Application and evaluation of classification trees for screening unwanted plants

Risk assessment systems for introduced species are being developed and applied globally, but methods for rigorously evaluating them are still in their infancy. We explore classification and regression tree models as an alternative to the current Australian Weed Risk Assessment system, and demonstrate how the performance of screening tests for unwanted alien species may be quantitatively compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The optimal classification tree model for predicting weediness included just four out of a possible 44 attributes of introduced plants examined, namely: (i) intentional human dispersal of propagules; (ii) evidence of naturalization beyond native range; (iii) evidence of being a weed elsewhere; and (iv) a high level of domestication. Intentional human dispersal of propagules in combination with evidence of naturalization beyond a plants native range led to the strongest prediction of weediness. A high level of domestication in combination with no evidence of naturalization mitigated the likelihood of an introduced plant becoming a weed resulting from intentional human dispersal of propagules. Unlikely intentional human dispersal of propagules combined with no evidence of being a weed elsewhere led to the lowest predicted probability of weediness. The failure to include intrinsic plant attributes in the model suggests that either these attributes are not useful general predictors of weediness, or data and analysis were inadequate to elucidate the underlying relationship(s). This concurs with the historical pessimism that we will ever be able to accurately predict invasive plants. Given the apparent importance of propagule pressure (the number of individuals of an species released), future attempts at evaluating screening model performance for identifying unwanted plants need to account for propagule pressure when collating and/or analysing datasets. The classification tree had a cross-validated sensitivity of 93.6% and specificity of 36.7%. Based on the area under the ROC curve, the performance of the classification tree in correctly classifying plants as weeds or non-weeds was slightly inferior (Area under ROC curve = 0.83 +/- 0.021 (+/- SE)) to that of the current risk assessment system in use (Area under ROC curve = 0.89 +/- 0.018 (+/- SE)), although requires many fewer questions to be answered.

Mapping and characterising subtropical estuarine landscapes using aerial photography and GIS for potential application in wildlife conservation and management

Coarse-resolution thematic maps derived from remotely sensed data and implemented in GIS play an important role in coastal and marine conservation, research and management. Here, we describe an approach for fine-resolution mapping of land-cover types using aerial photography and ancillary GIs and ground data in a large (100 x 35 km) subtropical estuarine system (Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia). We have developed and implemented a classification scheme representing 24 coastal (subtidal, intertidal. mangrove, supratidal and terrestrial) cover types relevant to the ecology of estuarine animals, nekton and shorebirds. The accuracy of classifications of the intertidal and subtidal cover types, as indicated by the agreement between the mapped (predicted) and reference (ground) data, was 77-88%, depending on the zone and level of generalization required. The variability and spatial distribution of habitat mosaics (landscape types) across the mapped environment were assessed using K-means clustering and validated with Classification and Regression Tree models. Seven broad landscape types could be distinguished and ways of incorporating the information on landscape composition into site-specific conservation and field research are discussed. This research illustrates the importance and potential applications of fine-resolution mapping for conservation and management of estuarine habitats and their terrestrial and aquatic wildlife. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stochastic structure and individual-tree growth models

The majority of past and current individual-tree growth modelling methodologies have failed to characterise and incorporate structured stochastic components. Rather, they have relied on deterministic predictions or have added an unstructured random component to predictions. In particular, spatial stochastic structure has been neglected, despite being present in most applications of individual-tree growth models. Spatial stochastic structure (also called spatial dependence or spatial autocorrelation) eventuates when spatial influences such as competition and micro-site effects are not fully captured in models. Temporal stochastic structure (also called temporal dependence or temporal autocorrelation) eventuates when a sequence of measurements is taken on an individual-tree over time, and variables explaining temporal variation in these measurements are not included in the model. Nested stochastic structure eventuates when measurements are combined across sampling units and differences among the sampling units are not fully captured in the model. This review examines spatial, temporal, and nested stochastic structure and instances where each has been characterised in the forest biometry and statistical literature. Methodologies for incorporating stochastic structure in growth model estimation and prediction are described. Benefits from incorporation of stochastic structure include valid statistical inference, improved estimation efficiency, and more realistic and theoretically sound predictions. It is proposed in this review that individual-tree modelling methodologies need to characterise and include structured stochasticity. Possibilities for future research are discussed. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling pre-clearing vegetation distribution using GIS-integrated statistical, ecological and data models: A case study from the wet tropics of Northeastern Australia

