypotheses that may help us to understand the rules governing evolutionary changes of the cortical map and the process of formation of areas during development. We argue that clear unequivocal views of cortical areas and their homologies are more likely to emerge for 'core' fields, including the primary sensory areas, which are specified early in development by precise molecular identification steps. In primates, the middle temporal area is probably one of these primordial cortical fields. Areas that form at progressively later stages of development correspond to progressively more recent evolutionary events, their development being less firmly anchored in molecular specification. The certainty with which areal boundaries can be delimited, and likely homologies can be assigned, becomes increasingly blurred in parallel with this evolutionary/developmental sequence. For example, while current concepts for the definition of cortical areas have been vindicated in allowing a clarification of the organization of the New World monkey 'third tier' visual cortex (the third and dorsomedial areas, V3 and DM), our analyses suggest that more flexible mapping criteria may be needed to unravel the organization of higher-order visual association and polysensory areas.

Accounting for uncertainty in marine reserve design

Ecosystems and the species and communities within them are highly complex systems that defy predictions with any degree of certainty. Managing and conserving these systems in the face of uncertainty remains a daunting challenge, particularly with respect to developing networks of marine reserves. Here we review several modelling frameworks that explicitly acknowledge and incorporate uncertainty, and then use these methods to evaluate reserve spacing rules given increasing levels of uncertainty about larval dispersal distances. Our approach finds similar spacing rules as have been proposed elsewhere - roughly 20-200 km - but highlights several advantages provided by uncertainty modelling over more traditional approaches to developing these estimates. In particular, we argue that uncertainty modelling can allow for (1) an evaluation of the risk associated with any decision based on the assumed uncertainty; (2) a method for quantifying the costs and benefits of reducing uncertainty; and (3) a useful tool for communicating to stakeholders the challenges in managing highly uncertain systems. We also argue that incorporating rather than avoiding uncertainty will increase the chances of successfully achieving conservation and management goals.

Age determination in individual wild-caught Drosophila serrata using pteridine concentration

Fluorescence spectrophotometry can reliably detect levels of the pteridine 6-biopterin in the heads of individual Drosophila serrata Malloch 1927. Pteridine content in both laboratory and field captured flies is typically a level of magnitude higher than the minimally detectable level (mean(lab)=0.54 units, mean(field)=0.44 units, minimum detectable level=0.01 units) and can be used to predict individual age in laboratory populations with high certainty (r(2)=57%). Laboratory studies of individuals of known age ( from 1 to 48 days old) indicate that while pteridine level increases linearly with age, they also increase in a linear manner with rearing temperature and ambient light levels, but are independent of sex. As expected, the longevity of laboratory-reared males ( at least 48 days) is higher than the range of predicted ages of wild-caught males based on individual pteridine levels (40 days). However, the predictive equation based on pteridine level alone suggested that a number of wild-caught males were less than 0 days old, and the 95% confidence for these predictions based on the inverse regression broad. The age of the oldest wild-caught male is to fall within the range of 2 to 50 days. The effects of temperature and light intensity determined in laboratory study (effect sizes omega(2)=14.3 and respectively) suggests that the calibration of the prediction equation for field populations would significantly improved when combined with fine scaled studies of habitat temperature and light conditions. ability to determine relative age in individual wild-caught D. serrata presents great opportunities for a variety evolutionary studies on the dynamics of populations.

Indexing and integrating multiple features for WWW images

In this paper, we present a novel indexing technique called Multi-scale Similarity Indexing (MSI) to index image's multi-features into a single one-dimensional structure. Both for text and visual feature spaces, the similarity between a point and a local partition's center in individual space is used as the indexing key, where similarity values in different features are distinguished by different scale. Then a single indexing tree can be built on these keys. Based on the property that relevant images have similar similarity values from the center of the same local partition in any feature space, certain number of irrelevant images can be fast pruned based on the triangle inequity on indexing keys. To remove the dimensionality curse existing in high dimensional structure, we propose a new technique called Local Bit Stream (LBS). LBS transforms image's text and visual feature representations into simple, uniform and effective bit stream (BS) representations based on local partition's center. Such BS representations are small in size and fast for comparison since only bit operation are involved. By comparing common bits existing in two BSs, most of irrelevant images can be immediately filtered. To effectively integrate multi-features, we also investigated the following evidence combination techniques-Certainty Factor, Dempster Shafer Theory, Compound Probability, and Linear Combination. Our extensive experiment showed that single one-dimensional index on multi-features improves multi-indices on multi-features greatly. Our LBS method outperforms sequential scan on high dimensional space by an order of magnitude. And Certainty Factor and Dempster Shafer Theory perform best in combining multiple similarities from corresponding multiple features.

