Structural change in macroeconomic time series: A complex systems perspective

We demonstrate that the process of generating smooth transitions Call be viewed as a natural result of the filtering operations implied in the generation of discrete-time series observations from the sampling of data from an underlying continuous time process that has undergone a process of structural change. In order to focus discussion, we utilize the problem of estimating the location of abrupt shifts in some simple time series models. This approach will permit its to address salient issues relating to distortions induced by the inherent aggregation associated with discrete-time sampling of continuous time processes experiencing structural change, We also address the issue of how time irreversible structures may be generated within the smooth transition processes. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A generalized Markov sampler

A recent development of the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique is the emergence of MCMC samplers that allow transitions between different models. Such samplers make possible a range of computational tasks involving models, including model selection, model evaluation, model averaging and hypothesis testing. An example of this type of sampler is the reversible jump MCMC sampler, which is a generalization of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Here, we present a new MCMC sampler of this type. The new sampler is a generalization of the Gibbs sampler, but somewhat surprisingly, it also turns out to encompass as particular cases all of the well-known MCMC samplers, including those of Metropolis, Barker, and Hastings. Moreover, the new sampler generalizes the reversible jump MCMC. It therefore appears to be a very general framework for MCMC sampling. This paper describes the new sampler and illustrates its use in three applications in Computational Biology, specifically determination of consensus sequences, phylogenetic inference and delineation of isochores via multiple change-point analysis.

Mapping hippocampal and ventricular change in Alzheimer disease

We developed an anatomical mapping technique to detect hippocampal and ventricular changes in Alzheimer disease (AD). The resulting maps are sensitive to longitudinal changes in brain structure as the disease progresses. An anatomical surface modeling approach was combined with surface-based statistics to visualize the region and rate of atrophy in serial MRI scans and isolate where these changes link with cognitive decline. Fifty-two high-resolution MRI scans were acquired from 12 AD patients (age: 68.4 +/- 1.9 years) and 14 matched controls (age: 71.4 +/- 0.9 years), each scanned twice (2.1 +/- 0.4 years apart). 3D parametric mesh models of the hippocampus and temporal horns were created in sequential scans and averaged across subjects to identify systematic patterns of atrophy. As an index of radial atrophy, 3D distance fields were generated relating each anatomical surface point to a medial curve threading down the medial axis of each structure. Hippocampal atrophic rates and ventricular expansion were assessed statistically using surface-based permutation testing and were faster in AD than in controls. Using color-coded maps and video sequences, these changes were visualized as they progressed anatomically over time. Additional maps localized regions where atrophic changes linked with cognitive decline. Temporal horn expansion maps were more sensitive to AD progression than maps of hippocampal atrophy, but both maps correlated with clinical deterioration. These quantitative, dynamic visualizations of hippocampal atrophy and ventricular expansion rates in aging and AD may provide a promising measure to track AD progression in drug trials. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A picrotoxin-specific conformational change in the glycine receptor M2-M3 loop.

The external loop linking the M2 and M3 transmembrane domains is crucial for coupling agonist binding to channel gating in the glycine receptor chloride channel (GlyR). A substituted cysteine accessibility scan previously showed that glycine activation increased the surface accessibility of 6 contiguous residues (Arg(271) Lys(276)) toward the N-terminal end of the homomeric alpha 1 GlyR M2 - M3 loop. In the present study we used a similar approach to determine whether the allosteric antagonist, picrotoxin, could impose conformational changes to this domain that cannot be induced by varying agonist concentrations alone. Picrotoxin slowed the reaction rate of a sulfhydryl-containing compound ( MTSET) with A272C, S273C, and L274C. Before interpreting this as a picrotoxin-specific conformational change, it was necessary to eliminate the possibility of steric competition between picrotoxin and MTSET. Accordingly, we showed that picrotoxin and the structurally unrelated blocker, bilobalide, were both trapped in the R271C GlyR in the closed state and that a point mutation to the pore-lining Thr(6') residue abolished inhibition by both compounds. We also demonstrated that the picrotoxin dissociation rate was linearly related to the channel open probability. These observations constitute a strong case for picrotoxin binding in the pore. We thus conclude that the picrotoxin-specific effects on the M2 - M3 loop are mediated allosterically. This suggests that the M2 - M3 loop responds differently to the occupation of different binding sites.

Voices of lay principals: Promoting a Catholic character and culture in schools in an era of change

This paper reports a qualitative study of the practice of leadership in Catholic schools to ascertain the perceptions of lay principals, who as positional leaders play a critical role in embracing and creatively rebuilding the Catholic vision of life within the reality that the Catholic school principalship is now a ministry of the laity. The methodology included semi-structured interviews, field notes, reflexive journals, direct observation, and document nalysis. The study examined both individual human behaviour and the structure of the social order in Catholic schools. The findings point towards successful leadership in Catholic schools being highly influenced by the cultural and spiritual capital that a principal brings to a school signifying a fundamental importance of appointing principals who are not only professionally competent but spiritually as well. In an era of unprecedented social, educational and ecclesial change, and with an ever widening role description, lay principals are challenged to redefine and re-articulate their Catholic character and identity, and will need to look for new ways to make this explicit. Embracing a new leadership paradigm of shared leadership, the preparation and on-going formation of lay principals were identified as critical for the continuance of the Catholic school’s distinctive mission in the future.