59 resultados para Censoring. Dairy cattle. Kaplan-Meier estimator. Proportional hazards model

em University of Queensland eSpace - Australia


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Four spirochete strains were isolated from papillomatous digital dermatitis (PDD) lesions in Iowa dairy cattle and compared with two previously described spirochete strains isolated from dairy cattle in California. These six strains shared an identical 16S ribosomal DNA sequence that was 98% similar to Treponema phagedenis and 99% similar to the uncultivated PDD spirochete sequence DDLK-4. The whole-cell protein profiles resolved by sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis of these six strains were similar. However, these strains showed differences in the antigenic diversity of lipopolysaccharide (LPS). Genetic diversity was also detected by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis of genomic DNA digests, revealing differences among five of the six strains. Serum immunoglobulin G antibodies from dairy cattle with active PDD lesions reacted with the LPS of all but one PDD spirochete strain. Likewise, peripheral blood mononuclear cells from cattle with active PDD lesions produced blastogenic responses to one of the two California isolates. Both antibody and lymphocyte blastogenic responses were reduced in convalescent dairy cattle, suggesting the immune response to these spirochetes has short duration. These results demonstrate genetic and antigenic diversity among T. phagedenis-like treponemes and provide further evidence for the involvement of these spirochetes in the pathogenesis of PDD.

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Objective To determine whether Treponema-associated papillomatous digital dermatitis (PDD) occurs in Australian dairy cattle. Design Mail-out questionnaire and histological and bacteriological examination of biopsy tissue from suspect PDD lesions. Procedure The questionnaire was mailed to 375 veterinarians to evaluate their knowledge of PDD, determine if they had observed the disease in Australian dairy cattle, and to request biopsy material from suspicious cases. Biopsies were examined for histological and bacteriological evidence of PDD, including for the presence of spirochaetes. Results Eighty-eight replies to the questionnaire were received (23.5%). Of 52 respondents who were aware of PDD as a possible cause of lameness, 26 reported observing the condition in Australian cattle. Of 32 respondents who were unaware of the condition, 6 reported observing lesions that might have been PDD. The majority of reports of PDD-like lesions came from the southern Australian states, the condition occurring during periods of high rainfall and proving responsive to topical or parenteral application of antimicrobials. Biopsies from five erosive lesions showed histological similarity to PDD whereas biopsies from five proliferative lesions were consistent with chronic inflammation, fibroma or cutaneous papilloma. The presence of spirochaetes was not demonstrated in any of the lesions by histological or bacteriological methods. Conclusion Anecdotal reports and analysis of biopsy material confirm that a condition similar to PDD does occur sporadically in dairy cattle in southern Australia. However, this condition has so far not been shown to be associated with the presence of spirochaetes in the lesions.

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Objective To investigate the extent of heat load problems, caused by the combination of excessive temperature and humidity, in Holstein-Friesian cows in Australia. Also, to outline how milk production losses and consequent costs from this can be estimated and minimised. Procedures Long-term meteorological data for Australia were analysed to determine the distribution of hot conditions over space and time. Fifteen dairy production regions were identified for higher-resolution data analysis. Both the raw meteorological data and their integration into a temperature-humidity thermal index were compiled onto a computer program. This mapping software displays the distribution of climatic patterns, both Australia-wide and within the selected dairying regions. Graphical displays of the variation in historical records for 200 locations in the 15 dairying regions are also available. As a separate study, production data from research stations, on-farm trials and milk factory records were statistically analysed and correlated with the climatic indices, to estimate production losses due to hot conditions. Results Both milk yields and milk constituents declined with increases in the temperature-humidity index. The onset and rate of this decline are dependent on a number of factors, including location, level of production, adaptation, and management regime. These results have been integrated into a farm-level economic analysis for managers of dairy properties. Conclusion By considering the historical patterns of hot conditions over time and space, along with expected production losses, managers of dairy farms can now conduct an economic evaluation of investment strategies to alleviate heat loads. These strategies include the provision of sprinklers, shade structures, or combinations of these.

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Milk protein production can be influenced by several factors, including environment, disease status, parity, stage of lactation, breed, genetic merit and the nutritional status of the animal (DePeters and Cant 1992). A combination of, or an interaction between, these factors can significantly affect milk protein production. Our study aims to identify the main factors affecting milk protein concentration in dairy cattle in the south-east Queensland region.

