Applying linear time-varying constraints to econometric models: With an application to demand systems

When linear equality constraints are invariant through time they can be incorporated into estimation by restricted least squares. If, however, the constraints are time-varying, this standard methodology cannot be applied. In this paper we show how to incorporate linear time-varying constraints into the estimation of econometric models. The method involves the augmentation of the observation equation of a state-space model prior to estimation by the Kalman filter. Numerical optimisation routines are used for the estimation. A simple example drawn from demand analysis is used to illustrate the method and its application.

Economic constraints on public policy

Economics is commonly described as "the science of allocating scarce resources." By contrast, a popular description of politics is "the art of the possible." Both of these descriptions refer to the same central feature of human existence: our wants generally exceed our capacity to satisfy them. However, economic and political approaches to the problem of scarcity are quite different. [Extract from Introduction]

Capacity utilisation and profitability: A decomposition of short-run profit efficiency

The principal aim of this paper is to measure the amount by which the profit of a multi-input, multi-output firm deviates from maximum short-run profit, and then to decompose this profit gap into components that are of practical use to managers. In particular, our interest is in the measurement of the contribution of unused capacity, along with measures of technical inefficiency, and allocative inefficiency, in this profit gap. We survey existing definitions of capacity and, after discussing their shortcomings, we propose a new ray economic capacity measure that involves short-run profit maximisation, with the output mix held constant. We go on to describe how the gap between observed profit and maximum profit can be calculated and decomposed using linear programming methods. The paper concludes with an empirical illustration, involving data on 28 international airline companies. The empirical results indicate that these airline companies achieve profit levels which are on average US$815m below potential levels, and that 70% of the gap may be attributed to unused capacity. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Impulse-response function of splanchnic circulation with model-independent constraints: theory and experimental validation

Modeling physiological processes using tracer kinetic methods requires knowledge of the time course of the tracer concentration in blood supplying the organ. For liver studies, however, inaccessibility of the portal vein makes direct measurement of the hepatic dual-input function impossible in humans. We want to develop a method to predict the portal venous time-activity curve from measurements of an arterial time-activity curve. An impulse-response function based on a continuous distribution of washout constants is developed and validated for the gut. Experiments with simultaneous blood sampling in aorta and portal vein were made in 13 anesthetized pigs following inhalation of intravascular [O-15] CO or injections of diffusible 3-O[ C-11] methylglucose (MG). The parameters of the impulse-response function have a physiological interpretation in terms of the distribution of washout constants and are mathematically equivalent to the mean transit time ( T) and standard deviation of transit times. The results include estimates of mean transit times from the aorta to the portal vein in pigs: (T) over bar = 0.35 +/- 0.05 min for CO and 1.7 +/- 0.1 min for MG. The prediction of the portal venous time-activity curve benefits from constraining the regression fits by parameters estimated independently. This is strong evidence for the physiological relevance of the impulse-response function, which includes asymptotically, and thereby justifies kinetically, a useful and simple power law. Similarity between our parameter estimates in pigs and parameter estimates in normal humans suggests that the proposed model can be adapted for use in humans.

Designing supramolecular structures from models of cyclic peptide scaffolds with heterocyclic constraints

Cyclic peptides containing oxazole and thiazole heterocycles have been examined for their capacity to be used as scaffolds in larger, more complex, protein-like structures. Both the macrocyclic scaffolds and the supramolecular structures derived therefrom have been visualised by molecular modelling techniques. These molecules are too symmetrical to examine structurally by NMR spectroscopy. The cyclic hexapeptide ([Aaa-Thz](3), [Aaa-Oxz](3)) and cyclic octapeptide ([Aaa-Thz](4), [Aaa-Oxz](4)) analogues are composed of dipeptide surrogates (Aaa: amino acid, Thz: thiazole, Oxz: oxazole) derived from intramolecular condensation of cysteine or serine/threonine side chains in dipeptides like Aaa-Cys, Aaa-Ser and Aaa-Thr. The five-membered heterocyclic rings, like thiazole, oxazole and reduced analogues like thiazoline, thiazolidine and oxazoline have profound influences on the structures and bioactivities of cyclic peptides derived therefrom. This work suggests that such constrained cyclic peptides can be used as scaffolds to create a range of novel protein-like supramolecular structures (e.g. cylinders, troughs, cones, multi-loop structures, helix bundles) that are comparable in size, shape and composition to bioactive surfaces of proteins. They may therefore represent interesting starting points for the design of novel artificial proteins and artificial enzymes. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Constraints on muscular performance: trade-offs between power output and fatigue resistance

An important functional and evolutionary constraint on the physical performance of vertebrates is believed to be the trade-off between speed and endurance capacity. However, despite the pervasiveness of physiological arguments, most studies have found no evidence of the trade-off when tested at the whole-animal level. We investigated the existence of this trade-off at the whole-muscle level, the presumed site of this physiological conflict, by examining inter-individual variation in both maximum power output and fatigue resistance for mouse extensor digitorum longus (EDL) muscle using the work-loop technique. We found negative correlations between several measures of in vitro maximum power output and force production with fatigue resistance for individual mouse EDL muscles, indicating functional trade-offs between these performance parameters. We suggest that this trade-off detected at the whole-muscle level has imposed an important constraint on the evolution of vertebrate physical performance.

