Simpson's paradox: A logically benign, empirically treacherous hydra

This article examines Simpson's paradox as applied to the theory of probabilites and percentages. The author discusses possible flaws in the paradox and compares it to the Sure Thing Principle, statistical inference, causal inference and probabilistic analyses of causation.

Sensitive and specific detection of Clavibacter xyli subsp. xyli, causal agent of ratoon stunting disease of sugarcane, with a polymerase chain reaction-based assay

A sensitive, specific polymerase chain reaction-based assay was developed for the detection of the causal agent of ratoon stunting disease of sugarcane, Clavibacter xyli subsp. xyli. This assay uses oligonucleotide primers derived from the internal transcribed spacer region between the 16S and 23S rRNA genes of the bacterial rRNA operon. The assay is specific for C. xyli subsp. xyli and does not produce an amplification product from the template of the closely related bacterium C. xyli subsp. cynodontis, nor from other bacterial species. The assay was successfully applied to the detection of C. xyli subsp. xyli in fibrovascular fluid extracted from sugarcane and was sensitive to approximately 22 cells per PCR assay. A multiplex PCR test was also developed which identified and differentiated C. xyli subsp. xyli and C. xyli subsp. cynodontis in a single PCR assay.

Inference of phylogeny and taxonomy within the Didymozoidae (Digenea) from the second internal transcribed spacer (ITS2) of ribosomal DNA

DNA sequences of the second internal transcribed spacer (ITS2) of ribosomal DNA (rDNA) were determined for 11 species from four genera of Didymozoinae (Indodidymozoon, Helicodidymozoon, Rhopalotrema and Neometadidymozoon) and a species of the Lecithasteridae, Lecithaster stellatus. Sequences were used to test the validity of species recognised on morphological criteria and to infer phylogenetic relationships. Sequences of the 11 didymozoids differed by 0.5% to 19%. Our phylogenetic analyses: (i) indicate that species in the genera Helicodidymozoon and Rhopalotrema are a monophyletic group; (ii) support separation of the genus Helicodidymozoon from the genera Indodidymozoon and Neometadidymozoon; and (iii) support recognition of Rhopalotrema as a genus distinct from Neometadidymozoon. We found the gonochoristic species, I. pearsoni and I. suttiei, to be genetically similar to the hermaphroditic species in the genus Indodidymozoon and found no evidence to indicate that they belong in a separate genus.

Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder and substance use disorders: is there a causal link?

Attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), characterized by restless, inattentive and hyperactive behaviours, is a relatively common childhood disorder that affects approximately 5% of the general population. There has been controversy about whether ADHD increases risks of developing substance use disorders. The available evidence suggests that, in the absence of conduct disorder, ADHD is not associated with an increased risk of substance use problems in males. There is only limited evidence on the role of ADHD in the aetiology of substance use disorders among females. While ADHD has traditionally been considered as a childhood disorder, it may also occur in adults; research needs to examine the extent to which ADHD in adulthood increases the risk of substance use disorders.

Causal loops and the independence of causal facts

According to Hugh Mellor in Real Time II (1998, Ch. 12), assuming the logical independence of causal facts and the 'law of large numbers', causal loops are impossible because if they were possible they would produce inconsistent sets of frequencies. I clarify the argument, and argue that it would be preferable to abandon the relevant independence assumption in the case of causal loops.

The advantages of theft over toil: The design inference and arguing from ignorance

Intelligent design theorist William Dembski has proposed an explanatory filter for distinguishing between events due to chance, lawful regularity or design. We show that if Dembski's filter were adopted as a scientific heuristic, some classical developments in science would not be rational, and that Dembski's assertion that the filter reliably identifies rarefied design requires ignoring the state of background knowledge. If background information changes even slightly, the filter's conclusion will vary wildly. Dembski fails to overcome Hume's objections to arguments from design.

Compensation for obesity-induced insulin resistance in dogs: Causal web analysis of the associations of leptin and GLP-1.

Obesity affects aspects of glucose homeostasis such as insulin secretion and insulin sensitivity. Hormones secreted by adipocytes like leptin mediate the metabolic consequences of obesity. Incretin hormones like glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) increase insulin secretion in response to changes in blood glucose concentration and have been proposed to regulate insulin secretion in fasting, overweight dogs. The aim of this study was to examine hormonal mechanisms by which adiposity alters glucose homeostasis, plasma insulin concentration, and insulin sensitivity in spontaneously overweight dogs.

Causal and localizable quantum operations

We examine constraints on quantum operations imposed by relativistic causality. A bipartite superoperator is said to be localizable if it can be implemented by two parties (Alice and Bob) who share entanglement but do not communicate, it is causal if the superoperator does not convey information from Alice to Bob or from Bob to Alice. We characterize the general structure of causal complete-measurement superoperators, and exhibit examples that are causal but not localizable. We construct another class of causal bipartite superoperators that are not localizable by invoking bounds on the strength of correlations among the parts of a quantum system. A bipartite superoperator is said to be semilocalizable if it can be implemented with one-way quantum communication from Alice to Bob, and it is semicausal if it conveys no information from Bob to Alice. We show that all semicausal complete-measurement superoperators are semi localizable, and we establish a general criterion for semicausality. In the multipartite case, we observe that a measurement superoperator that projects onto the eigenspaces of a stabilizer code is localizable.