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We consider a mixture model approach to the regression analysis of competing-risks data. Attention is focused on inference concerning the effects of factors on both the probability of occurrence and the hazard rate conditional on each of the failure types. These two quantities are specified in the mixture model using the logistic model and the proportional hazards model, respectively. We propose a semi-parametric mixture method to estimate the logistic and regression coefficients jointly, whereby the component-baseline hazard functions are completely unspecified. Estimation is based on maximum likelihood on the basis of the full likelihood, implemented via an expectation-conditional maximization (ECM) algorithm. Simulation studies are performed to compare the performance of the proposed semi-parametric method with a fully parametric mixture approach. The results show that when the component-baseline hazard is monotonic increasing, the semi-parametric and fully parametric mixture approaches are comparable for mildly and moderately censored samples. When the component-baseline hazard is not monotonic increasing, the semi-parametric method consistently provides less biased estimates than a fully parametric approach and is comparable in efficiency in the estimation of the parameters for all levels of censoring. The methods are illustrated using a real data set of prostate cancer patients treated with different dosages of the drug diethylstilbestrol. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

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OBJECTIVE- To assess the relationship between clinical course after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and diabetes treatment. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS- Retrospective analysis of data from all patients aged 25-64 years admitted to hospitals in Perth, Australia, between 1985 and 1993 with AMI diagnosed according to the International Classification of Diseases (9th revision) criteria was conducted. Short- (28-day) and long-term survival and complications in diabetic and nondiabetic patients were compared. For diabetic patients, 28-day survival, dysrhythmias, heart block, and pulmonary edema were treated as outcomes, and factors related to each were assessed using multiple logistic regression. Diabetes treatment was added to the model to assess its significance. Long-term survival was compared by means of a Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS- Of 5,715 patients, 745 (12.9%) were diabetic. Mortality at 28 days was 12.0 and 28.1% for nondiabetic and diabetic patients, respectively (P < 0.001); there were no significant drug effects in the diabetic group. Ventricular fibrillation in diabetic patients taking glibenclamide (11.8%) was similar to that of nondiabetic patients (11.0%) but was lower than that for those patients taking either gliclazide (18.0%; 0.1 > P > 0.05) or insulin (22.8%; P < 0.05). There were no other treatment-related differences in acute complications. Long-term survival in diabetic patients was reduced in those taking digitalis and/or diuretics but type of diabetes treatment at discharge had no significant association with outcome. CONCLUSlONS- These results do not suggest that ischemic heart disease should influence the choice of diabetes treatment regimen in general or of sulfonylurea drug in particular.

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Postmenopausal Caucasian women aged less than 80 years (n = 99) with one or more atraumatic vertebral fracture and no hip fractures, were treated by cyclical administration of enteric coated sodium fluoride (NaF) or no NaF for 27 months, with precautions to prevent excessive stimulation of bone turnover. In the first study 65 women, unexposed to estrogen (-E study), age 70.8 +/- 0.8 years (mean SEM) were all treated with calcium (Ca) 1.0-1.2 g daily and ergocalciferol (D) 0.25 mg per 25 kg once weekly and were randomly assigned to cyclical NaF (6 months on. 3 months off, initial dose 60 mg/day; group F CaD, n = 34) or no NaF (group CaD, n = 3 1). In the second study 34 patients. age 65.5 +/- 1.2 years, on hormone replacement therapy (E) at baseline, had this standardized, and were all treated with Ca and D and similarly randomized (FE CaD, n = 17, E CaD, n = 17) (+E study). The patients were stratified according to E status and subsequently assigned randomly to NaF. Seventy-five patients completed the trial. Both groups treated with NaF showed an increase in lumbar spinal density (by DXA) above baseline by 27 months: FE CaD + 16.2% and F CaD +9.3% (both p = 0.0001). In neither group CaD nor E CaD did lumbar spinal density increase. Peripheral bone loss occurred at most sites in the F CaD group at 27 months: tibia/fibula shaft -7.3% (p = 0.005); femoral shaft -7.1% (p = 0.004); distal forearm -4.0% (p = 0.004); total hip -4.1% (p = 0. 003); and femoral neck -3.5% (p = 0.006). No significant loss occurred in group FE CaD. Differences between the two NaF groups were greatest at the total hip at 27 months but were not significant [p < 0.05; in view of the multiple bone mineral density (BMD) sites, an alpha of 0.01 was employed to denote significance in BMD changes throughout this paper]. Using Cox's proportional hazards model, in the -E study there were significantly more patients with first fresh vertebral fractures in those treated with NaF than in those not so treated (RR = 24.2, p = 0.008, 95% CI 2.3-255). Patients developing first fresh fractures in the first 9 months were markedly different between groups: -23% of F CaD, 0 of CaD, 29% of FE CaD and 0 of E CaD. The incidence of incomplete (stress) fractures was similar in the two NaF-treated groups. Complete nonvertebral fractures did not occur in the two +E groups, there were no differences between groups F CaD and CaD. Baseline BMD (spine and femoral neck) was related to incident vertebral fractures in the control groups (no NaF), but not in the two NaF groups. Our results and a literature review indicate that fluoride salts. if used, should be at low dosage, with pretreatment and co-treatment with a bone resorption inhibitor.