Traditional vegetation mapping methods use high cost, labour-intensive aerial photography interpretation. This approach can be subjective and is limited by factors such as the extent of remnant vegetation, and the differing scale and quality of aerial photography over time. An alternative approach is proposed which integrates a data model, a statistical model and an ecological model using sophisticated Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques and rule-based systems to support fine-scale vegetation community modelling. This approach is based on a more realistic representation of vegetation patterns with transitional gradients from one vegetation community to another. Arbitrary, though often unrealistic, sharp boundaries can be imposed on the model by the application of statistical methods. This GIS-integrated multivariate approach is applied to the problem of vegetation mapping in the complex vegetation communities of the Innisfail Lowlands in the Wet Tropics bioregion of Northeastern Australia. The paper presents the full cycle of this vegetation modelling approach including sampling sites, variable selection, model selection, model implementation, internal model assessment, model prediction assessments, models integration of discrete vegetation community models to generate a composite pre-clearing vegetation map, independent data set model validation and model prediction's scale assessments. An accurate pre-clearing vegetation map of the Innisfail Lowlands was generated (0.83r(2)) through GIS integration of 28 separate statistical models. This modelling approach has good potential for wider application, including provision of. vital information for conservation planning and management; a scientific basis for rehabilitation of disturbed and cleared areas; a viable method for the production of adequate vegetation maps for conservation and forestry planning of poorly-studied areas. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A vulnerability analysis of the temperate forests of south central Chile A vulnerability analysis of the temperate forests of south central Chile. Biological Conservation, 122 2005: 9-21.

Areas of the landscape that are priorities for conservation should be those that are both vulnerable to threatening processes and that if lost or degraded, will result in conservation targets being compromised. While much attention is directed towards understanding the patterns of biodiversity, much less is given to determining the areas of the landscape most vulnerable to threats. We assessed the relative vulnerability of remaining areas of native forest to conversion to plantations in the ecologically significant temperate rainforest region of south central Chile. The area of the study region is 4.2 million ha and the extent of plantations is approximately 200000 ha. First, the spatial distribution of native forest conversion to plantations was determined. The variables related to the spatial distribution of this threatening process were identified through the development of a classification tree and the generation of a multivariate. spatially explicit, statistical model. The model of native forest conversion explained 43% of the deviance and the discrimination ability of the model was high. Predictions were made of where native forest conversion is likely to occur in the future. Due to patterns of climate, topography, soils and proximity to infrastructure and towns, remaining forest areas differ in their relative risk of being converted to plantations. Another factor that may increase the vulnerability of remaining native forest in a subset of the study region is the proposed construction of a highway. We found that 90% of the area of existing plantations within this region is within 2.5 km of roads. When the predictions of native forest conversion were recalculated accounting for the construction of this highway, it was found that: approximately 27000 ha of native forest had an increased probability of conversion. The areas of native forest identified to be vulnerable to conversion are outside of the existing reserve network. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All tights reserved.

Classification and analysis of integrating frameworks in multiscale modelling

Chemical engineers are turning to multiscale modelling to extend traditional modelling approaches into new application areas and to achieve higher levels of detail and accuracy. There is, however, little advice available on the best strategy to use in constructing a multiscale model. This paper presents a starting point for the systematic analysis of multiscale models by defining several integrating frameworks for linking models at different scales. It briefly explores how the nature of the information flow between the models at the different scales is influenced by the choice of framework, and presents some restrictions on model-framework compatibility. The concepts are illustrated with reference to the modelling of a catalytic packed bed reactor. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Unicellular pheromone glands of the pentatomid bug Nezara viridula (Heteroptera : Insecta): Ultrastructure, classification, and proposed function

Male Nezara viridula produce sex pheromones from many independent single cells, each with a duct that opens onto the ventral abdominal surface. Despite the presence of along duct and an associated end complex (in the form of a cupule and microvillus saccule), the structural organization of the cells that comprise the gland conform to Class 1 epidermal gland cell classification : a single cell surrounds the entire secretory complex. Each cuticular cupule contains a central bed of filaments and opens into a narrow tubular ductule that leads from the base of the cupule through the epidermis to the cuticle to open externally as a pore. The cuticle of the cupule is continuous with that of the ductule and has the appearance of three layers, although the inner (middle) layer may be a gap formed during construction of the complex. In young adult males, just molted, the ultrastructure of the cells and their inclusions indicate that they are not active. The region of the cell that is distal to the abdominal cuticle is reduced and the proximal region, surrounding the duct, is enlarged when compared with sexually mature (3-4 weeks old) adult males. At maturity the pheromone cells are enlarged distally around the cupule, but are reduced to a narrow sleeve proximally, around the ductule. Two characteristic cell profiles are evident, based on the shape of the cupule and the organelle content. Type A shows a broad opening to the cupule, an abundance of mitochondria, and few vesicular bodies. Type B has an elongated, narrow, vase-like opening to the cupule, few mitochondria, and numerous vesicular bodies. Type B cells are smaller and more abundant than Type A. Distribution within the epidermal layer also differs. It is likely that the different types represent cells producing different secretion profiles. However, the secretions retained by the standard fixation protocol within mature cells of both types look similar and appear to collect as crystalline bodies within the lumen. This may represent a common storage mechanism.