Risk reduction: Recontexualizing health as a physical education curriculum

While there is sufficient evidence to suggest that physical activity is inversely related to lifestyle diseases, researchers are far from being certain that this evidence extends to children. Nevertheless, the school physical education curriculum has been targeted as an institutional agency that could have a significant impact on health during childhood and later during adulthood if individuals could be habituated to assume a physically active lifestyle. The purpose of this article is to examine the recontextualization of biomedical knowledge into an ideology of healthism in which health is conceived as a controllable certainty and used as a pedagogical construction to transform school physical education. Using a Foucauldian perspective, we explore how the atomized biomedical model of chemical and physical relationships is constructed, reproduced, and perpetuated to service and empower the discourse and the practices of researchers and scholars. In this process the sociological or cultural aspects of public health are marginalized or ignored. As a result of this examination, alternative approaches are proposed that engage the limitations of the biomedical model and openly consider the insights that are available from the social sciences regarding what participation in physical activity means to individuals.

Refining individualized consideration: Distinguishing developmental leadership and supportive leadership

This study explores the theoretical and empirical distinction between developmental leadership and supportive leadership, which are currently encompassed in a single sub dimension of transformational leadership, individualized consideration. Items were selected to assess these constructs, and hypotheses regarding the differential effects of developmental and supportive leadership were proposed. Confirmatory factor analyses provided support for the proposed distinction between developmental and supportive leadership, although these leadership factors were very strongly associated. Structural equation modelling and multi-level modelling results indicated that both developmental leadership and supportive leadership displayed unique relationships with theoretically selected outcome measures. Developmental leadership displayed significantly stronger relationships with job satisfaction, career certainty, affective commitment to the organization and role breadth self-efficacy than did supportive leadership. Results provide initial evidence in support of the discriminant validity of these two types of leadership. Discussion focuses on the need to further examine the construct of developmental leadership.

Supermodularity and risk aversion

In this paper, we consider the relationship between supermodularity and risk aversion. We show that supermodularity of the certainty equivalent implies that the certainty equivalent of any random variable is less than its mean. We also derive conditions under which supermodularity of the certainty equivalent is equivalent to aversion to mean-preserving spreads in the sense of Rothschild and Stiglitz. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Function and Consequences of Alternative Fresh Produce Supply Chain Models

Around the world, consumers and retailers of fresh produce are becoming more and more discerning about factors such as food safety and traceability, health, convenience and the sustainability of production systems, and in doing so they are changing the way in which fresh produce supply chains are configured and managed. When consumers demand fresh, safe, convenient, value-for-money produce, retailers in an increasingly competitive environment are attracted to those business models most capable of meeting these demands profitably. Traditional models are proving less and less able to deliver competitive advantage in such an environment. As a result, opportunistic, adversarial, price-based approaches to doing business between chain members are being replaced by approaches that are more strategic, collaborative and value-based. The shaping force behind this change is the need for producers, wholesalers, category managers, retailers and consumers to have more certainty about the performance of the supply chains upon which they rely. Certainty is generated through the supply chain's ability to create, deliver and share value. How to build supply chains that create, deliver and share value is arguably the single biggest challenge to the competitiveness of fresh produce firms, and therefore to the industries to which they belong.

Optimisation of Nitrogen Supply from Sugarcane Residues in the Wet Tropics

Retention of sugarcane leaves and tops on the soil surface after harvesting has almost completely replaced burning of crop residues in the Australian sugar industry. Long term retention of residue is believed to improve soil fertility to the extent that nitrogen (N) fertilizer applications might be reduced by up to 40 kg N/ha/y. However, the fate of N in the extreme environment of the wet tropics is not known with certainty. Indices of potential N mineralisation and nitrification were developed and indicate that potential N fertility is greater in the wet tropics compared to more southern cane growing areas, and is enhanced under residue retention. Field results from the wet tropics support this prediction, but indicate high soil ammonium-N concentrations relative to nitrate-N.