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1. Parasitoids are predicted to spend longer in patches with more hosts, but previous work on Cotesia rubecula (Marshall) has not upheld this prediction, Tests of theoretical predictions may be affected by the definition of patch leaving behaviour, which is often ambiguous. 2. In this study whole plants were considered as patches and assumed that wasps move within patches by means of walking or flying. Within-patch and between-patch flights were distinguished based on flight distance. The quality of this classification was tested statistically by examination of log-survivor curves of flight times. 3. Wasps remained longer in patches with higher host densities, which is consistent with predictions of the marginal value theorem (Charnov 1976). tinder the assumption that each flight indicates a patch departure, there is no relationship between host density and leaving tendency. 4. Oviposition influences the patch leaving behaviour of wasps in a count down fashion (Driessen et al. 1995), as predicted by an optimal foraging model (Tenhumberg, Keller & Possingham 2001). 5. Wasps spend significantly longer in the first patch encountered following release, resulting in an increased rate of superparasitism.

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The clinical usefulness of hemodialysis catheters is limited by increased infectious morbidity and mortality. Topical antiseptic agents, such as mupirocin, are effective at reducing this risk but have been reported to select for antibiotic-resistant strains. The aim of the present study was to determine the efficacy and the safety of exit-site application of a standardized antibacterial honey versus mupirocin in preventing catheter-associated infections. A randomized, controlled trial was performed comparing the effect of thrice-weekly exit-site application of Medihoney versus mupirocin on infection rates in patients who were receiving hemodialysis via tunneled, cuffed central venous catheters. A total of 101 patients were enrolled. The incidences of catheter-associated bacteremias in honey-treated (n = 51) and mupirocin-treated (n = 50) patients were comparable (0.97 versus 0.85 episodes per 1000 catheter-days, respectively; NS). On Cox proportional hazards model analysis, the use of honey was not significantly associated with bacteremia-free survival (unadjusted hazard ratio, 0.94; 95% confidence interval, 0.27 to 3.24; P = 0.92). No exit-site infections occurred. During the study period, 2% of staphylococcal isolates within the hospital were mupirocin resistant. Thrice-weekly application of standardized antibacterial honey to hemodialysis catheter exit sites was safe, cheap, and effective and resulted in a comparable rate of catheter-associated infection to that obtained with mupirocin (although the study was not adequately powered to assess therapeutic equivalence). The effectiveness of honey against antibiotic-resistant microorganisms and its low likelihood of selecting for further resistant strains suggest that this agent may represent a satisfactory alternative means of chemoprophylaxis in patients with central venous catheters.