Tuning pattern classifier parameters using a genetic algorithm with an application in mobile robotics

Support vector machines (SVMs) have recently emerged as a powerful technique for solving problems in pattern classification and regression. Best performance is obtained from the SVM its parameters have their values optimally set. In practice, good parameter settings are usually obtained by a lengthy process of trial and error. This paper describes the use of genetic algorithm to evolve these parameter settings for an application in mobile robotics.

The public's knowledge of and support for conservation of Australia's Tree-Kangaroos

After providing some brief background on Dendrolagus species in Australia, two consecutive surveys of Brisbane’s residents are used to assess public knowledge of tree-kangaroos and the stated degree of support for their conservation in Australia. The responses of participants in Survey I are based on their pre-survey knowledge of wildlife. The same additional set of participants completed Survey II after being provided with information on all the wildlife species mentioned in Survey I. Changes in the attitudes of respondents and their degree of support for the protection and conservation of Australia’s tree-kangaroos are measured, including changes in their contingent valuations and stated willingness to provide financial support for such conservation. Reasons for wanting to protect tree-kangaroos are specified and analyzed. Furthermore, changes that occur in the relative importance of these reasons with increased knowledge are also examined. Support for the conservation of tree-kangaroos is found to increase with the additional knowledge supplied. Furthermore, support for the conservation of Australia’s less well-known tropical mammals is shown to increase relative to better known mammals (icons) present in temperate areas, such as koalas and red kangaroos with this increased knowledge. Possible implications of the results for government conservation policies in Australia are examined.

Phylogeny and classification of the Digenea (Platyhelminthes : Trematoda)

Complete small subunit ribosomal RNA gene (ssrDNA) and partial (D1-D3) large subunit ribosomal RNA gene (lsrDNA) sequences were used to estimate the phylogeny of the Digenea via maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference. Here we contribute 80 new ssrDNA and 124 new lsrDNA sequences. Fully complementary data sets of the two genes were assembled from newly generated and previously published sequences and comprised 163 digenean taxa representing 77 nominal families and seven aspidogastrean outgroup taxa representing three families. Analyses were conducted on the genes independently as well as combined and separate analyses including only the higher plagiorchiidan taxa were performed using a reduced-taxon alignment including additional characters that could not be otherwise unambiguously aligned. The combined data analyses yielded the most strongly supported results and differences between the two methods of analysis were primarily in their degree of resolution. The Bayesian analysis including all taxa and characters, and incorporating a model of nucleotide substitution (general-time-reversible with among-site rate heterogeneity), was considered the best estimate of the phylogeny and was used to evaluate their classification and evolution. In broad terms, the Digenea forms a dichotomy that is split between a lineage leading to the Brachylaimoidea, Diplostomoidea and Schistosomatoidea (collectively the Diplostomida nomen novum (nom. nov.)) and the remainder of the Digenea (the Plagiorchiida), in which the Bivesiculata nom. nov. and Transversotremata nom. nov. form the two most basal lineages, followed by the Hemiurata. The remainder of the Plagiorchiida forms a large number of independent lineages leading to the crown clade Xiphidiata nom. nov. that comprises the Allocreadioidea, Gorgoderoidea, Microphalloidea and Plagiorchioidea, which are united by the presence of a penetrating stylet in their cercariae. Although a majority of families and to a lesser degree, superfamilies are supported as currently defined, the traditional divisions of the Echinostomida, Plagiorchiida and Strigeida were found to comprise non-natural assemblages. Therefore, the membership of established higher taxa are emended, new taxa erected and a revised, phylogenetically based classification proposed and discussed in light of ontogeny, morphology and taxonomic history. (C) 2003 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

The public's knowledge of and support for conservation of Australia's tree-kangaroos and other animals

After providing background on Dendrolagus species in Australia, two consecutive surveys of Brisbane's residents are used to assess public knowledge of tree-kangaroos and the stated degree of support for their conservation in Australia. The responses of participants in Survey I are based on their pre-survey knowledge of wildlife. The same set of participants completed Survey II after being provided with additional information on all the wildlife species mentioned in Survey I. Changes in the attitudes of respondents and their degree of support for the protection and conservation of Australia's tree-kangaroos are measured, including changes in their contingent valuations and stated willingness to provide financial support for such conservation. Reasons for wanting to protect tree-kangaroos are specified and analysed. Furthermore, changes that occur in the relative importance of these reasons with increased knowledge are also examined. Support for the conservation of tree-kangaroos is found to rise with the additional knowledge supplied about all species and is compared with variations in support for protection of other mammals. Support for the conservation of Australia's less well known tropical mammals is found to increase relative to better known mammals (icons) present in temperate areas, such as koalas and red kangaroos. Possible implications of the results for government conservation policies in Australia are examined.