Matching poultry production with available feed resources: issues and constraints

Corn and soyabeans may not be available in many countries particularly those which do not have sufficient foreign currency or the capacity to grow them. This paper outlines strategies that may be important under these circumstances. Alternative feedstuffs and various feeding systems may be used to support poultry production. Alternative ingredients such as rice bran, pearl millet, cottonseed meal and grain legumes are discussed. Evidence is presented showing that amino acid requirements of layers and broilers may be too generous particularly in countries where climate, management and disease can impose production constraints. The ability of finishing broilers to perform well on very low-energy diets allows the inclusion of alternative feeds and by-products into formulations. Very low protein diets based on cereals and free amino acids can be used for layers without loss of performance. Self-selection of feedstuffs may be an important strategy in reducing feed costs of broilers and layers. The concept of matching production with available feed resources may compromise broiler growth and egg production, but in many countries this may be the most economical choice. Countries in the humid tropics usually have reduced poultry performance. The effects of high temperature and humidity are difficult to overcome. The vexed questions of the escalation in the price of fossil fuel and the outbreak of avian influenza, both seemingly without a solution, are clouds hanging over an otherwise buoyant industry.

Neuromuscular-skeletal constraints on the acquisition of skill in a discrete torque production task

The organisation of the human neuromuscular-skeletal system allows an extremely wide variety of actions to be performed, often with great dexterity. Adaptations associated with skill acquisition occur at all levels of the neuromuscular-skeletal system although all neural adaptations are inevitably constrained by the organisation of the actuating apparatus (muscles and bones). We quantified the extent to which skill acquisition in an isometric task set is influenced by the mechanical properties of the muscles used to produce the required actions. Initial performance was greatly dependent upon the specific combination of torques required in each variant of the experimental task. Five consecutive days of practice improved the performance to a similar degree across eight actions despite differences in the torques required about the elbow and forearm. The proportional improvement in performance was also similar when the actions were performed at either 20 or 40% of participants' maximum voluntary torque capacity. The skill acquired during practice was successfully extrapolated to variants of the task requiring more torque than that required during practice. We conclude that while the extent to which skill can be acquired in isometric actions is independent of the specific combination of joint torques required for target acquisition, the nature of the kinetic adaptations leading to the performance improvement in isometric actions is influenced by the neural and mechanical properties of the actuating muscles.

Constraints on the spatiotemporal accuracy of interceptive action: effects of target size on hitting a moving object

Results of two experiments are reported that examined how people respond to rectangular targets of different sizes in simple hitting tasks. If a target moves in a straight line and a person is constrained to move along a linear track oriented perpendicular to the targetrsquos motion, then the length of the target along its direction of motion constrains the temporal accuracy and precision required to make the interception. The dimensions of the target perpendicular to its direction of motion place no constraints on performance in such a task. In contrast, if the person is not constrained to move along a straight track, the targetrsquos dimensions may constrain the spatial as well as the temporal accuracy and precision. The experiments reported here examined how people responded to targets of different vertical extent (height): the task was to strike targets that moved along a straight, horizontal path. In experiment 1 participants were constrained to move along a horizontal linear track to strike targets and so target height did not constrain performance. Target height, length and speed were co-varied. Movement time (MT) was unaffected by target height but was systematically affected by length (briefer movements to smaller targets) and speed (briefer movements to faster targets). Peak movement speed (Vmax) was influenced by all three independent variables: participants struck shorter, narrower and faster targets harder. In experiment 2, participants were constrained to move in a vertical plane normal to the targetrsquos direction of motion. In this task target height constrains the spatial accuracy required to contact the target. Three groups of eight participants struck targets of different height but of constant length and speed, hence constant temporal accuracy demand (different for each group, one group struck stationary targets = no temporal accuracy demand). On average, participants showed little or no systematic response to changes in spatial accuracy demand on any dependent measure (MT, Vmax, spatial variable error). The results are interpreted in relation to previous results on movements aimed at stationary targets in the absence of visual feedback.

Intercepting a moving target: effects of temporal precision constraints and movement amplitude

The effects of temporal precision constraints and movement amplitude on performance of an interceptive aiming task were examined. Participants were required to strike a moving target object with a 'bat' by moving the bat along a straight path (constrained by a linear slide) perpendicular to the path of the target. Temporal precision constraints were defined in terms of the time period (or window) within which contact with the target was possible. Three time windows were used (approx. 35, 50 and 65 ms) and these were achieved either by manipulating the size of the bat (experiment 1a), the size of the target (experiment 1b) or the speed of the target (experiment 2). In all experiments, movement time (MT) increased in proportion to movement amplitude but was only affected by differences in the temporal precision constraint if this was achieved by variation in the target's speed. In this case the MT was approximately inversely proportional to target speed. Peak movement speed was affected by temporal accuracy constraints in all three experiments: participants reached higher speeds when the temporal precision required was greater. These results are discussed with reference to the speed-accuracy trade-off observed for temporally constrained aiming movements. It is suggested that the MT and speed of interceptive aiming movements may be understood as responses to the spatiotemporal constraints of the task.

Improved constraints on possible variation of physical constants from HI 21-cm and molecular QSO absorption lines

Quasar (QSO) absorption spectra provide an extremely useful probe of possible cosmological variation in various physical constants. Comparison of H i 21-cm absorption with corresponding molecular (rotational) absorption spectra allows us to constrain variation in , where α is the fine-structure constant and gp is the proton g-factor. We analyse spectra of two QSOs, PKS 1413+135 and TXS 0218+357, and derive values of at absorption redshifts of and 0.6847 by simultaneous fitting of the H i 21-cm and molecular lines. We find and respectively, indicating an insignificantly smaller y in the past. We compare our results with other constraints from the same two QSOs given recently by Drinkwater et al. and Carilli et al., and with our recent optical constraints, which indicated a smaller α at higher redshifts.