Identification of causal relationships among traits related to drought resistance in Stylosanthes scabra using QTL analysis

Previous studies have shown that a negative relationship exists between transpiration efficiency (TE) and carbon isotope discrimination (Delta) and between TE and specific leaf area (SLA) in Stylosanthes scabra, A glasshouse experiment was conducted to confirm these relationships in an F-2 population and to study the causal nature of these relationships through quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis, One hundred and twenty F-2 genotypes from a cross between two genotypes within S. scabra were used. Three replications for each genotype were maintained through vegetative propagation, Water stress was imposed by maintaining plants at 40% of field capacity for about 45 d. To facilitate QTL analysis, a genetic linkage map consisting of 151 RAPD markers was developed, Results from this study show that Delta was significantly and negatively correlated with TE and biomass production. Similarly, SLA showed significant negative correlation with TE and biomass production, Most of the QTL for TE and Delta were present on linkage groups 5 and 11. Similarly, QTL for SLA, transpiration and biomass productivity traits were clustered on linkage groups 13 and 24, One unlinked marker was also associated with these traits, There were several markers coincident between different traits, At all the coincident QTL, the direction of QTL effects was consistent with phenotypic data, At the coincident markers between TE and Delta, high alleles of TE were associated with low alleles of Delta. Similarly, low alleles of SLA were associated with high alleles of biomass productivity traits and transpiration. At the coincident markers between trans-4-hydroxy-N-methyl proline (MHP) and relative water content (RWC), low alleles of MHP were associated with high alleles of RWC, This study suggests the causal nature of the relationship between TE and Delta. Phenotypic data and QTL, data show that SLA was more closely associated with biomass production than with TE, This study also shows that a cause-effect relationship may exist between SLA and biomass production.

Transformation and transposon mutagenesis of Leifsonia xyli subsp. Xyli, causal organism of Ratoon Stunting Discease of sugarcane

Conditions have been developed for genetic transformation and insertional mutagenesis in Leifsonia xyli subsp. xyli (Lxx), the causal organism of ratoon stunting disease (RSD), one of the most damaging and intractable diseases of sugarcane internationally. Transformation frequencies ranged from 1 to 10 colony forming units (CFU)/mug of plasmid DNA using Clavibacter/Escherichia coli shuttle vectors pCG188, pDM302, and pDM306 and ranged from 50 to 500 CFU/mug using cosmid cloning vectors pLAFR3 and pLAFR5-km. The transformation/transposition frequency was 0 to 70 CFU/mug of DNA, using suicide vectors pUCD623 and pSLTP2021 containing transposable elements Tn4431 and Tn5, respectively. It was necessary to grow Lxx in media containing 0.1% glycine for electroporation and to amplify large plasmids in a dam(-)/dcm(-) E. coli strain and purify the DNA by anion exchange. To keep selection pressure at an optimum, the transformants were grown on nitrocellulose filters (0.2-mum pore size) on media containing the appropriate antibiotics. Transposon Tn4431 containing a promoterless lux operon from Vibrio fischeri and a tetracycline-resistance gene was introduced on the suicide vector pUCD623. All but 1% of the putative transposon mutants produce light, indicating transposition into functional Lxx genes. Southern blot analysis of these transformants indicates predominantly single transposon insertions at unique sites. The cosmid cloning vector pLAFR5-km was stably maintained in Lxx. The development of a transformation and transposon mutagenesis system opens the way for molecular analysis of pathogenicity determinants in Lxx.

Toward a better understanding of the influences on physical activity: The role of determinants, correlates, causal variables, mediators, moderators, and confounders

Background: For research on physical activity interventions to progress systematically, the mechanisms of action must be studied. In doing so, the research methods and their associated concepts and terminology become more complex. It is particularly important to clearly distinguish among determinants, correlates, mediators, moderators, and confounder variables used in physical activity research. This article examines the factors that are correlated with and that may have a causal relationship to physical activity. Methods and Results: We propose that the term correlate be used, instead of determinant, to describe statistical associations or correlations between measured variables and physical activity. Studies of the correlates of physical activity are reviewed. The findings of these studies can help to critique existing theories of health behavior change and can provide hypotheses to be tested in intervention studies from which it is possible to draw causal inferences. Mediator, moderator, and confounder variables can act to influence measured changes in physical activity. Intervening causal variables that are necessary to complete a cause-effect pathway between an intervention and physical activity are termed mediators. The relationship between an intervention and physical activity behaviors may vary for different groups; the strata by which they vary are levels of moderators of the relationship. Other factors may distort or affect the observed relationships between program exposure and physical activity, and are known as confounders. Conclusions: Consistent use of terms and additional research on mediators and moderators of intervention effects will improve our ability to understand and influence physical activity.

The value of idiosyncratic markers and changes to conserved tRNA sequences from the mitochondrial genome of hard ticks (Acari: Ixodida: Ixodidae) for phylogenetic inference

Idiosyncratic markers are features of genes and genomes that are so unusual that it is unlikely that they evolved more than once in a lineage of organisms. Here we explore further the potential of idiosyncratic markers and changes to typically conserved tRNA sequences for phylogenetic inference. Hard ticks were chosen as the model group because their phylogeny has been studied extensively. Fifty-eight candidate markers from hard ticks ( family Ixodidae) and 22 markers from the subfamily Rhipicephalinae sensu lato were mapped onto phylogenies of these groups. Two of the most interesting markers, features of the secondary structure of two different tRNAs, gave strong support to the hypothesis that species of the Prostriata ( Ixodes spp.) are monophyletic. Previous analyses of genes and morphology did not strongly support this relationship, instead suggesting that the Prostriata is paraphyletic with respect to the Metastriata ( the rest of the hard ticks). Parallel or convergent evolution was not found in the arrangements of mitochondrial genes in ticks nor were there any reversals to the ancestral arthropod character state. Many of the markers identified were phylogenetically informative, whereas others should be informative with study of additional taxa. Idiosyncratic markers and changes to typically conserved nucleotides in tRNAs that are phylogenetically informative were common in this data set, and thus these types of markers might be found in other organisms.