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Objectives - Nitric oxide (NO) is critically important in the regulation of vascular tone and the inhibition of platelet aggregation. We have shown previously that patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS) or stable angina pectoris have impaired platelet responses to NO donors when compared with normal subjects. We tested the hypotheses that platelet hyporesponsiveness to NO is a predictor of (1) cardiovascular readmission and/or death and (2) all-cause mortality in patients with ACS (unstable angina pectoris or non-Q-wave myocardial infarction). Methods and Results - Patients (n = 51) with ACS had evaluation of platelet aggregation within 24 hours of coronary care unit admission using impedance aggregometry. Patients were categorized as having normal (>= 32% inhibition of ADP-induced aggregation with the NO donor sodium nitroprusside; 10 mu mol/L; n = 18) or impaired (>= 32% inhibition of ADP-induced aggregation; n = 33) NO responses. We then compared the incidence of cardiovascular readmission and death during a median of 7 years of follow-up in these 2 groups. Using a Cox proportional hazards model adjusting for age, sex, index event, postdischarge medical treatment, revascularization status, left ventricular systolic dysfunction, concurrent disease states, and cardiac risk factors, impaired NO responsiveness was associated with an increased risk of the combination of cardiovascular readmission and/or death (relative risk, 2.7; 95% CI, 1.03 to 7.10; P = 0.041) and all-cause mortality (relative risk, 6.3; 95% CI, 1.09 to 36.7; P = 0.033). Conclusions - Impaired platelet NO responsiveness is a novel, independent predictor of increased mortality and cardiovascular morbidity in patients with high-risk ACS.

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Intraventricular dyssynchrony has prognostic implications in patients who have severe functional limitation and decreased ejection fraction. Patients with less advanced cardiac disease often exhibit intraventricular dyssynchrony, but there is little available information about its prognostic relevance in such patients. We investigated the prognostic effect of intraventricular dyssynchrony on outcome in 318 patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease who were classified according to the presence or absence of left ventricular dysfunction and heart failure symptoms. Mortality was considered the primary end point over a median follow-up of 56 months, and a Cox proportional hazards model was used for survival analysis. Despite a low prevalence (8%) of left bundle branch block, there was a high prevalence of intraventricular dyssynchrony even in patients without symptomatic heart failure. The magnitude of intraventricular dyssynchrony correlated poorly with QRS duration (r = 0.25),end-systolic volume index (r = 0.27), and number of scar segments (r = 0.25). There,were 58 deaths during follow-up. Ventricular volume, ischemic burden, and magnitude of intraventricular dyssynchrony predicted outcome, but magnitude of intraventricular dyssynchrony was an independent predictor of survival only in patients with asymptomatic left ventricular dysfunction. In conclusion, patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease have a high prevalence of intraventricular dyssynchrony. Although ventricular volume, ischemic burden, and intraventricular dyssynchrony are potentially important prognostic markers, the relative importance of intraventricular dyssynchrony changes with the clinical setting and, may be greatest-in patients with preclinical disease. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Image : To assess the potential for sucralfate administered rectally to reduce the risk of late rectal morbidity in patients undergoing nonconformal radiotherapy (RT) for carcinoma of the prostate and to study the variables potentially contributing to late rectal morbidity and particularly to explore the relationship between acute and late toxicity. Image : Eighty-six patients with localized prostate carcinoma were randomized in a double-blind, placebo-controlled study to a daily enema of 3 g of sucralfate in a 15-mL suspension or the same suspension without sucralfate. The enema began the first day of RT and was continued for 2 weeks after treatment completion. The primary end point of the study was acute Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG)/European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) toxicity; however, the patients were followed for an additional 5 years on a 6-month basis. The evaluation included late RTOG/EORTC toxicity and a patient self-assessment questionnaire. Image : With a median follow-up of 5 years, the Kaplan-Meier probability of late Grade 2 RTOG/EORTC toxicity was 12% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2–22%) for placebo and 5% (95% CI 0–12%) for sucralfate (p = 0.26). The probability of late rectal bleeding was 59% (95% CI 45–73%) for placebo and 54% (95% CI 40–68%) for sucralfate. No statistically significant difference was found between the treatment arms for the peak incidence of any of the other patient self-assessment variables. Cox proportional hazards modeling indicated acute RTOG/EORTC toxicity of Grade 2 or greater was associated with a hazard ratio of 2.74 (95% CI 1.31–5.73) for the development of late toxicity of Grade 1 or greater. Substituting the patient self-assessment variables for acute RTOG/EORTC toxicity revealed that rectal pain of a moderate or severe grade during RT was the best predictor of the subsequent development of late toxicity, with a hazard ratio of 3.44 (95% CI 1.68–7). Image : The results of this study do not support the use of sucralfate administered rectally as a method for reducing the late toxicity of nonconformal RT for prostate cancer. There appears to be an association between the development of acute and subsequent late toxicity, although the nature of this association remains to be determined